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Thursday, February 11, 2016

Trump and Rubio lead Florida's winner-takes-all primary

South Carolina and Nevada are nice, but the Florida primary (for Republicans) is winner takes all 99 delegates. This vote on March 15 likely will decide the fate of Donald John Trump, and heck, everyone else. The voting already has begun as ballots are in the mail to half the voters, who can chose between mailing it in and voting in person.

I do not believe in polls as much this year as I have in the past, but I found this one interesting.

From Florida politics:
Donald Trump leads in Florida, but Marco Rubio is in second place, according to a new poll from Florida Southern College.
The survey found Trump maintains the top spot in Florida among registered Republican voters with 27 percent. Rubio is in second with 20 percent, followed by Ted Cruz at 12 percent and Ben Carson at 6 percent. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is fifth with 4 percent, according to the survey.
In a hypothetical general election match-up, the survey found Florida voters would pick Rubio over Hillary Clinton, 45 percent to 43 percent. In a head-to-head match up, Clinton would defeat Trump, 45  percent to 38 percent.
The Florida Southern College Poll also found that, among registered Florida voters, Bush would edge out Clinton, 45 percent to 42 percent.
On the Democratic side, Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 43 percent to 26 percent.
The 7-point lead by Trump is much smaller than in previous polls taken before Iowa. However, this one also predates New Hampshire. My point is Florida is important. With Carson likely backing Rubio, and good showings by Rubio in South Carolina and other states, he has the best path to victory among the Republican Establishment candidates.

Florida likely is where the Republican nomination process ends.

Meanwhile, I think the Democratic race ended in New Hampshire. But as always, we shall see.

1 comment:

  1. The big Florida question is who will the old Jewish grandmas go for: Hillary or Bernie? They have a very high voter turnout. (Since probably 99% of the Jewish grandmas are Democrats, it is a moot question on the Republican side.)