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Thursday, June 16, 2016

One year ago today, 538 made this bold prediction

Today also is the anniversary of Trump entering the race.

He was not on the roster of either team in the NBA Finals. No "Home Alone" sequel is planned. Sad.

Coming soon -- "Trump the Press: Don Surber's take on how the pundits blew the 2016 Republican race."


  1. There's no question that Trump has "won the nomination" by virtue of the number of delegates he has earned in the primaries. I am having doubts, however, that he will actually come out of the Convention as the nominee. The GOPe, and especially Paul Ryan, are clearly against his candidacy. Since Ryan is in charge of rule making for the convention it is entirely possible that the rules will change on the eve of the convention. Kind of like GOP Calvin Ball.

  2. Yesterday one of my sons described a letter written by Penn Gillette after he'd been on Trump's reality show. In it Gillette talks about how reality TV is scripted and contrived, and how refreshing it was not to have seen anything like on the set of Trump's show, going so far as to compliment Trump on his genuineness as a person both off and on the set. Keep in mind that this is Penn Gillette talking. A guy who does magic for a living and is an expert at bullshit detection, and this was written long before any talk about a presidential bid (by the way, making a bid for the presidency sounds like calling out a price at an auction. Funny how one of the low bidders is walking away with the goods this time). People making fun of Trump now sound like the guys showing Bedtime for Bonzo in every F*ck*ng college dorm in America and Reagan as host of Death Valley Days back in the late 70's. Did work then and it won't work now.

    1. Didn't work then and it won't work now. Damn autocorrect.

  3. Making predictiions is easy. Predicting about the future, with near-infinite variables, and getting close to right, is really hard. 538 proves that by failing.

  4. Funny, the campaign managers knew different by Labor Day.

  5. Like an old friend of mine used to say, roughly...I'd rather produce results than make predictions...

  6. The oft-wrong 538 should stick to post-dictions instead of pre-dictions.

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