Monday, May 08, 2017

Trump proves "experts" wrong on mining

Oh how the media lectured Trump supporters on coal mining, saying they were fools for believe Donald John Trump's pledge to resuscitate the industry that provides reliable electricity cheap.

Poca, West Virginia

From Cyrus Sanati of Fortune magazine on July 20, 2016:
Donald Trump’s promise to bring coal mining jobs back to West Virginia is pure fantasy. Even if environmental protections are eased under a Trump presidency, demand for coal, especially West Virginian coal, will continue to decline due purely to market forces. If Trump wants to help West Virginia, he should support efforts to diversify its economy into something more sustainable, like tourism or health care.
West Virginia's tourism industry consists of five casinos whose revenues decline due to the recent legalization of casinos in adjoining states.

From an Associated Press "fact check" on May 5, 2016:
Donald Trump says he would bring back lost coal-mining jobs, and he is positioning for the November election in big coal states by portraying Hillary Clinton as a job killer.
Trump, however, has yet to explain exactly how he will revitalize Appalachia's coal industry. To pull it off, he will have to overcome market forces and a push for cleaner fuels that have pummeled coal.
Coal's slump is largely the result of cheap natural gas, which now rivals coal as a fuel for generating electricity. Older coal-fired plants are being idled to meet clean-air standards.
Another hurdle for reviving coal mining in Appalachia: less coal. Reserves of coal still in the ground are smaller than in western states like Wyoming, the leading coal producer.
There is no question that there are fewer mining jobs today. According to the Labor Department, there were 56,700 jobs in coal mining in March, down from 68,000 just a year earlier. In March 2009, shortly after President Barack Obama entered office, there were 84,600 coal-mining jobs.
A loss of 27,900 jobs -- one-third of all coal miner jobs -- in eight years but hey, Obama had no War on Coal, right?

From Scientific American on May 10, 2016:
Donald Trump’s promise to open shuttered coal mines in Appalachia might be as hard to fulfill as getting Mexico to pay for a new wall, analysts suggested.
The vow by the presumptive Republican presidential nominee would likely mean turning back regulations on greenhouse gases and perhaps toxic air pollutants, experts said. Even then, it’s unlikely that the cost of extracting coal from eastern mines would be cheaper than using natural gas in power plants, they said, making a widespread mining revival improbable.
I am not exactly sure why political promises are science, but I do know when I see bogus science.

From Tim Worstall of Forbes on May 5, 2016:
Electronics assembly is something that will either be done by cheap foreign labor or robots within the U.S. There just won't be (barring an economic meltdown of truly Venezuelan proportions) those sorts of jobs in those sorts of numbers in the U.S. ever again.
And the same is largely true of those coal mining jobs in Appalachia. Donald Trump tells us that he will bring them back but it's just not going to happen.
"Never My Love" by the Association is the best slow dance song ever, but as an economic forecast, it stinks.

From Justin Worland of Time magazine on August 12, 2016:
Donald Trump has promised repeatedly throughout his campaign to save the U.S. coal industry after years of bankruptcies and dwindling job prospects for coal miners. On Tuesday, he stood before a crowd in Virginia with "Trump Digs Coal" signs and declared that he was the "last shot for the miners."
But experts say Trump's plan, to the extent that he has has one, is removed from the tough economic reality of coal, which has been forced to compete with the declining price of alternatives like natural gas and renewable energy sources, even as federal regulations push the U.S. away from fossil fuels. And many believe that Trump's possibly futile focus on saving the coal industry detracts attention from the real proposals needed to help coal workers transition into new jobs in a new industry. "We really want the solar industry to come to the table now and find ways to get more jobs going in some of these communities that need jobs," says Van Jones, an environmental activist who served as President Obama's first-term green jobs czar. "If we’re concerned about coal country, and I am, we have to do a lot more than just yell."
Van Jones. Coal expert.

From CNN:
If Trump does manage to reverse Obama's policies, it could help ease the pain in coal country. But a Trump victory in November won't be a cure-all for an industry that is reeling from a long list of challenges that extend way beyond regulation.
CNN, the most busted name in television. Van Jones works for them.

And so on and so forth. Readers get the picture.

So what is the reality since Trump was elected?

From the Department of Labor on Friday:
Employment in mining rose by 9,000 in April, with most of the increase in support activities for mining (+7,000). Since a recent low in October 2016, mining has added 44,000 jobs, with three-fourths of the gain in support activities for mining.
Those are 44,000 jobs the experts in the media said were never coming back.

Under Obama, coal jobs fell to 608,500 in October (down 22,500 in six months). Since we elected Trump, coal jobs rose to 652,500!

Never say never.

Especially when it comes to Donald John Trump.

On November 8, 2016, the American people said, "Trump the Establishment!"

Now read the book that explains how and why the press missed this historic the election.

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And then read the original, "Trump the Press," which chronicled and mocked how the media missed Trump's nomination.

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  1. It strikes me that the Dems must be raaaaacist, coal being BLACK.

  2. If all the journalists who predicted the demise of coal were laid end to end ... well, they'd be a lot more comfortable.

  3. The reality for new power plants is NG because the cost to meet the needed environmental regulations for coal are high; the days of soot covering laundry hanging outside should never return. I was to manage an environmental up grade of two 700 megawatt coal fired plants in Nevada at a cost of $1.2 billion during W's Administration, which was canceled and the plants were shutdown due to politics and cost.
    Another problem is are there pipelines available for the NG operation; a NIMBY problem if they need to be built. Usually coal fired plants are initially fired by NG, but whether or not the volume of gas is available to run the plant is another question.

  4. This is an area where reporting backed by real, scientific expertise would be nice. There seems to be no one to trust. I sure do not know who to trust.

  5. In 2008, after Sarah Palin said the solution to high oil prices was "Drill, baby, drill!" Obama pissed all over that by saying 'No, it would take 5 years or more' in an attempt to deflect the truth and the need for regulatory relief. Well, here we are in 2017 - God Bless frackers and the USA!

  6. And the non-economic losers fail to understand the increases in support jobs. Not to mention the restaurants, builders, etc that need additional employees to support the growth.

  7. Coal will be around for a long time. I wonder how many of these watermelons are investing their cash in "green" technology. My guess would be none. They want the government to subsidize those boondoggles. That speaks volumes. - Elric

    1. It's called green energy because it take a lot of green to produce that energy.