All errors should be reported to DonSurber@gmail.com

Wednesday, June 27, 2018

Will it be 2010 or 2016 again?

For a party with a comfortable lead in the generic congressional poll, Democrats sure are panicked. They should be. On Tuesday, the under-30 Bernie Bros did well in Democratic primaries, toppling the chairman of the House Democratic Caucus.

The party's congressional leadership does not have a single Baby Boomer in it. That's because Pelosi, Hoyer, and Clyburn are all older than the Baby Boomers.

To try to win over the Young Communists in their party, leadership trotted out Maxine Waters this weekend to beta test a message of using intimidation with threats of violence against Cabinet members. In so doing, they are unleashing the forces that will destroy their party.

Meanwhile, President Trump is using this summer to hold campaign rallies like he did in 2015 and 2016. He's smiles. He's confident. He's funny. He's in charge. Republicans have a leader.

Democrats are decapitating theirs.

President Trump is not just keeping promises on the economy and world affairs. He's bringing fun back into politics. People like fun.

Meg Kinnard of the Associated Press reported on the pre-game show before Monday's rally in South Carolina.

"Sitting next to Jim Acosta is the ... ahem ... 'best' seat in the house. Frequent chanting of 'CNN sucks' and 'Go home, Jim,' after which many have then asked for selfies and autographs," she tweeted.

"This went on for several minutes as many in the crowd cheered her on. As someone who’s covered my share of Trump rallies, it feels like 2016 all over again."

And that is one thread of the tapestry that will be the 2018 election. President Trump swung and missed in Alabama's special election in 2017.

But in 2016 he did well for the ticket. Republicans won the 22 Senate races in Trump states -- and lost the 12 that were in Hillary states.

A repeat of that would net Republicans a gain of 9 seats for a filibuster-proof majority.

The House seems a more daunting challenge. Republicans had a net loss of five seats in 2016. Republicans would gladly keep their losses at five this time as midterms can be disastrous for the party in power.

But the way Democrats have behaved inspired me to predict in April -- six months out -- that Republicans would add seats in the Senate and hold the House (maybe adding a few House seats).

We shall see.

I got 2010 right, 2012 wrong, 2014 right, and 2016 right.

Right now, the feeling is a repet of 2016, but what happens if Republicans repeat 2010 when they had a net gain of 63 seats in the House and six in the Senate (seven if you include Scott Brown's upset in Massachusetts that January)?

Going from 179 seats to 242 was easier than going from 235 to 298 would be, so I doubt that will happen.

But ending up with a modest net gain of seven seats to get back to 242 would change the House dramatically because 36 Republicans are not seeking re-election in the House, as are 18 Democrats.

Those 54 open seats are a key to control of the House. If Republicans are able to replace all 36 of the departing Republicans and add seven more, you would have 43 Republican freshmen. They would overall be more loyal to President Trump and less enamored of House leadership.

Add to that the departure of Arizona's twin RINOs and Bob Corker, likely replaced by Republicans, and the second half of President Trump's first term would be far easier than the first half.

President Trump could go into the 2020 campaign with a full head of steam.

But 'tis a long, long way to Tipperary and November.

For now, kick back and enjoy the show. Maxine Waters is flipping her wig, Democrats are madder than a wet Red Hen, and President Trump is on the road hitting home runs, and touching all the bases.

Meg Kinnard of the Associated Press said it feels like 2016. My head agrees. My heart wants a 2010 outcome. Democrats do not deserve anything close to parity in Congress.

The RNC is getting its ducks in a row.




###

Please enjoy my books in paperback and on Kindle.

Trump the Press covers the nomination.

Trump the Establishment covers the election.

Fake News Follies of 2017 covers his first year as president.

For autographed copies, write me at DonSurber@gmail.com

17 comments:

  1. Most presidents, especially Republicans, seem to go into hiding during midterm elections so as not to remind people what a big mistake they made. This one doesn't have that fear, and with good reason.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I can only control the things I got control over.

    Mooney will cruise. Manchin will get his ass handed to him. And all will be well in Almost Heaven.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. From your mouth to God's ear.

      Delete
  3. Heard a campaign ad for Heidi Heitkamp yesterday. It said she voted for responsible tax cuts not a tax cut that increases the deficit by (I can't remember her number) around three trillion. She's helped the energy industry blah blah blah. If that's the best she's got the Trumpers are going to kick her ass. Totally laughable ad that no one will buy except dyed in the wool liberals.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. My old stomping grounds! My whole family was born in No Dak, me in Grand Forks. Heidi will be a tougher out than Manchin, but North Dakotans don’t play well with the kind of garbage Maxine is spewing right now. She’ll lose by about 3.

      Delete
  4. Speaking of Maxine, has she been sent out to diss PDT's appointees so Schumer and Pelosi can say "that's not who we are" and sound like moderates?

    ReplyDelete
  5. All I can say is that, if the Demos keep acting the way they are and the Lefties keep acting the way they are, it's gonna be tough for the Demos to make much headway.

    YMMV

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, Ed. There are so many ads waiting to write themselves right now, it’s ridiculous. Immediately put them on the defensive. Ask: Do you or do you not support the tactics of the current Democrat leadership? Then pick em apart with examples of THEIR hatred towards Trump, or their silence about the outrages. We got this. We got this.

      Delete
  6. I've been wrong before but it seems to me that far left wins in primaries seldom translates to general election wins. About 25% to 30% of the electorate identifies as very liberal, and they tend to have an activist streak that gets them out to vote in primaries. I think there will be few districts where they can swing a general election.

    ReplyDelete
  7. POLL:

    Should trump threaten to GO AUTHORITARIAN to head off civil war approaching November?

    BONUS ESSAY:

    Why?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No.

      Because by November it will be clear that the Dems are about to get slaughtered at the polls.

      Delete
  8. I pray that the Waters rants and others do not lead to violence against anyone. That said, I hope the rants continue right up to the election (2018 and 2020).

    ReplyDelete
  9. If the Dems don't take the house and hold the line in the Senate, the Cold Civil War weren in mY turn hot. If you look at current events through the lens of the 1850s...you'd be as deeply worried as I am.

    So my advice? Stock up on ammo & magazines...I think we're going to need them.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Having lived through the '60s, I think the "Leftist Revolutionary Movement" model is what to expect. The problem for the Left is it is difficult to start a revolution if you can't start a lawnmower, or leave your Safe Space. And 50 years of being on the receiving end of the Left's all putrifying hate has created a counter culture that will not be the "Silent Majority" of the '60s.

      The Left want a war. Bloodlust is part and parcel of Marxist dogma. They will not like living with the rules they've created.

      Way2opinionated

      Delete
  10. The more I watch Trump and his actions and statements and "audience participation" rallies, the more I realize that, in addition to Sun Tzu, he's also using Alinsky's rules. Effectively.

    ReplyDelete