Tuesday, April 18, 2017

Good news for Republicans in Georgia

The race in Georgia to replace Dr. Tom Price -- who left Congress to join President Trump's Cabinet - has a few Republicans worried. Democrats from outside the state want to buy the seat and have invested $8.5 million so far in Jon Ossoff s campaign among more than a dozen people. He has a big lead in the polls.

Here is why I am not worried.



From Nate Silver:
As of Sunday evening, betting markets gave Ossoff about a 40 percent chance of eventually being the next member of Congress from Georgia 6, whether by winning a majority of the vote on Tuesday or prevailing in the June runoff. While that isn’t a ridiculous assessment, it looks too pessimistic on Ossoff. If the polls are right, the outcome of a runoff is more like a true 50-50 proposition — plus, there’s an outside chance that Ossoff could win outright on Tuesday. We’ll have a better sense for the odds after Tuesday, although perhaps not that much better given the uncertainties I described above.
But I generally think the conventional wisdom has been too slow to catch up with the fact that midterm and off-year elections are often problematic for the president’s party, and especially when the president is as unpopular as Trump. What might seem like an extraordinary feat — Democrats flipping Gingrich’s old seat — is going to be more commonplace in an environment like this one.
So N8 Ag gives Ossoff an even chance of winning because President Trump is unpopular.

Silver is the guy who gave Trump a 2 percent chance of winning the nomination because he was unpopular.

Silver is the guy who gave Trump a 28 percent chance of winning the election because he was unpopular.

Presidential popularity no longer matters. We are a nation divided by the haves in 20 states, and the have-nots in 30 states.

In 2010, President Obama's popularity failed to stop a stomping by the Republican Party in the House races.

In 2014, President Obama's popularity failed to stop a win by the Republican Party in the Senate races.

You must deliver.

Democrats have not delivered anything but sky-high health premiums and the most pathetic economy since FDR was president.

But we shall see what happens when it happens.




The original, "Trump the Press" chronicled and mocked how the media missed Trump's nomination.

It is available on Kindle, and in paperback.
Then came "Trump the Establishment," covering the election, which again the media missed.

It is available on Kindle, and in paperback.

Autographed copies of both books are available by writing me at DonSurber@GMail.com

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8 comments:

  1. I read that a couple of electronic voting machines for the special election in Georgia have been stolen. Why would anyone steal a voting machine unless to try to reprogram or otherwise compromise it? - Elric

    ReplyDelete
  2. I've read that Ossoff isn't even living in that district.

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    Replies
    1. True and even CCN questioned why he has lived with his girlfriend for 12 years and not married.

      Delete
    2. True and even CCN questioned why he has lived with his girlfriend for 12 years and not married.

      Delete
  3. The predictions from local handicappers in NY are Os losing in round 2. Silver has a hard time giving up what he said himself was his own Achilles heel in 16, self delusion. I hope he never gives up his craving.

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  4. Silver has never recovered from his rejection by the photographic industry.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Awesome article, Great, & Informative..Wonderful article you wrote..
    بلغارستان و روسیه سالانه میزبان هزاران هزار گردشگر است که به این کشورها سفر می کنند
    تور ارمنستان
    تور دبی
    تور تایلند
    درباره تایلند
    درباره ارمنستان
    درباره دبی
    تور بلغارستان تابستان 96
    تور روسیه تابستان 96

    ReplyDelete
  6. Silver is well on his way to becoming a one-hit wonder, like Ma Belle Amie by The Tee Set.

    ReplyDelete