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Tuesday, November 01, 2016

Trump up 3.6 points nationally

The Los Angeles Times tracking poll has it Trump 46.9, Hillary 43.3 this morning as he enjoys his best numbers and biggest lead in a month.

The most accurate poll in the 2012 race was the RAND Corporation poll which was based more on a Nielsen ratings system than the classic model of randomly calling voters. The Los Angeles Times tracking poll is based on the RAND model.

Trump's lead has grown from 1.9 points on Sunday to 3.6 today. One week ago, he was down by 0.9 points. Overall, he mainly has led in this poll.

The Investor's Business Daily poll has it Hillary 44.6, Trump 43.7. Among the traditional random dial polls, IBD was the most accurate in 2012.

Split the difference between the polls and I have four words for Secretary Hillary:
You're going to ja-il!
Both polls asked voters to pick their winners. IBD has 46% picking Hillary, 25% Trump. LAT has it 55.2% picking her, 40.2% picking him -- and yet despite think he will lose, people are voting for Trump.

There is something downright and fundamentally American about that.

The big news of course is the vaunted ABC News tracking poll that showed Hillary up 12 points just a week ago has given Trump a one-point lead this morning.

What have I been telling readers about most of these polls? They are not rigged. They are just wrong. Never discount the possibility of incompetence and sloth when it comes to journalism.

I ain't blowing smoke. I am just trying to share some insights about a trade I plied for 35 years.


Please read "Trump the Press," a fun romp through the Republican nomination that uses the deadliest weapon to skewer the media experts: their own words. "Trump the Press" is available as a paperback, and on Kindle.


  1. You weren't wasting your time, you were gaining experience. When I told one of my patients that I was retiring he reminded me that I had taken care of four generations of his family. Half of them are dead. I may have helped them some along the way, but no one lives forever. One thing that I take away is all of the conversations with older folks about how they lived their lives and the plans they made, and how they did or did not work out. Personal issues. I've seen people who were married for fifty years get divorced and improbable matches survive for decades longer than I thought they would. I hated taking care of the dregs of society, but learned from their many, many mistakes. I also got to see the hypocrisy of a lot of upstanding citizens eat away at their health because evil always destroys, even if silently.
    The legacy media was your patient. It was, and is slowly dying, as it should. You learned from the experience and gained more than most who do it because you looked farther into it than a mere technician.

  2. Thanks, doc. Changed the wording. I was trying to be flip.

  3. Your next book is going to be an even BIGGER blockbuster, Big D! Make sure to include the Kasich quote about supporting whoever the nominee is. And then he writes in...McCain. Sellout mother fu--er.

  4. I've been watching the L.A. Times/USC/Dornsife polling daily. The past few days have been glorious and I recommend everybody have a look.

    The Comey-correction was announced Friday 10/28. The LAT poll averages the past week's polling results, so today's 3.6% spread only incorporates less than half the impact of that announcement. And since that announcement, Trump has gone up every day and the Harpy has gone either down or sideways every day. And even better the spread is beginning to be statistically significant (i.e. moving beyond the statistical margin of error).

    Regarding jail, I do think there needs to be prosecution both of the mishandling of classified data and the Clinton Foundation protection racket, so the facts are all out there. But the punishment should be based on Christian clemency. For example, I'd be OK with a sentence of home confinement with both the Rapist and the Harpy together in the same house for 15 years with anklets for both of them and no possibility of parole.

    Steve in Greensboro

    1. A slightly different take on "living in the big house".

  5. The ship was already sinking.

    Friday the boiler blew.

  6. Yeah, all the ships are leaving the sinking rat.