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Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Terrible news for Republicans

I am going to give it to you straight: November troubles me. The ability of Democrats to derail Roy Moore (this year's Todd Akin, who was that year's Christine O'Donnell) and the 20-point swing in Pennsylvania's special election last night are terrible.

I will give another reason to fear November. Sean Trende thinks it will be a bad year for Republicans.

Trende of Real Clear Politics caught the 2010 Republican tsunami early.

In 2016, he never blew off Donald Trump.

His columns included one on January 29, which was right after Iowa, which experts proved Trump's candidacy would end.

"If there is anything positive I can say about Trump it is this: He gets this cosmopolitan/traditionalist divide, and he is the only candidate who lands foursquare with the traditionalists. He isn’t a fundamentalist, but he gets the whole 'why can’t we just say Merry Christmas in supermarkets anymore?' He’s a billionaire, but he gets the anger at wealthy donors that many see as perverting the political system. There’s little doubt that his hotels have employed undocumented workers, but he gets the anger at what many see as a foolish unwillingness of this country to control its borders as the unwillingness of many in the Republican leadership to take strong, unambiguous stands on these issues (largely as a result of their own discomfort with these stands)" Trende wrote.

There are other columns by Trende as well. I won't bore readers showing all the research. But he did not like the man, and likely still doesn't, but Trende appreciated what Trump stood for and how this could play out.

So I paid attention when Trende wrote today, "Why It Doesn't Matter Who the Winner Is in PA-18."

First, Trende argued that because the split in the House is so partisan, there is no chance that the Democratic winner of the race will affect legislation. The lack of compromise renders Democrats as meaningless in the first two years of the Trump presidency as Republicans were in Obama's first two years.

Trende also said the district will be redistricted in November, and local politics matter.

So Tuesday's election does not change a thing, according to Trende.

That is bad news for Republicans.

"There are over 100 districts that are bluer than this one.  While not all of them will feature Republican retirements, Democrats who are perfectly tailored for the electorates, and problematic Republicans, a lot of them will.  The GOP’s House majority is in grave danger in the fall. That was the story before this election, and it remains the story today," Trende wrote.

Never bet against The Donald, however, Luther Strange, Roy Moore, and now, Rick Saccone, have learned that betting with him is not always a winning formula.

Republicans need to recruit better candidates and market that tax cut, which no Democrat supported.

They cannot blow off a single race this year.

And they need to improve their Get Out The Vote operations. The gap was in enthusiasm, not policy.

37 comments:

  1. Republicans need to recruit better candidates and market that tax cut...

    I don't see that happening because there are still too many RINOs and NeverTrumpers in the Swamp who are determined to get rid of Trump. They preferred a drunk Hillary to Trump, and some of them actually admitted it.

    However, never underestimate Trump and the Deplorables. We know what's at stake.

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    1. I am fearful that not enough know what is at stake. How COULD the PA race have been THAT close????? VERY WORRIED.

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    2. The usual Democrat methods come to mind.

      It also doesn't help the Paul Ryan's PAC backed Lamb, although one commenter I saw noted that Lamb made a better case for Trump's agenda than the R.

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  2. Lamb is hardly a typical Democrat. How many moderate former Marine colonels can they pull out of their ass?

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    1. Can they trust him not to vote like a Dem? I wouldn't trust him to keep his campaign promises.

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    2. Neither is Richard Ojeda a typical Democrat He is a retired US Army major (Airborne) and Democrat who will flip one of West Virginia's three Congressional red seats to blue this fall. Won't even be close.

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    3. How can people like Marine colonels and US Army majors be Democrats?

      That's what I just don't understand. They're smart, capable, patriotic and talented; so why are they members of the Democrat party? This.Does.Not.Compute!

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    4. Esky - THey are Dem because they don't have heel spurs

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    5. Esky, 2 words.

      Spenser Rapone. Clearly, some Lefties are willing to do a hitch so they can come out in civilian life silencing their opponent with lines like, "I'm a decorated Marine veteran and what gives to the right to question me?".

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  3. Does the GOP have a Get Out The Vote operation to improve upon? I thought the efforts were in purging registered (and very alive) citizens from voter roles, and gumming up urban polling places.

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    1. And yet only one campaign was caught on video plotting fraud.....
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDc8PVCvfKs

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  4. What we are seeing even in our local elections here in Texas is that everything is in flux. The GOP is breaking apart at the local level along the lines of the swamp-drainers and the status quo. In our primary, the RINOs ran a closet Democrat on the republican ticket for state representative. He lost, thank our Good Lord. In the same primary, a MAGA candidate beat a long-time incumbent for County Judge. This should have meant no opponent in November, but county Republicans - including one who actually attended Trump's inauguration - scurried around and found another stealth Democrat to run against our man in November.

    I think our people outnumber theirs, but as you know, in local politics it gets real icky real fast. We have to be sure we get a strong turnout in November.

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    1. PS... in the Texas State races, it does seem that President Trump's endorsement *matters*. George P Bush won handily against his opponents, despite the mess he has made of the Land Office, in great part because of endorsement from Trump Sr and Trump Jr. Geo P Bush's own unwaivering loyalty to President Trump - dating all the way back to when he first won the nomination in 2016 - also played a part. People trust candidates who are loyal to this President.

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  5. Sorry Don ,this where you and I part ways.You are now just another Mark Levin.Why not look at things through your own eyes ,rather than some hack at RCP.Dennis

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  6. The Dems are closing the gap. That's just a fact and the longer we keep our head in the sand, the less likely we'll be effective in November. Ben Shapiro has the numbers (around the mid-point of this video) which, in recent special elections, show the Dems closing the gap by an average of 16 points! And that's in races where we should have won handily. They're enthusiastic, motivated. We are not. Or not enough.

