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Tuesday, May 22, 2018

Blue wave? Republicans lead one generic poll

On December 20, Democrats were on a high. They had just swiped a Senate seat in Alabama and they enjoyed a 13-point lead in the Real Clear Politics average of generic congressional ballot polls.

Two days later, President Trump signed the tax cuts into law -- and it has been downhill for Democrats ever since. Not one of them voted for tax relief.

On April 20, I wrote, "My first and final prediction is Republicans will hold the House and the Senate in the midterms, and likely add to their lead in the latter. They may even have a rare net gain in both houses for the party in power."

One month later, the Democratic lead is down to four points.

But wait. There's more.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll now shows a four-point lead for Republicans.

The question was, "Thinking about the elections in 2018, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live?"

The answer was: "Republican candidate 35.6%. Democratic candidate 31.7%. Don’t know / Refused 15.2%. Will not/do not plan to vote 11.2%. Candidate from another political party 6.3%."

In the 2016 race, Donald Trump turned elections upside down by making campaign ads meaningless. Instead, he earned media coverage and used outrageous live events to get his message across.

Hillary spent twice as much money.

He carried 30 states, she got 20.

Now Trump is a-changing the rules again by -- are you ready for this? -- keeping his campaign promises.

18 comments:

  1. Regarding this bold but untried strategy of "keeping his campaign promises", one hopes other Repubs will give the strategy a vigorous try out!
    JimNorCal

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    1. From your mouth to God's ear!

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  2. And this is before the $hit hits the fan.

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    1. I just hope there is some serious shit that will hit the fan.

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  3. The old wheeze about people voting their pocketbooks still applies.

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    1. These days too many Americans, especially Dimocrats, think like Venezuelans, so I'm not so sanguine. The angry, bitter Leftists in this country have split so far off from the main stream they are no longer recognizable as fellow Americans. They are intent upon destroying the liberties and traditions that sustain our nation. Just look at today's headlines: "if we win the House in the mid-term election, we will impeach Trump" and "Shoot to kill," says Harvard law professor Laurence Tribe as he pimps his new handbook on how the Left can end the Trump presidency.

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  4. Was Blankenship a Manchin/Dem plot from the get go?

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    1. Well, he clearly won the debate, but his performance post primary was abominable. Funny thing about us Mountaineers...we can go 5 different directions, but we always wind up on the same path when it counts.

      Morissey by 40. I say again.

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    2. A split Republican vote usually ushers in the Democrat. Good luck, I'm hoping for the best for WV and DS.

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  5. The latest poll from Reuters shows Republicans ahead by six points, a nine point swing in one week. Any Republican running for office this year had better grab hold of President Trump's coattails and hold on tight. It's going to be a Nantucket sleighride of an election. - Elric

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  6. If we can get Republicans to follow this presidents operating procedures we can fix most of the problems in this country, but if we get more RINOs it will make the job a whole lot tougher.

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  7. This morning I watched a Dem guest on a talking head news program saying that PDJT had not fullfilled all his campaign promises. I sat there thinking what a moron he was for reminding us all how many he has kept and how he could do better with more support in congress.

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    1. Better is not always the same thing as more. Would be content to hold balance with better men than pump up with K Streeters.


      Watch this retiring crop of Congs and see how they make out. I assume I am the last to know that when John Boehner joins a cannabis BoD and preaches conversion, that the cat of legalization is in the political bag. I trust the Corkers, Flakes et al won't go hungry.

      Rough rapids as far as I can see .. But PDJT may shoot the rapids yet. He has so far.

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  8. That Trump character has played a dastardly trick on the Democrats. He's making them run against peace and prosperity.

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  9. Smart Dems are probably desperate to lose in the mid-terms. If they win they will HAVE to follow up on all their impeachment nonsense, or lose their communist base to some mad communist like Bernie. If they impeach, though, it will destroy them just in time for the 2020 elections.

    They should figure out who in their party to throw off a cliff and get throwing.

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  10. Yes, Trump is pretty much doing what he said he'd do -- or at least trying some. Obamacare replacement was always a Congress duty, but the Reps in Congress had not, and do not yet, agree on what the replacement should be. On the other hand, any med change is going to hurt somebody, and the media will be publicizing the hurt a lot more than the help.

    It would be good to go back and summarize the list of promises Obama made, and kept or not. Separately for 2008 & 2012.

    In general, Obama promised things would get better, but lots of things got worse.

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