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Tuesday, May 22, 2018

Blankenship jumps Republican ship, and I thank him

After finishing third in the Republican primary for a West Virginia U.S. Senate seat, Don Blankenship is switching parties to join the Constitution Party in an effort to stop Attorney General Patrick Morrisey.

I thank Blankenship for taking his ball and going home. Now will Governor Jim Justice please join him in leaving the Republican Party?

How will Blankenship do in November?

Will his staff members stay with him, further risking their future within the party?

We know he has the money but money can't buy you love and it can't buy you an election either, as Jim Humphreys learned in his 2000 and 2002 congressional bids.

Professor Eric Ostermeier of the University of Minnesota weighed in.

He pointed out that no Third Party candidate has received more than 3% of the vote in a West Virginia U.S. Senate race.

In the 2014 race, in which Shelley Moore Capito clobbered Natalie Tennant, the three Third Party candidates combined for 3%. (John Buckley, Libertarian Party, 1.6 percent; Bob Henry Baber, Mountain Party 1.2 percent; and, Phil Hudok, Constitution Party, 0.6 percent). That was a total of 15,479 votes.

But Blankenship received 27,153 votes in the Republican primary, which was 10 times the total for Hudok.

The question then becomes, can Blankenship keep those 27,153 votes?

Are his Republican voters so enamored of him that they would risk another six-year term for Joe Manchin?

Republican primary turnout this year was nearly double the turnout in the last mid-term. That may reflect a last minute push by President Trump to keep Blankenship from winning. No more Roy Moores.

Now Blankenship has turned against President Trump.

I'll start the over/under for Blankenship's vote total at the 27,153 votes he received in the Republican primary.

That would be 6% of the vote, which would be fantastic and a detriment to General Morrisey in his battle against Joe Manchin, D-Schumer.

But, my advice to Republicans is to remember the old Roy Clark song, "Thank God and Greyhound."

5 comments:

  1. I’ll bet On the under. Blankenship has proven to be quite the jerk.

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  2. Proof that his run for office was more about him than the people voting, and that blaming his hubris for the deaths of men under his watch has more credibility than it did before.

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  3. Well, you can subtract two from that original total, Big D. The wife and I talked this morning and we’re both in for Patrick. We aren’t wrong often about politics but we sure screwed the pooch on this one. Now I foresee Blankenship pitching a bitch to get into the debate. That oughta be a show.

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  4. I appreciate what you mean by "No more Roy Moores", but I'd like to point out how quickly after the election everything disappeared. Almost as if it was not even there. That was 100% hit job and unfortunately people bought it. Its going to be the Democrat playbook for special elections from now on so we need to get used to it. Good news is there isn't enough money or bandwith to use that technique in a general election, at least not overall. They could target a couple at best.

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  5. I need to correct your opening paragraph. It should read as follows:

    After finishing third in the Republican primary for a West Virginia U.S. Senate seat, Don Blankenship is switching parties to join the Constitution Party IN AN EFFORT TO AID JOE MANCHIN IN HIS RE-ELECTION BID TO THE U.S. SENATE.

    FIFY.
    -TK

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