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Tuesday, February 16, 2016

All those endorsements and Rubio's best hope is third place?

From 538:
The Endorsement Primary
In presidential primaries, endorsements have been among the best predictors of which candidates will succeed and which will fail. So we’re keeping track.
The site said Marco Rubio is in first place with 75 endorsement points, followed by 51 for Jeb Bush, 36 for Chris Christie, 25 for Mike Huckabee, 20 for John Kasich, 19 for Ted Cruz, and ZERO for Ben Carson and Donald Trump.

So far that Endorsement Primary is about as accurate as a climate change model.

But there is still plenty of time.

And the Rubio-Bush match-up is what all the insiders focus on. From Politico:
As the bruising Republican primary fight moves south, the rivalry between Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio is nearing a turning point.
Rubio’s advisers see South Carolina as something close to make-or-break after a disastrous fifth-place showing in the New Hampshire deeply wounded his candidacy. Bush, whose campaign has found new life in recent days, is trying to notch his second consecutive victory over Rubio – something his team hopes would sideline his rival as competition in the center-right lane.
Indeed, while Donald Trump and Ted Cruz duel for first, the battle between these Floridians has become a primary of its own, with the loser likely to face significant pressure from donors to plot an exit from the race, according to sources close to both men.
So the two who dominate that Endorsement Primary are battling for third.

But others say Rubio can win on Saturday:
“Rubio’s foreign policy experience and expertise – especially in the fight against ISIS – clearly shows he is the best candidate,” said Diana Mutschink of Rock Hill. “I started out torn between Rubio and Carson, but Rubio shows that he knows far more about foreign policy and defense and is best prepared to protect the country.”
Mutschink also was enamored by Rubio’s “passionate love for this country,” which she believes inspires others like her to take a second look at Rubio.
“He has a patriotism and deep love for this country that is incredible,” Mutschink said.
The difference in crowds was marked, when compared to Trump’s concert-like event last month before 6,500 people at Winthrop Coliseum, or Ted Cruz preaching in front of 2,000 evangelicals Thursday night in Fort Mill.
The more than 400 supporters at Rubio’s event were measured and reserved. He spoke at length, rambling at times, to explain policy stances that most campaign rallies don’t make time for.
Let's see, 6,500 versus 2,000 versus 400. That may be a little more important than getting 75 endorsement points.

But we shall see. The poll that counts is held at the polls on Saturday. My only prediction is that the one who gets the most votes likely will win.


  1. The Establishment candidates receive endorsements from party insiders; the Insurgent candidates do not.

    Surprise, surprise, surprise.

    -Mikey NTH

  2. "My only prediction is that the one who gets the most votes likely will win."

    You can't count on that in the dem race.

  3. Well, I live in SC, and I'm voting for Rubio on Saturday. He is the only one that the polls consistently show beating Hillary Clinton--which is my overriding #1 goal this year

    1. Polls are like a Trojan Horse. They may want you to think one thing, but may have other, dishonest goals in mind. Choose the candidate whose ideas you like best. Don't try to game play the election vote. The person whose platform appeals to you best may also be the favorite candidate of many others like you. A winning majority is built one supporter and one vote at a time.

  4. Endorsements racing to last place finish.

  5. Endorsements from politicians whose policies got us into this mess.