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Monday, November 07, 2016

Nate Silver vs. Jim Hoft

Which one is right?

And just to piss off my trolls...


  1. Take a look at the last map at this link that shows how the electoral college would have worked out if the electoral votes were by congressional district. Then consider places like Michigan and who we expect to turn out in force and who may be less enthusiastic.

    I expect lower voter turnout in congressional districts that went for Obama in 2012.

  2. Ned Silver is a lying shill.

    I think Hoft's numbers are just wrong.

    I agree with Don on OH and, just by the cancellation of the fireworks last Thursday, I'd say the Beast does, too.

    1. Maybe the cancellation was a fire marshall that didn't cave to the clintons.

  3. Someone said that the line for the Grand Rapids rally is longer than the one for the Gerald Ford funeral.

  4. I think Trump will win Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina, and he needs to win to have a realistic chance.

    I think Silver is probably closer to right than Tuft, but I think Silver is definitely underestimating Trumps vote as are most of the polls everywhere.

    I basically will be watching Virginia tomorrow night. If Trump wins Virginia, he will win all the states he needs to win to win the presidency. If he loses Virginia, it will be very difficult to win the election without either Michigan or Pennsylvania to replace it.

    I have long predicted that Trump's most likely path goes through Virginia.

    I am optimistic mostly because Trump has run so well in the polls in places like Iowa and Ohio consistently- this tells me there are probably a number of really faulty polls elsewhere if those two states are accurate. I hope it isn't the case that it is those two polls that are inaccurate- if they are, Trump is going to lose as badly or worse than Romney did. However, all else being equal, I think it more likely the polls in the southern states are the inaccurate ones, and by a fair margin.

  5. And I will add just one more thing before calling it a night. The reason I put more faith, for example, in the Iowa polling is because that poll is easier to model against the last two elections- there are just not that many African-Americans or Hispanics in Iowa, so whatever guess you are making about their turnout and voting patterns, it is just overwhelmed by the response of white voters, which in this cycle's polling, shows they prefer Trump. However, in states like Virginia and North Carolina, where each has more than 20% African-American population, you can go really, really wrong by assuming the same turnout levels and support that Obama got.

    So, I am basically saying that if North Carolina's polling is accurate and Clinton has the edge, then Trump will lose badly everywhere Romney lost in 2012. I have to believe NC is actually in Trump's safe column, and by a margin greater than Romney achieved. If so, then Trump is a good deal of the way to winning VA, FL, OH, IA, and probably NV, too.

  6. This white guy in VA is pulling the lever for Trump today

    1. Farm Boy, you are a great American.

    2. Thanks Zreg, I appreciate your compliment tremendously!! Let's win this GD thing!!

  7. Well, my brothers and we go. I have voted in every primary and general since 1986 and have never been as excited to cast my vote as I am today.

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