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Thursday, March 08, 2018

By "lengthy recession" he meant a "rip-roaring job market"

Sarah Sanders, Trump's press secretary, tweeted, "Under President Trump jobless claims lowest in a half century and wages are rising. A new report by Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, projects the jobless rate will hit an all time low next year."

Zandi predicted a 3.5% unemployment rate for next year. That troubles me because Zandi is a partisan who gets the economy wrong all the time.

"The economy will be significantly weaker if Mr. Trump's economic proposals are adopted. Under the scenario in which all his stated policies become law in the manner proposed, the economy suffers a lengthy recession and is smaller at the end of his four-year term than when he took office," Zandi said in June 2016.

"By the end of his presidency, there are close to 3.5 million fewer jobs and the unemployment rate rises to as high as 7 percent, compared with below 5 percent today.

"During Mr. Trump's presidency, the average American household's after-inflation income will stagnate, and stock prices and real house values will decline."

Under President Trump, the Misery Index is at its lowest since Ike was president. He has brought the 1950s back in terms of inflation and unemployment.

At this point in his presidency (January 2010), Obama's unemployment rate was 9.7%. Trump's was 4.1%. We have added 2 million or so jobs since Trump's election.

Which is the opposite the opposite of what Zandi said would happen.

"For the typical American family, Mr. Trump's policies will mean that their standard of living will effectively go nowhere, at least during his term in office. It will be a difficult four years for the typical American family," Zandi said.

So you can see why I am troubled to read that Zandi is predicting we will Make America Great Again.

"In a call with reporters today, Zandi described a 'rip-roaring job market' that includes accelerating increases in wages. His jobless projection is just outside the lower range of the Federal Reserve's full-year 2019 forecast of 3.6%-4.0%," Axios reported.

He also said tariffs will result in 60,000 jobs lost.

He did not say where.

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The media chose to go to war with Donald John Trump in 2017 rather than accept him as president.

The media chose poorly.

Fake News Follies of 2017 shows how and why.

What readers are saying:

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Richard: "Funny, well written and well organized, Fake News Follies is an entertaining and thoughtful look at the news coverage provided by the press to the American people. Clearly they are not playing it straight. Sure, the press makes mistakes. It's inevitable. But when the totality of news stories not hewing to the known facts is collected and presented as it is in this volume there is but one explanation. Fake News. Don Surber brings to the subject insight that only a veteran newsman could provide. I wish this book would be read by everyone but especially people opposed to Trump because I think it would be sufficient to challenge even a closed off worldview."

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Fake News Follies of 2017 is available on Kindle and in paperback.

Autographed copies are available. Email me at DonSurber@GMail.com for details. I am including a "director's cut." I will give you the original Chapter 1 that I cut because while the chapter was amusing, it really had nothing to do with the Fake News Follies of 2017.

13 comments:

  1. Sounds like Zandi studied under Paul Krugman. I guess with his latest prediction. Being the opposite of his original one, he can’t be wrong.

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  2. What is BC? British Columbia?

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  3. Many big investment firms no longer employ economists. They have become like weather forecasters who revise predictions as the storm passes through.
    Krugman's Nobel as well as Obama's ruined the reputation of that Committee for at least two generations so powerful has the the necessity to signal virtue become on the left.

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  4. 3.5 percent is not doable unless you drag people out of their houses and force them to work in slave labor camps. Like Ivan Denisovich. Who is this farceur?

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    1. You don't have to 'drag people out of their homes and force them to work...." All you need to do is provide jobs that pay better than welfare. It seems doable to me. But you are partially right. Many people can live on what welfare pays and enjoy their leisure. These folks are making serfs of the rest of the country to support them.

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    2. Local news tonight said my midwest cities' unemployment rate is 2.5%. Businesses are hiring but there just aren't enough people to fill the jobs.

      Katydid

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  5. The only way obama's unemployment rates fell is people dropped out of the work force. The only way obama controlled inflation was to delete things we use everyday from the calculation. That's why beef or gasoline could double in price without affecting inflation.
    The swamp will massage President Trump's numbers to make sure they don't reflect poorly on obama.

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    Replies
    1. There was never any inflation under Obama. Prices all stayed the same ... items like cereal just got smaller. /s

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  6. "He also said tariffs will result in 60,000 jobs lost.

    He did not say where."

    Velly funny Doctah Surbah! ;-)

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  7. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  8. The Left will never successfully counter Trump until they learn the one golden rule concerning dealings with him: “Shut up your bellyaching and PAY ATTENTION.”

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