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Wednesday, March 02, 2016

Trump puts Northeast in play

The national polls say if the election were held tomorrow, Hillary would cream The Donald.

Fortunately, the election will not be held for another 8 months. And we know what the polls said 8 months ago: Trump was too hated by Republicans to win even one state.

But Super Tuesday was the gully washer that cleared the field. Emerging as dry as a Steven Wright punchline was the 2016 nominee, Donald Trump. He took everything except Ted Cruz's home state of Texas, and Oklahoma and Alaska. Good for him. Good for Ted Cruz, too. (And it was nice of Trump to congratulate him.)

The Republican Establishment's boy, Marco Rubio took one state. Minnesota. So did Walter Mondale.

Call him Fritz Rubio.

He should go home but as long as donors are dumb enough to fund him he will spend their money on ads so the consultants can get their cut of the action.

Republicans on Tuesday sealed the deal. Republicans are having their Come To The Donald moments. Chris Christie was first. Then Jeff Sessions. Jan Brewer. Today is supposed to be Rick Scott's turn.

Trump is looking to November and it looks pretty good to him. He brought in enough Democrats and independents to put New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania in play. He won nine of the 10 contests east of the Mississippi thus far.

I cannot think of one state that Hillary puts in play. Her task is to hang on to Barack Obama's base. That is it. Now she starts out with 332 Electoral College votes, which is 62 over the minimum. But losing Florida, Iowa, Ohio, and Wisconsin makes it a tie -- 269-269 -- which puts the race in the House, where Congress votes not as individuals but states . Republicans likely will control at least 26 state congressional delegations.

The Donald can let her have those states win by adding New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania -- 280 to 258. But after 8 years of Barack Obama, I think he can win all 8 of those states: Florida, Iowa, New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

But it is early and I got the general elections in 2008 and 2012 wrong.

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  1. Actually Rubio won a state, Minnesota.
    Trump won the others probably due to all the campaigning Sarah Palin has done for him lately. Trump will dump Christie very soon as well once New Jersey and surrounding states are secured. Hmmm, Trump "brought in enough Democrats and independents to put New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania in play." Excellent, this means Trump is ready to abandon his so-called conservatism to wheel and deal with Pelosi and Reid?
    Disgruntled Rs want to send a message to the "R establishment" (whatever that is) and Trump is the way. We've dumbed this country down in so many other ways, why not president.

    1. You sound like you would be better off drowning yourself in a toilet. How can anyone be so self assuredly smug and so depressed at the same time? Did you take lessons?

    2. Whatever happened to the Tea Party? Supposively they won over both houses of Congress but haven't been heard from since.

    3. The Tea Party seemed to be run by Libertarians and, as always happens with Libertarians, they gave up and went home when challenged.

    4. I never was actually a member. I chose this name out of respect for them. Something you two shitheads could learn a little about.

    5. Love the foul language. Thank you for conceding.

  2. I live in a rural/urban area 50 miles north of Denver. We had a large turnout for the caucus. We had 30 people in my caucus. People could talk about their preference for President. Several talked against Trump, even stating that they would vote Hillary first. No one supported Rubio. The final vote had it 23 for Cruz, 4 Trump, 3 Rubio. This was non binding, but certainly expressed the sentiments of the area. No idea how other caucus votes went.

  3. Exactly. NY is his second best state, supposedly.

    And now both Cruz and the Whigs are talking about uniting against Trump.

    Talk about a devil's bargain, wonder how the Cruzzers would explain that one away.

    1. The same way one would in any other circumstance: make the best choice you can make given what's on the menu.

      Marco Rubio and John Kasich have a portfolio of shortcomings. The Devil they are not.

  4. What are you talking about? The public polls reported on Real Clear Politics vary but the put the distance between them at 3.5% of the electorate. The surveys of this sort that are being done now have confidence intervals of +/- 3.0%

  5. Trump can win the presidential election going away with one simple message, "I know how to create jobs. After 8 years of the Democrats' failed policies have destroyed your jobs, I will put America back to work."

    1. All candidates say they will put Americans back to work. What is rarely said - especially from Trump - is "how."
      I'm just wondering if Trump is going to deport all the illegal immigrants working for any of his holdings.

    2. Deregulation would be a good start. Driving production overseas is a really bad idea.

  6. I'm not the biggest Trump fan around, but anyone looking at national polls now saying he can't win is crazy.

    He will pivot and adjust his message, he will find the sweet spots, he will bring in Democrats, and I think he absolutely can win.

    He might lose too - nothing is sure - but anyone underestimating him still based on the last 8 months experience is a blinded Hillary optimist.

    He has the potential - it is not a sure thing - he has the potential to survive even a brutal onslaught by the MSM.

    And he will be made to look horrible, and the MSM will be desperate to do so. But perhaps so desperate that they shuck off their last vestige of credibility even with even the lowest engaged voters ... and lose the impact they might otherwise have.

    Everybody, even Trump, can be damaged by a full-on MSM negative messaging campaign. I also think he can survive it, and is just savvy enough to hoist them by their own petard.

    Even as a non-fan, I would enjoy watching that happen. Which tells you something about not underestimating his appeal ...

  7. Here's how crazy this whole thing is: 6 months ago, my 81 year old dad said that he would move to Canada if Hillary won. A week ago, he said he would move to Canada if Trump won. Jesus God, Dad...


    It's time to end the war on personal freedom. Prohibition never works, as the past as proven time and time again. And the demand for prostitution will never go away, hence it is the world's oldest profession. It's high time to LEGALIZE IT, both for the sake of the women who engage in prostitution and the men who buy it.

    Contrary to false beliefs, the vast majority of women who engage in prostitution do so voluntarily. Therefore why should they not be allowed to legally trade sex for money? Also, legalizing prostitution would eliminate human trafficking since the very small percentage of women who are forced into prostitution would be able to go to the police for help. It would also eliminate the need for dangerous pimps.

    What about STDs? Actually you are far more likely to get an STD with a regular girl since people tend to use condoms less with regular women. With prostitutes, condoms are a necessity and therefore the risk of STDs is zero. The whole STD scare has been blown way out of proportion in order to make people afraid of sex.

    Studies also prove that when prostitution is legal, the number of rapes dwindles to practically zero. By keeping prostitution illegal, we are actually causing more women to be raped.

    But the core issue is that we have NO RIGHT to tell two consenting adults that they cannot trade sex for money. It's time to legalize prostitution!