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Friday, December 30, 2016

2016 predictions

The political experts nailed 2016, didn't they?

From David French of National Review on December 31, 2015:
America will follow its first black president with its first Latino president, and the media will be anguished. When Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz wins a convincing election-night victory, don’t expect the media to gush about a new era in American politics or the next great milestone in American inclusiveness. Instead, expect rending of garments and gnashing of teeth — with much hand-wringing that America is “going backward” into a “new era of intolerance.” Progressive politics trumps identity every time.
I like how he not only predicted who would win, but how the losers would react.

More from French:
Meanwhile, in the world of sports, the Arizona Cardinals will win the Super Bowl, and the San Antonio Spurs will beat LeBron James once again to claim the NBA championship.
Well, at least his predictions were consistently wrong.

OK, everyone got the 2016 race wrong except for Ann Coulter, Scott Adams, me, and a million other people who see America as something larger than Manhattan and the District of Columbia.

Predictions are so hard, no matter what your area of expertise is.

From Vito Racanelli of Barron's: "The pros’ mean forecast puts the S and P 500 at 2220 at year-end 2016, propelled by modest earnings growth. Why financials and tech could lead."

That would be a 10 percent gain -- and it is pretty much on the money, as it closed at 2,238.83 today.

So yes, you can get it right.

If you know what you are talking about.

My prediction for next year?

Not as sure as I was a year ago. A Browns win on Sunday would be nice. Cavs could repeat. Indians-Cubs rematch with a healthy Salazar and Carrasco (as well as Kluber and the bullpen) could end a 69-year drought for Cleveland in the World Series.

Now for the stuff I know about.

Trump, Putin, and Bibi could end the Islamic State.

The biggest jolt in the U.S. economy since 2000 (the last time its annual growth topped 4 percent) could happen. We haven't topped 7 percent in 32 years. That could happen in 2017 or 2018.

I do know this: Conservatives will get the Supreme Court back, and the Trump appointee will be Scalia-worthy -- as will the two more he likely will get to appoint in his first term.

I know that because I looked at his list of choices, and the actuarial charts.

Finally, I also know that some idiot sometime in the coming year will write how President Trump disappointed his supporters. He won't. We expect nothing from him. All we wanted was for someone to stand up for America, and not their self interest.

Of all the people who sought this office this year, Trump was the one who needed it least.

That is why he is president.

Good things will happen. Bad things, too. But I think we turned the corner in 2016 and went back to being the United States of America again. Which is great.


Please read "Trump the Press," in which I skewer media experts who wrongly predicted Trump would lose the Republican nomination. "Trump the Press" is available as a paperback, and on Kindle.

For an autographed copy, email me at

Also, "Exceptional Americans" is available in paperback and on Kindle.


  1. I predict an unprecedented amount of crying, whining, fake news, false accusations, and innuendo from the democrat Party, the mainstream media, and the SJWs - but I repeat myself. Otherwise, I look forward to a great year and a bountiful harvest of schadenfreude. - Elric

  2. Schadenfreude for everyone in the house, Barkeep! I'm buying!

    French got the losers' reactions correct. Yes, he did.

    1. I keep singing that tune from Mary Poppins, you know it, everyone, sing along with me...."Supercalifragiliciousschadenfrendelicious...

  3. I predict Nate Silver will keep his losing streak alive and get a majority of his 2017 predictions wrong....again. You can take that to the bank.

  4. The French and German leadership will continue to be kamikaze peckerheads.

    See, predicting ain't all that hard at all.

  5. Best all time prediction evah...

    --> Don will not run out of material in the coming year. Nope.

    (It follows, then, that George Will will not come to us)

  6. I predict the Browns and the 49ers won't win the Super Bowl.

  7. Trump may indeed get to make 3 SCOTUS appointments in his first term but RBG won't be one of them. The LibDems will do a Weekend at Bernie's bit with her. She already looks like a goner in most pictures.

  8. When might the libs wake up from their long national nightmare and start to come to grips with reality, i.e. that nothing bad happened with the Trump Administration?

    HAHAHAHA just kidding, that will never happen.