In 1980, Reagan won 50.7 to 41 over the bungling, inept Jimmy Carter.
But at least President Carter was not corrupt.
However, 52.6 percent of those in the Los Angeles Times poll saw she will win, while 43.1 percent say he will.
All the experts say she will win. Nate Silver (N8 Ag for short) gives her a 65.4 percent chance. Real Clear Politics gives her a 78.2 percent chance.
This is not 1980, they argue. We did not have as sophisticated polls back then, they argue.
The poll averages missed by 3 points last time. Gallup missed by 5 points in 1980.
Real Clear Politics gives her a 1.8-point lead. (2.3 in a four-way.)
Meanwhile, Matt Drudge has them tied in Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
Obama won those states by, respectively, 5.4 points, 9.5 points, 5.6 points, 6.7 points, and 5.3 points.
He also won Ohio by 3 points, a state N8 Ag gives Trump a 69.2 percent chance of winning.
And he won Florida by 0.9 points, which N8 Ag gives Trump a 53 percent chance of winning.
Trump is ahead in every state Romney won.
We shall see on Tuesday. I mean the experts were so right about the nomination.
Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another Home Alone movie with Macaulay Culkin—or playing in the NBA Finals—than winning the Republican nomination.—Harry Enten, FiveThirtyEight, June 16, 2015