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Monday, January 18, 2016

Cruz dropped 6 points in Iowa Poll (still leads)

I have downplayed polls this presidential election cycle because Gallup gave up on them. But they help sell newspapers, which is why the Des Moines Register still runs its Iowa Poll. It is wildly inaccurate and volatile. In August, Scott Walker was running second in the Iowa Poll, but he dropped out nonetheless.

Let us look at the Iowa Poll then.

The latest Iowa Poll shows Cruz 25%, Trump 22%, Rubio 12%, Carson 11%, et cetera.

The previous one had Cruz 31%, Trump 21% -- a drop of 6 points for Cruz.

The one before that had Carson 28%, Trump 19%.

Before that: Trump 23%, Carson 18%.

So one consistency is Trump gets 19% to 23%.

The other is that no matter how Trump soars in the national polls, he s always in that 19% to 23% range, while the others rise and fall in synchronization with their national polls.

We shall see, shall we not?


  1. The corn as fuel subsidy issue?

    1. I really doubt it but who knows. Polls are crazy. This is a real volatile one

  2. Agreed. The very last Des Moines Register poll right before the 2012 Iowa caucus was wrong, wrong, wrong on every candidate - democrat & republican.

  3. Word is Cruz has been building his ground game. Trump apparently is playing the national media. Most often the ground game is decisive.

    1. ... and Trump is slowly losing steam among the national conservative media, starting with Rush. How much affect will it have on Trump ... all to be seen. People need to remember H. Ross (who was Trump before Trump was Trump) was leading Bush I and Clinton in many polls well into the '92 primary season. But once it was time to actually casts votes, voters got rationale and casted the comic candidate aside.

    2. Don says Twitter is The Donald's ground game.

      If true, it would dump conventional politics on its head.

      As for Perot, he got enough votes to throw the election to Willie. Keep that in mind, also.

    3. If one were to read Trump's Twitter posts without knowing who is writing them, one would think it was a spoiled teenage brat was the author. If that is why Trump is so successful in this campaign, that doesn't say much about this country.

    4. Yes, Perot threw the election like Trump will throw it to the D nominee, most likely Hillary. As a Surber post noted awhile back - George Will was the author being quoted - Romney and McCain won just as much of the white, male vote as any R presidential candidate before them. Until Rs can bridge the gap with minorities (not win, bridge it), the Ds will win. Cruz and Rubio could beat the D nomination. not Trump. I like Christie best as he is the only one with first-hand knowledge and experience of dealing with terrorism but nobody sees that. They just read Trump's tweets instead. Sad.

  4. Trump is about 2 behind Cruz, supposedly.

    If he does that well in the caucuses, it will be a big blow to Cruz.

    as history shows, you don't always have to win IA to claim victory there.