“It’s been a rough year for the media experts. It must be humbling to be so wrong about so much for so long,” Robertson said.
“But I have a theory about how they missed the Trump train. They don’t hang out with regular folks like us who like to hunt and fish and pray and actually work for a living. Heck, I don’t even know that they know how to talk to people from middle America.”
Rather than deal with what was saidby Robertson -- CEO of an actual company in addition to having a reality show -- Nate Silver of 538 transformed Robertson's middle America into "real Americans" -- a liberal code for dumb bunnies.
After cherry picking through his data like a "climate scientist" trying to prove the sky is falling and the seas are rising, Nate Silver wrote on July 21:
Overall, “real Americans” made up only 20 percent of the electorate in 2012. And “real American” men were just 9 percent of it.
I still take what Willie Robertson said to heart. Political journalists, in any number of ways, aren’t especially representative of the electorate that they cover. That can introduce any number of biases. At events like the conventions, it can give journalists a tin ear for what’s resonating with the audience and what isn’t. It can also cause journalists to overcompensate. Palin’s performance in the vice-presidential debate against Joe Biden was widely praised by pundits, but polls showed that a clear majority of voters thought Biden did the better job. (Speaking of which, that’s one big advantage of polls: They can reflect the opinions of a demographically representative sample of voters.)
But this is a big, diverse country, and Robertson’s “regular folks” aren’t especially representative of it either. And if Republicans can’t increase their appeal beyond “real Americans,” they’ll lose their third presidential election in a row.Let's see, I am not a University of Chicago-trained economist like Nate Silver, but I can do arithmetic and 20 percent of 320 million Americans is 64 million -- or more than the populations of California and New York combined.
In fact, it just happens to be a little more than the combined populations of Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and the second congressional district of Maine.
And when you add the Electoral College votes of those states and that one district in Maine to the Electoral College votes of the 24 states carried by Romney, you have enough votes to win the presidency.
Which is exactly what Donald John Trump did.
Please read "Trump the Press," in which I skewer media experts who wrongly predicted Trump would lose the Republican nomination. I dedicated an entire chapter to Nate Silver. "Trump the Press" is available as a paperback, and on Kindle.
For an autographed copy, email me at DonSurber@GMail.com