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Monday, July 24, 2017

2020 map looking good for Trump

The latest Gallup Poll shows President Trump's approval rate is 37%, while his disapproval rate is 58%.

That is not as bad as it seems for two reasons.



The first is that the information comes from Gallup, which realized after the 2012 election polling a presidential race today is pretty useless.

And please, abstain from the lectures on how the polls last fall all fell within the margin of error. When you add 10 polls of 1,200 people each, you have no margin of error to hide behind. You have polled 12,000 people, not 1,200.

Margin of error is an excuse. The media reported the average of the polls, not the range according to the margin of error (for example, a poll showing Trump up 2% to Clinton Clinton up 12% was reported as Clinton up 5%).

Gallup has credibility the pollsters who got it wrong do not deserve. Those of us who said the pols were wrong were mocked last fall. Payback is a female dog.

As for his approval rate, Trump has never been loved, but he was loved just enough in 30 states to win.

Now he may be loved just enough -- 40% or better -- in 33 states.

Those are the 30 states he took plus Maine, Nevada, and New Hampshire.

That would give him a 319-219 victory in the Electoral College.

He is most liked in West Virginia with a 60% approval rate.

Of course. We Mountaineers ain't dumb.



Caution: Readers occasionally may laugh out loud at the media as they read this account of Trump's election.

It is available on Kindle, and in paperback.



Caution: Readers occasionally may laugh out loud at the media as they read this account of Trump's nomination.

It is available on Kindle, and in paperback.

Autographed copies of both books are available by writing me at DonSurber@GMail.com

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9 comments:

  1. Why is it that you Mountaineers - the poorest state in the country - go for billionaires to be your government leaders and then proceed to see nothing positive come of it?

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    1. Obummer and Her Thighness wanted to shut down coal. What planet have you been living on?

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    2. Probably lives in Socialist Unicornland.

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    3. I can answer that: my aunt was a Democratic ward boss in Wheeling for years. I could lick envelopes before I could read. Polls were constantly in and out of her house; politics was a standard dinner time topic.

      FDR (and particularly his wife, Eleanor) were the only ones in DC who gave a damn about Appalachia during the Depression. This belief was bolstered by JFK, RFK, and LBJ, so WV voted for the party of the working man. Then in the 1970s, the Dems turned a hard left with the environmentalist wing launching its war on coal. Obama was the last straw.

      Only the certifiably insane would vote for a party hell-bent on pursuing a policy that would deprive them of the ability to feed their children. And so, WV turned to the party that did not require mass suicide and voted for the one man who promised to stand by them. I don't see why that's so hard to understand.

      BTW, by the time my aunt died in 2011, she and her husband (along with their five kids) were registered Republicans.

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    4. Pols. I hate auto-correct. Can we please get an edit feature, Don?

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  2. Sigh. The carping never ends. Compared to whom? Obama? Clinton? Trump has been in office six months. He has been under constant attack from day 1. He has a lot more than just the past eight years of terrible economic policy to overcome. I voted for him and I live in Nebraska, not exactly a state that has benefited much from national policy except for ag subsidies (which ought to be phased out, BTW). I say give the man a chance. Your carping doesn't offer anything useful. Errr, your carping does tell me something about you, though. Can you guess what? ")

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    1. Actually, it's since day -74 (November 9th) they've been squawking like turkeys.

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  3. There was one word jumped out from the interviews of Anthony Scaramucci. He said "love" as in "we who love our President". I hear and read people saying this. Before he was elected, people said they loved him for saying what they were not allowed to, for being un pc. Now I see them saying they love him for his courage. Never underestimate the power of love. Obama got love for being black. But he was not vilified like Trump. In what I think was his best speech ever, he said he would take "the slings and arrows" for the forgotten. That is what is happening. How many of the 62 million have seen the disgusting attacks on him, seen him under fire, firing back, and their reluctant support has turned to love? I believe love for Trump is going to be a powerful force in the next election. Remember Hillary's slogan "Love Trumps Hate"? I think that is going to come true, very ironic. My chief worry is that the Deep State will decide to remove him physically if they can't remove him any other way. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tab5vvo0TJw

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    1. I agree. Also, love requires commitment, a willingness to stick it out through the hard times, to stand together against those who seek to bring you down in exchange for the promise of something better.

      Also, no matter what the Uniparty claims, Trump supporters aren't stupid. We realize that this is really a war against us with the goal of crushing us so soundly that we never dare rise against our masters again. As was said during the Revolution, "we must all hang together or we will hang separately."

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