    And that's all against the backdrop of how history shows that mid-terms often go in favor of the "other" party. So we're bucking that, as well.

    So much at stake. As this article points out: We need strong candidates and a powerful get-out-the-vote machine.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_tSbiS2yUBA

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  7. He is an opportunist and a never Trumper and remember the broad who he backed up as to her being molested by a Candidate Trump aid in Florida

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  8. Candidates matter. Lamb campaigned better and was just a better candidate. He ran far from the democrat message, so let's wait and see how he legislates, he could be more dependable than some Republicans we have in office, or he could completely sell-out to Pelosi (my bet). That's his constituents problem though. In the meantime, maybe the Republicans can try to find someone who isn't so low energy...and spend some time finding candidates who aren't the clones of Moore, Akin, Murdoch, etc.

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  9. The Dimocrats are gonna do what they did in 2006: find candidates who run as Republicans, which is what Lamb did. Remember in 2006 Dimocrats ran as fiscal conservatives. That would be funny if it weren't so serious. They're gonna try the same thing this year and run "conservative" Dimocrats (an oxymoron). It worked in Pennsylvania. Of course, once these "conservative" Dimocrats take office, they'll become run of the mill liberal Dimocrats. In order to retain Congress, Republicans need to run good candidates and nationalize the races. Of course, we're talking about the Stupid Party so that prolly won't happen. - GOC

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    1. Good one DSW - Rs called Lamb an anti-gun, pro-abortion, tax-and-spend liberal up until election results came in and now all of the sudden Lamb won because of his conservative platform. This is why Rs are losing, you cant make up your mind about anything.

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    2. Rs called Lamb...

      Straw man much?

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  10. Tell me one Democrat in the US House or Senate that doesn't vote exactly how Schumer or Pelosi want them to! This guy will be no different.
    There are many that think Manchin in WV is as conservative as many Republicans, but when the vote is needed, he defers to Schumer! That is the message the Republicans must make! Lamb can pretend he's Pro Life and Pro Gun, but when his vote is needed, he'll be Nancy's little sheep 🐑 🐑

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  11. I don’t understand that, even with less than optimal candidates, voters vote democrat knowing that President Trump’s agenda will not get implemented.

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    1. Schlongy, Mr. T's agenda is already 65% complete. And Lamb is up again in November, right? All of y'all need to calm the fuck down and just vote. Don't go all wobbly. Who said that?

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    2. Margaret Thatcher to President Bush.

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    3. Hahaha Kitty! (Alex Trebek voice) You are right.

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  12. There are trillions of globalist dollars at stake in defeating Trump's agenda on trade, so a lot of that money will go to Dems and Rinos. This is war, but only The Don is actually acting like it. Everyone else needs to wake up and act like it is a war too. This is a war for freedom because once those Dems get in, and get Michelle Obama running for Pres, then it will be all over for the US.

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  13. Still lots of sheep voters taken in by enemedia stories. Still lots of low info voters casting ballots at random.
    It's sort of a miracle there are as many of us as there are. One energized, I don't think any of us contemplates going back. I know I don't.
    JimNorCal

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  14. And this just out,you got the Republicans backing the Lamb in PA,
    UniParty At Work – Paul Ryan SuperPac Campaigned to Elect Democrat Conor Lamb…

    https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2018/03/15/uniparty-at-work-paul-ryan-superpac-campaigned-to-elect-democrat-conor-lamb/#more-146946

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    1. Sadly, I think Sundance is right. The GOP "leadership" in Congress is playing a double game.

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    2. Never-Trumpers don't have any other way to play it. Can't have the plebes getting any real representation. -- BJ54

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    3. I just saw that CTH post in which sundance linked the hard copy evidence

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  15. two ways to win, no way to lose. next step of the operation, trump invites lamb to the wh to congratulate him and for a closed door meeting. he goes (win), he refuses (win). he has to run again in November.

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  16. The GOP leadership thinks they can campaign against Pelosi and, by the way, not indicate any support for Trump's agenda (as if any Republican voter wants Ryan's or McConnel's agenda) and win. Well, they didn't win. Being driven by the partisan media to ignore a Republican President whose agenda is popular, even if the constant hate of the media, Hollywood, and DC politicians make it seem that the whole country is in open revolt again the president is a losing strategy.

    Here's an American Thinker column that explains this is in more detail (and asks why would you go into a Congressional district Trump just won by 20 points and not support Trump when he's in your own party?) ... https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2018/03/if_saccone_loses_its_because_he_didnt_make_the_election_a_referendum_on_trump.html

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  17. Phil Bredesen is running ads right now in Tennessee for the US Senate election- and he makes it sound like he is a Republican, too. I don't think voters are fooled by such things, though- it is just that Republicans aren't showing up to vote right now, and that is really on the present House and Senate's inability to pass much of anything that they promised to pass if given a Republican president to sign bills.

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  18. The Grande Dame of Conservatism, Phyllis Shlafly, was espousing Trumpism in 2008 and long before.

    When Trump ran for the nomination, she supported him and was denounced as senile by the GOP, including her children.

    Such is the GOP that Trump fights against.

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  19. 8 months to November and a lot can happen, so I wouldn't panic just yet.

    And I'll bet Hillary's little tirade in Inja will get a lot of play, but, yeah, the Whigs have shown their true colors the last few cycles so we know they'll always prefer a closet Demo to a real Conservative.

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  20. Well, here's the one we've been waiting for.

    Turns out the machines were "miscalibrated" and Saccone votes were flipped to Lamb.

    Eskyman asked, "How can people like Marine colonels and US Army majors be Democrats?".

    Maybe because Spenser Rapone wasn't a one-off.

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