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Tuesday, November 08, 2016

Trump 46.8, Hillary 43.6

David Lauter, political reporter of the Los Angeles Times, may disown his newspaper's own poll, but its final numbers are: Trump 46.8, Hillary 43.6.

The Investor's Business Daily poll has it Trump 45, Hillary 43.4.

All the rest are crap, poisoned by the same credentialed-but-not-educated journalists who have Gone Washington.

But Lauter whizzed on his newspaper's poll:
The biggest difference between the Daybreak poll and most other surveys involves what pollsters refer to as weighting, the process of adjusting a poll's data to make sure it properly represents the diversity of the population. The Daybreak poll uses a weighting plan that is more complicated than most other surveys — perhaps too complex.
As Ernie Tedeschi, a Washington-based economist and former Treasury Department official, has shown, if you take the Daybreak poll's data — which USC made available to the public — and weight it more in line with the usual system pollsters use, you get results that largely match the polling averages.
Obama appointed Tedeschi to Treasury as a "senior advisor and economist," a gig that last from January 2012 to December 2013. Call me paranoid, but methinks the man may just be biased.

Lauter and his newspaper's final Electoral College guess:
Hillary 352
Trump 186
We shall see. Here is My Final Prediction.

Vote for Trump, or go take a nap. Or do both.

Just remember, most people think Trump will lose and yet tens of millions still will stand in line for hours to vote for him today.


Odds are "Trump the Press" is the book for you. It skewers media experts who wrongly predicted Trump would lose the Republican nomination. I use my deadliest weapon: their own words. "Trump the Press" is available as a paperback, and on Kindle.


  1. I think he will lose a very close one, in line with the 272-266 predictions I'm seeing on polling averages.

    But I voted against HilLIARy today, despite what I think, and I hope I'm wrong in my prediction.

    I do think Trump will win Ohio and North Carolina. The rest I don't know about it, but my old home state of Florida I am very nervous about.

    Get out and vote if you haven't done so already. If you don't vote against HilLIARary, you have no right to complain about her. (and, yeah, voting 3rd party doesn't count as voting against HilLIARy).

  2. He'll lose in my really blue state, but HILLARY DELENDA EST.

  3. Turnout is apparently good, so I think that's bad for the Beast.

    The usual (sad to say) vote fraud is ongoing.

    Trump has put enough states in play, he has several paths and I'm a tad skeptical of the LAT poll, as it dropped, what?, 2 points in the last 2 days. Al Reuters OTOH shows a big swoon for her, so you can take your pick.

  4. West Virginia just called for Trump. No surprise there. Way to go Don and your fellow W. Virginians!