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Tuesday, February 07, 2017

Fake Business News

From Forbes:
Here's How Trump Muslim Ban Will Slam U.S. Economy
Before you panic, I suggest you read an earlier story.

From Forbes on November 7:
How A Trump Win Could Crater Your 401(k)
As a rule, presidents generally can’t significantly move huge economies like the U.S. While politics are always a consideration, the Federal Reserve and Congress, which controls spending, generally work independently of who’s in the White House.
It’s a different story when it comes to Donald Trump. Economic Conservatives and Liberals alike say his election could trigger a recession, tank stocks and hurt your retirement savings.
I just looked at my 401(k), which is 100% invested in John Bogle's S&P 500 stock index fund. We shall see how this works out in the long run, but so far, so good.

(Yes, they say in retirement I should go from stocks to more bonds, but I say dance with the one that brung you.)

That November 7 story -- the day before the election -- ended:
Although I can’t make a strong argument that Clinton’s policies would promote economic growth — which general follows non-political cycles — her policies would be nominally friendlier than Trump’s to budget concerns, foreign trade, job creation and reducing economic inequality.
And for that reason — and many others — I think your retirement kitty is in much safer hands if Clinton is elected. To think that radical, xenophobic-oriented, tax-regressive change would promote economic progress is the ultimate bamboozlement.
Thank you for that advice, Forbes.

But now that reaction this week to that phantom "Muslim ban."

From Forbes:
The travel curbs on people coming in from selected Muslim countries is going to hurt the U.S. economy. President Trump and his advisers are bamboozling Americans into thinking that it’s all about national security.
The ill-conceived, cruel restriction of just a handful of Muslim-dominated countries is a sideshow to some harmful moves that Trump has promised. A potential trade war will cripple the U.S. economy in a number of ways. It starts with restricting people from emigrating to the U.S.
Financial markets on Monday initially reacted negatively to the Trump ban. The value of the dollar relative to other world currencies also declined.
The piece ends:
As Trump follows through on campaign promises to scrap major trade deals such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which could’ve secured a competitive advantage for U.S. companies against China, it’s not clear what will actually stay in place. The Administration has already walked back parts of its Muslim-country ban and is being sued in several federal courts.
In any case, watch for the market’s reaction to ongoing changes in trade policy. While corporations and wealthy investors are relishing the idea of lower tax rates — part of Trump’s platform — if they are accompanied by trade and talent roadblocks, that optimism could evaporate quickly.
Now this is an opinion piece by a third-party, not necessarily the views of the magazine's founder, Steve Forbes.

But the magazine does have the responsibility to offer views that have some basis in fact.

Both columns are by John Wasik. We shall see if how his predictions turn out. So far, he is in Nate Silver territory.

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"Trump the Establishment" is an account on how the Establishment used the media to stop the Trump Train in the general election by constantly badgering him on personal issues, often petty. But Trump prevailed based on his abilities as a CEO, and his stances on the real issues of the economy and national security, which I also delve into.

The book is available in paperback at Create Space, or if you prefer, Amazon.

Kindle will be available March 1.

This is the sequel to "Trump the Press," which covered the nomination. It is available on Kindle, or in paperback on Create Space or Amazon.

Autographed copies are available by writing me at DonSurber@GMail.com

12 comments:

  1. I quit reading Forbes several years back because it was no better than playing pin the tail on the donkey with the NYSE tacked to the wall.

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  2. I've made close to a 100 K since 11/9. Haters gotta hate. Winners make money, unapologetically. I got aging parents to take care of.

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    1. Not sure what that means, doesn't make a lot of sense.

      Btw, 100k since 11/9 is not a lot. Braggart.

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  3. Forbes is from the Gaelic word for "field".

    We all know what you find ... what you're in danger of stepping in ... in a field, don't we?

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  4. Forbes went full Clinton. Don't NEVER do THAT!

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  5. Until Trump was sworn in I never realized how much our nation depends on immigrants from a handful of predominately Muslim countries.

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    1. Yes, what would the high tech companies do without all those smart engineers they need to hire from Somalia and Yemen? None of whom, I'd bet (tongue firmly planted in cheek), went to famous universities in the US that charge $60K a year to attend. In which case, it seems President Trump may need to ask the $64 question whether taxpayers are getting their money's worth from the many direct and indirect ways the government supports those schools. If the schools aren't supplying the country with the talent that H1B visa beggars like MS claim they need, perhaps Federal funding of higher education should be cut off and used in alternative ways that more directly benefit the US economy and US taxpayers.

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    2. It has more to do with the population explosion that accompanies an influx of certain groups.

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  6. From Krugman to Forbes and most points in between, the predictions rival the pre-election media and establishment. You will never fully retire Don. Book three is virtually writing itself!!

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  7. What really "slams the US economy" is high crime rates. Just devastating for any region that is afflicted.

    #1 cause for a massive explosion in crime rates, across all categories? Muslim immigration.

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  8. No argument is too lame or insipid when it comes to letting Muslims overrun America. If their population is exploding in the hell holes of the Middle East how do you think they will fare in our fertile society? With multiple wives and large numbers of children per wife (and probably drawing welfare checks, food stamps, and free housing) their numbers will increase exponentially. I thought it was revealing that in about a week 60,000 of them from just the seven countries included in the travel ban tried to get into the U.S. and were denied. Think about that - 60,000 in a week! Now that the travel ban has been suspended the numbers are going up rapidly for fear that it will be reinstated. - Elric

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  9. 60,000 with visas from the Obama Admin when they said they were worried about being able to vet them properly

    As to Don's statement, "Yes, they say in retirement I should go from stocks to more bonds, but I say dance with the one that brung you."
    Yea, I was following that being heavy in 2008 in Lehman Brothers bonds. Now Lehman is bankrupt, the assets are owned by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (funny that decision) to save Lehman jobs, but overall my retirement's life savings were cut in half. Who knew that the subprime mortgage derivatives were being sold by the government to financial companies and Clinton pushed for 30% of al loans to be subprime. Crap, at 69 I went back to work in the northern Alberta Canadian oil fields and to save money which was stashed in a Canadian bank since I worked for a Canadian company. I got laid off with the price of oil crashing and my Canadian dollar savings lost 25% of its value. And to boot, my stocks were largely in the energy field and associated companies. But a retired couple I know of had everything in "safe" Lehman Brothers bonds.
    I'm sure if I was to buy gold it would collapse in value. So I know how Trump feels about making decisions that are supposedly good, or as in his case done before, and then see that everything goes south.

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