Their predictions now are what matters, not what they say the night before or even the morning of the election. That's CYA stuff. My betting window closed today.
And with a week to go, they are all with Hillary and they all predict she will win big. They base this on averages of the polls that they weigh. This is the way they have "always" done things -- dating back to 2008.
From Josh Katz at the New York Times:
Hillary Clinton has an 89% chance to win.
From Nate Silver at 538:The Upshot’s elections model suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency, based on the latest state and national polls. A victory by Mr. Trump remains possible: Mrs. Clinton’s chance of losing is about the same as the probability that an N.F.L. kicker misses a 33-yard field goal.
Chance of winning: Clinton 75.4% Trump 24.6%
We got another set of mixed results on Monday on whether the election has tightened further as a result of FBI Director James Comey’s letter to Congress about Hillary Clinton’s email server. Overall, however, this is a fairly negative set of data for Clinton.
While this is not a terrible set of numbers for Clinton — and probably not the “game changer” that the Comey news was billed as on Friday — I’ve also seen analyses that go too far in the other direction and conclude that the news hasn’t really had any impact. Clinton’s popular vote lead is down to 4.7 percentage points in our forecast, as compared with 5.7 percentage points on Friday and 7.1 percentage points two weeks ago. And Trump’s chances of winning are 24 percent in the polls-only model, up from 19 percent on Friday and 12 percent two weeks ago. Trump’s chances are 26 percent in the polls-plus model, which is converging with polls-only.From Real Clear Politics: Hillary 81% chance, Trump 19%.
From Huffington Post: Hillary 98.2% Trump 1.6%
From David Jarman at Daily Kos:
You’ve probably already OD’d on reading about Friday’s cryptic Comey memo, which re-opened the email can of worms (if only to reveal the can was empty), from every legal and messaging angle. I don't have anything to add about it from those perspectives, so I’ll just stay in my lane here and answer the questions about “what does this do to the polls?!?” It’s a pretty simple answer, though: nothing so far. The Daily Kos Elections model is still holding steady in the mid-90s, currently giving Hillary Clinton 96 percent odds of victory according to Monday’s numbers.They say the polling is right because it has numbers, and because it has numbers, it is science!
Just like global warming.
Then there is Stuart Rothenberg whom Washington insiders consider an expert on forecasts. In the Washington Post on October 18, Rothenberg wrote: "Trump’s path to an electoral college victory isn’t narrow. It’s nonexistent."
His fellow Washington insider-worshiped guru Charlie Cook wrote on October 25:
Republicans will now have four years to think about what they did to themselves this year, plenty of time to contemplate the consequences of handing over their party’s car keys to the tea-party movement and watching as the quintessential tea partier, Donald Trump, drove the car over a cliff. If Republicans are really, really lucky, their current 54-46 Senate majority will only be cut back to 51-49. Losing the Senate is at least an even bet, and some analysts think the GOP’s chances are much worse than that. If the Republicans are really fortunate, they can keep their House losses down to 15 seats or so, half of their current margin. Then there are the 12 gubernatorial races, where Republicans once hoped to pick up three to four seats. Also in play are 5,920 of the nation’s 7,383 state legislative seats, 80.2 percent of the total, according to Ballotpedia. State legislative seats are a party’s future, their seed corn. Democrats can tell you what having devastating midterm elections can do, as it happened to them in 2010 and 2014.My prediction? They are wrong. I base this on the fact that they all got Trump wrong in the nomination process. And by the crowds. And by the news. And by the fact that Trump finally is rolling out ads, and those ads are devastating.
But mostly I base this on the message: Make America Great Again. It has always been about the message, not the messenger.
I drive through Nitro, West Virginia, regularly. A town that in the 1980s smelled of the chemical industry is Hulda Avenue in Cleveland in the 1960s, populated by retired people who cannot sell their homes.
Young people in rural America have OxyContin and heroin, not jobs.
They deserve better than another Clinton, and people will vote accordingly.
We shall see.
Please read "Trump the Press," a fun romp through the Republican nomination that uses the deadliest weapon to skewer the media experts: their own words. "Trump the Press" is available as a paperback, and on Kindle.