Who told you months earlier we would elect President Trump?
That Little Old Blog Maker -- me.
But one other occupation (they are a trade, not a profession) also beclowned itself in this election.
A poll of more than 70 macroeconomists found 75% believed Clinton -- a first lady turned senator turned Cabinet secretary -- knew more about economics than Trum, a Wharton-trained CEO who in 45 years turned his family business into a $10 billion international empire that employed 22,000 people in a wide range of enterprises.
Last March, Politico reported: "The Economist rates Trump presidency among its top 10 global risks."
Last June, the Wall Street Journal reported: "U.S. Economy Would Be ‘Diminished’ Under Trump’s Economic Plan, New Analysis Says."
And that very special combination of journalist and economist -- Nobel laureate Paul Krugman -- on Election Night said:
It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?
Frankly, I find it hard to care much, even though this is my specialty. The disaster for America and the world has so many aspects that the economic ramifications are way down my list of things to fear.
Still, I guess people want an answer: If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.
Under any circumstances, putting an irresponsible, ignorant man who takes his advice from all the wrong people in charge of the nation with the world’s most important economy would be very bad news. What makes it especially bad right now, however, is the fundamentally fragile state much of the world is still in, eight years after the great financial crisis.
It’s true that we’ve been adding jobs at a pretty good pace and are quite close to full employment. But we’ve been doing O.K. only thanks to extremely low interest rates. There’s nothing wrong with that per se. But what if something bad happens and the economy needs a boost? The Fed and its counterparts abroad basically have very little room for further rate cuts, and therefore very little ability to respond to adverse events.
Now comes the mother of all adverse effects — and what it brings with it is a regime that will be ignorant of economic policy and hostile to any effort to make it work. Effective fiscal support for the Fed? Not a chance. In fact, you can bet that the Fed will lose its independence, and be bullied by cranks.
So we are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight. I suppose we could get lucky somehow. But on economics, as on everything else, a terrible thing has just happened.Since we elected President Trump, the stock market is up double digits, consumer confidence is higher than it ever was under the Marxist Obama regime, and factories are hiring again.
I have already authored the two aforementioned books on why the media got it wrong. I went beyond their living in a bubble, hiring the least talented, and serving their corporate interests.
But yes, it was mainly that bubble in which they lived, where they thought everything was going swimmingly in the United States under their hero, Obama. The only people who complained were the racists because they had to be racist because he was black and everything was going swimmingly for the United States.
Just ask the economists.
Who turned out to be the next-door neighbors to the journalists.
Which meant they too didn't know what they were talking about because they lived in Clueless Heights.
From Graham Summers, Chief Market Strategist, Phoenix Capital Research:
We have multiple generations of journalists who have ZERO experience engaging with those who run an actual business.
This is why NO ONE in the media gets Trump or the impact of his policies.
None of them have ever had to make payroll or create something from nothing. They’ve spent the last eight years literally kowtowing to a man who openly told the self-employed, “you didn’t build that.”
The same can be said for economists.
Time and again, you will see academics like Paul Krugman write op-eds suggesting that Trump is going to collapse the economy.
Krugman has never once had to actually run a business. His entire career has been one of writing the equivalent of glorified book reports for other people who write glorified book reports to read.
If you ran a McDonald's or plumbing business implementing anything Krugman claims, you’d be broke within six months. The man lives in a world of excel spreadsheets and faculty meetings, not the world of revenues and payroll.Verdict: TRUE.
Krugman was an economic adviser to Enron.
If you voted for Trump expecting the economy to improve, you win.
If you did not, you still win -- and best of all, you never have to admit you were wrong. Nobody else is.
But you were wrong enough to be an economist.
"Trump the Establishment" is now on Kindle.
"Trump the Establishment" is also available in paperback.
This is the sequel to "Trump the Press," which covered the nomination. The original -- "Trump the Press" -- is available on Kindle, or in paperback on Amazon.
Autographed copies are available by writing me at DonSurber@GMail.com
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