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Monday, December 12, 2016

Nate Silver: Actually Comey had no effect on the election before Comey decided it

From the Hill: "Nate Silver: Clinton 'almost certainly' would've won before FBI letter."

From Nate Silver:
In fact, the shift looks pretty similar to a period in July after Comey reprimanded but did not charge Clinton for her email server and testified before Congress about it. That period produced about a 2-point swing against Clinton.
The news may also have had an effect down-ballot. Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate were generally hovering around 70 percent in late October. Today, they’re 50 percent. It doesn’t take a lot to swing the numbers in the Senate forecast because of the large number of competitive races — even a 1-point swing toward Republicans because of higher turnout could affect the odds significantly.
So will the latest Comey letter help Clinton? That’s also hard to say, and any change will really come too late to be picked up on by most polls. It’s also plausible that the headlines themselves aren’t particularly helpful to Clinton, even if the news itself is. The Washington Post’s current web headline, for instance, is “FBI Director Comey says agency won’t recommend charges over Clinton email,” which reminds readers that Clinton was being investigated by the FBI for her email practices. Still, betting markets show Clinton’s probability of winning the election improving by about 3 percentage points on the news.
Oh wait, that was Nate two days before the election.

Now a month later, Nate blames Comey for President Trump's election.

No one should care what Nate Silver thinks or says.

He was wrong about the Republican nomination. He was wrong about the general election.

Which is OK, we all make mistakes.

Except predicting the outcome of elections is what he does for a living.

@@@

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17 comments:

  1. Nate's opinions aren't the gold standard.

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    2. His credibility has sunk like a lead pipe in water.

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  2. I think Comey realized that he should've just let things go after he publicly discussed the investigation the first time and his second statement was to make up for the first. Then he realized that he'd had another effect and made his last one as a damper on the first two. He in effect became a porpoising feedback system all his own. Sort of like a smart kid getting caught in a lie by mom. Not speaking for myself of course.

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    2. Actually, a smart kid soon learns that nothing gets you off the hook faster than a good straight-line.

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    3. Especially if Mom is smarter.

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  3. Nate who? Another pundit with an agenda but without a clue. - Elric

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  4. Speech may be silvern, but this is ridiculous.

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  5. Silver's reputation is now tarnished. He's desperately trying to restore the luster. Good luck with that, Nate boy.

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  6. Nate Silver, Twice (maybe thrice?) Tarnished.

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  7. Comey affected the outcome of the election because nobody knew hillary was a lying crooked treasonous thief before he issued his letter?

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    1. (Sarc alert) No, Jim. Everyone thought she was pure as the driven snow. Rose Law Firm, Whitewater, stock futures, Webb's child, Vince Foster, Benghazi, Wikileaks, and then she ends her act by calling us deplorables. Nice.

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  8. The Ozark Mafia owned Comey, but he didn't sink her.

    Guys like Ned Silver did.

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