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Tuesday, June 07, 2016

Getting skepticism half right

"Why you should never blindly trust the official unemployment rate," read the headline in The Week

Well, the publication got it half right.

From Jeff Ross, its economics and business correspondent:
The unemployment rate dropped a remarkable 0.3 percentage points: It was 5 percent in April, and fell to 4.7 percent in May.
Which sounds great!
But only 38,000 jobs were created last month. That's absolutely abysmal. It's likely the Verizon strike temporarily eliminated 35,000 to 40,000 jobs in May, which will return now that the strike is over. But even that would've only brought May's count to just under 80,000 new jobs. By comparison, 2015 averaged 221,000 jobs per month, and 2014 averaged 260,000 per month. On top of that, job creation numbers for both March and April were revised down for a total loss of 59,000.
Which is not good at all.
The way to make sense of these two conflicting indicators is to realize the unemployment rate is not always the best indicator of the economy's health. In fact, it's probably a much worse indicator right now than it's been in a long time.
His column is more of a defense of Official Washington's deliberate lies -- "So we've got the metrics to tell us how well the economy is (or isn't) doing. We just have to be more flexible about which ones we use" -- but he's young. Maybe he will learn from this.

The government lies continual to push a socialist agenda in which the nation is controlled by the central government. This is not paranoia on my part. I am retired. Thus, this really does not effect me as much as it used to.

But let us take a look at two favorite lies: that the world is turning into crispy critters unless the government controls the energy industry, and that nearly 50 million Americans are without health insurance, which is why the central government must require and regulate health insurance, and ultimately the medical industry. (Hint: the medical industry wants this because it will hit the financial jackpot.)

From Watts Up With That:
As repeated frequently by the mainstream media since April 2015, NOAA and NASA officially declared that 2015 was hotter than 2014, the old hottest year on record and “promised” that 2016 could be hotter than 2015! However, the are undeniable evidences indicating that the average global temperatures calculated by NOAA and NASA appear to be inaccurate, unreliable and inconsistent with the satellite data.
According to data on the NOAA website, 1997 was truly the hottest year on record at 62.45 oF. The average global temperature in 2015 was 58.62F or 3.83F below the 1997 temperature.
According to data on the NOAA website, the parameters such as the 20th century average temperature and the annual temperature anomalies, which must be constants, have varying values in the annual global analyses.
NOAA and NASA corrected historical temperature data and fabricated temperature data in areas without temperature record systematically, widely, and uni-directionally to “cool” the past in an attempt to prove the soaring temperature trend.
NOAA and NASA made efforts to discredit their own satellite data – which is consistent with the balloon data – because it suggests a global warming hiatus since 1998 contradicting with the NOAA and NASA preferred narrative.
NOAA and NASA refused to give data and information requested by the US House of Representatives Science, Space and Technology committee. There is no reason for them to withhold the data and information, which are public domain, unless they have something to hide.
The headline “last year was the hottest year on record, this year is hotter than last year, and next year could be hotter than this year” is likely to be repeated years after years by the mainstream media until funding for climate change is stopped!
Logic asks how can you declare a year the hottest year ever only four months into a year?

Then there is the fake number that nearly 50 million American citizens were without health insurance. This was based on a faulty Census Bureau survey of a few thousand people, which asked if that person had been without health insurance for any period in the past year. This could be a few days. The poll also included illegal aliens and other non-citizens, as well as people eligible for Medicaid who had not bothered to sign up..

From Mona Charen:
The notion that the nation faced a “crisis” of “46 million uninsured” was dishonest. Pre-Obamacare health care in America was hardly nirvana, but the truth about the uninsured, according to the Congressional Budget Office, was that 71 percent were without insurance for a year or less. Only about 16 percent were uninsured for two or more years. More than 9 million of those counted among the uninsured were not citizens. Another 6 million who said they were without insurance actually were signed up with Medicaid, and 4 million more were eligible for Medicaid but had failed to enroll.
The true number of the uninsured was closer to 15 million (5 million of whom were young, single adults). There were many possible solutions for them that didn’t require tearing down the entire system. In any case, the CBO estimates that even if Obamacare were fully implemented, and worked smoothly, the number of uninsured Americans in 2023 would be, drumroll please, 30 million. Obamacare was never about the uninsured, or justice for those badly treated by insurance companies. It was always about power — gaining it and keeping it for the Democratic party and the central government. It was based on lies about the preceding system and sold on lies about its consequences.
The Census Bureau no longer asks the question. How convenient.


  1. Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics.

    1. From liars, miscreants, bamboozlers, and persons of bad, Bad, BAD repute.

  2. The U.S. government has long been a practitioner of lying to the citizenry. The Obama administration simply perfected the technique and doesn't give a damn when it is caught lying. - Elric

  3. At the time the Obamacare legislation was being proposed and discussed, the number of true uninsured was 12 million. This is a bit smaller than the 15 million cited by Charen, but I remember the number very well. It was seared, seared!, I tell you, in my mind. All the other numbers regarding the temporarily uninsured, the Medicaid enrollment, the illegals, etc., are consistent with what I remember. The bottom line is there are more people who TRULY do not have health insurance today than there were before the law was passed. Obama's legacy is that he wrecked the health system and made it so more people lost their health insurance than gained it.

  4. Which is why Donald Trump is doing so well.

  5. The left are like the guy my late Dad described: "He'd lie if the truth sounded better."

  6. David Stockman is not a fan of the fed or our government:

    --Yellen can indulge in her paint-by-the-numbers delusion that the BLS’ primitive one-job-one-vote surveys measure the health of the US economy all she wants. But that doesn’t negate the fact that goods production is at the center of economic output and wealth creation even in today’s economy, and that most so-called services like shipping, warehousing, retailing, business management and contract support etc.depend upon the flow of goods production and the high incomes it generates.

    As shown below, there were 19.625 million jobs in construction, mining/energy and manufacturing during May. That’s 2.2 million lower than in December 2007 and is 5 million or 20% less than the number of such core jobs posted in January 2000.--

    The link has several very interesting graphs about the real American economy:

  7. The actual unemployment rate is in the double digits. We have been in a jobs recession for over eight years. Obummercare exacerbated the problem.

  8. It was based on lies about the preceding system and sold on lies about its consequences.

    You don't say!

    Democrat's lies about Urklecare:
    1) lower costs
    2) cut the deficit
    3) crafted in open on CSPAN
    4) cover everyone
    5) its constitutional
    6) online 5 days prior to signing
    7) like your doctor/plan keep it
    8) no tax increase for under 250k/yr
    9) not an abortion bill
    10) illegals not covered
    11) not a tax
    12) bi-partisan
    13) create millions of new jobs
    14) allow imported meds
    15) 35 - 40 million uninsured
    16) reduce ER crowding
    17) increase competition