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Saturday, November 05, 2016

Trump 48, Hillary 42.6

Donald John Trump is inching to not only a plurality victory, but a majority as well because it finally is dawning on the American people who the lesser of two evils are. According to the Los Angeles Times poll, Trump leads by 5.4 points as it is Trump 48, Hillary 42.6.

In 1980, Reagan won 50.7 to 41 over the bungling, inept Jimmy Carter.

But at least President Carter was not corrupt.

However, 52.6 percent of those in the Los Angeles Times poll saw she will win, while 43.1 percent say he will.

All the experts say she will win. Nate Silver (N8 Ag for short) gives her a 65.4 percent chance. Real Clear Politics gives her a 78.2 percent chance.

This is not 1980, they argue. We did not have as sophisticated polls back then, they argue.

The poll averages missed by 3 points last time. Gallup missed by 5 points in 1980.

Real Clear Politics gives her a 1.8-point lead. (2.3 in a four-way.)

Meanwhile, Matt Drudge has them tied in Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.

Obama won those states by, respectively, 5.4 points, 9.5 points, 5.6 points, 6.7 points, and 5.3 points.

He also won Ohio by 3 points, a state N8 Ag gives Trump a 69.2 percent chance of winning.

And he won Florida by 0.9 points, which N8 Ag gives Trump a 53 percent chance of winning.

Trump is ahead in every state Romney won.

We shall see on Tuesday. I mean the experts were so right about the nomination.
Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another Home Alone movie with Macaulay Culkin—or playing in the NBA Finals—than winning the Republican nomination.
—Harry Enten, FiveThirtyEight, June 16, 2015


Hate the media? Love The Donald? "Trump the Press" is the book for you. It skewers media experts with their own words. "Trump the Press" is available as a paperback, and on Kindle


  1. It just is not going to happen. Trump will lose. And I will be drinking more Scotch.

    1. Another NeverTrumper who'd rather see Frumpty win so she can feel superior.

  2. Never put your trust in people who make a living by purporting to measure "opinion." They are most likely advancing their own opinion. Look around you. Talk to people. Vote. - Elric

    1. I just came across this headline at Heatstreet : "Presidential Pollsters’ Political Contributions: Heavily For Hillary Clinton." That pretty much says it all about these skewed polls. - Elric

  3. We know they've been spotting her 5 - 8 points at least and, in many cases, more.

    This is why the vote fraud started early.

  4. Spent the last few days in NC - did not see one Hillary yard sign, lots of Tump signs though.

  5. You forgot to open comments on the Charlie Cook post so I'm doing it here.
    I used to look at Mike Shedlock's financial blog every morning until after the first debate when he declared that Trump had thrown away the race by being ill-prepared for it. Said he was voting for Gary Johnson. I called him a political idiot and he banned me. Then a week or so ago he reversed himself and said as long as Trump has any chance at all he's voting for him. Did he unban me? Nope. He may be voting the right way, but he's still a political idiot.

  6. We REALLY want to embarrass the pollsters!