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Monday, November 07, 2016

My final prediction

Ohio.

That is my final, take-it-to-the-bank, money-back guaranteed prediction: Donald John Trump will take Ohio. This is big because such a victory should mean that with Ohio, Trump takes the 45th presidency.

My prediction is based on several factors that go well beyond my contrarian inclinations.

First and foremost are the crowds. Trump packs them in. She does not.

In Cleveland, Hilary offered both Beyonce and Jay Z in concert for free on Friday night. Only 10,000 people took up the offer despite 13,000 seats being available. Why? Because they would have had to listen to Hillary.

Second is John Kasich.

In 2014, Kasich became the first governor to win 86 of Ohio's 88 counties, including the most populous and Democratic county, Cuyahoga. And his opponent was a Cuyahoga County commissioner. Kasich has done a good job, which has turned Ohio ruby red. He refused to vote for Trump? So what? People know that was Kasich pouting.

The Kasich effect is felt across the nation as Republican own most of the state legislatures and most of the governorships.

Third are the polls. They are crap, of course, but they favor Trump in Ohio by three points or so right now.

Fourth is Obamacare. Hospitalization insurance premiums in Ohio rise another 25 percent in January. Way to go, Democrats.

So Trump wins Ohio.

Democrats blow this off because the population of Ohio is above the national average in whiteness (16th place) and age (17th place).

So what? Vermont is the whitest and second-oldest state in the country. Hillary will stomp Trump in Vermont.

People judge candidates with something other than the color of their skin or the content of their calendar.

Readers know by now that no Republican has won the presidency without Ohio.

Guess what? The same applies to Democrats. Only one Democrat has won the presidency without Ohio since 1860. That would be Jack Kennedy in 1960. But Hillary is no Jack Kennedy.

Now my one misgiving is that James Buchanan won the presidency in 1856 without Ohio. And definitely, Hillary is a James Buchanan.

But that was the first Republican-Democratic race, as the Republican Party formed in 1854.

I am positively sure Trump wins Ohio.

I am almost as sure that will win him the presidency as well because Ohio has determined the winner in 39 of the last 40 presidential elections. Therefore, the odds of Ohio determining this one are 39 in 40, which is 97.5 percent.

Evidently, the Clinton campaign agrees.

From the Daily Mail:
Hillary Clinton's campaign has called off its planned election night firework display, it emerged Monday, the day before America goes to the polls.
Staffers were going to put on a two-minute show over the Hudson River after the results come in on Tuesday, but the proposal has been canned, TMZ reported on Monday.
The campaign called the Coast Guard last week to tell them the event was off, three days after the New York Post reported it was planning the bash, although the cancellation was secret until Monday.

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Odds are "Trump the Press" is the book for you. It skewers media experts who wrongly predicted Trump would lose the Republican nomination. I use my deadliest weapon: their own words. "Trump the Press" is available as a paperback, and on Kindle.

27 comments:

  1. In my little corner of NE OH, which includes Akron and Cleveland, I've seen a lot more Trump signs (maybe 5 to 1) and bumper stickers.

    If that means anything Don's right.

    And calling off the fireworks last week says a lot.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. And LeBron's endorsement of Hillary will trump all those yard signs and bumper stickers too.

      Delete
    2. Keep telling yourself that, anonymous poser on the internet.
      Your opinion v. Don's -- a journalist & political columnist for 30 years who's called every election right with 2 books under his belt.
      Gee, which one has more validity?

      ~Angie

      Delete
    3. Of course she's cancelled the fireworks. She's going to need all that bunkerage to achieve orbit the morning after.

      It's a long way back to Planet Shirley Maclaine and at least some of the Feds are early risers.

      Delete
    4. You mean Don the "journalist" as in the profession that Trump calls most corrupt group of individuals who have ever lived?
      Trump hasn't called every election correctly for the last 30 years and he will tell you that.
      But I love your sports reference below about the Cubs - they just beat Surber's hometown Indians who had a 3-1 series lead. Thanks for playing though.

      Delete
    5. The Horace Cope polling method, Anonymous?

      Delete
    6. Changing the subject again, Nonnyass. We were talking about what, if anything you have ever accomplished.

      Delete
    7. Anonymous said...

      And LeBron's endorsement of Hillary will trump all those yard signs and bumper stickers too.

      That sounds very much like a racist judgment. You'd be surprised how few people around here care what a drop-out thinks.

      Delete
  2. Thanks, Mr. Surber. I have enjoyed your book and your posts tremendously over this last magical year plus. MAGA

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks for reading my book. Share. Read it to an invalid. An Amazon review would be nice, appreciated, and re-posted here.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You want him to read it to Crooked Cankles?

      Delete
    2. She'd have to be hogtied (what a thought!) to stay still for it. (I know knots!!) The guards would be amused, but...

      Delete
  4. Trump's response to Clinton's concession speech a little while from now.

    "Don't nobody leave town, Hillary."

    ReplyDelete
  5. Somehow that "Gotta have OH" narrative has been missing for about 45 days. It did however dominate Rovian parceltongue during the nomination road show--Particularly during that summer period when corn dog Kasich was having small get togethers with Obama's globalist crowd.

    Meanwhile, OH with 18 EVs has been mysteriously replaced by Nevada with 6 EVs in every third paragraph.

    Weapons grade gaslighting.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I know. Ivanka's probably preparing a business plan for a magnificent new Trump tower out in LV. Meanwhile, Harry Reid is planting his face into his soup more and more often. NV's a lock for Trump.

      Delete
  6. Thanks Don.

    The MSM has been ignoring Ohio for a reason. It cuts against their narrative.
    Last night your favorite little Natey Silver (of "Trump has a better chance of playing in the NBA then winning the nomination" fame) conceded FL to Trump & said that Hillary has "around 270" EVs and was "one state away from losing." Although he concluded that her position was better than Trump's (I believe he's contractually obligated to say that) her position was not "safe." Guess he's tired of being so outrageously wrong and is hedging his bets.

    Brexit. Triple Crown. Cubs. This is the miracle win year. Lucky Trump.

    ~Angie

    ReplyDelete
  7. I'll see you and raise you, Big D. Trump wins PA, NY, NC, and FL. This will be over by about 10:30 PM. And that is about when I go to bed, so I expect a peaceful happy sleep tomorrow night.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wow, PA and NY??? I mean I am hoping for a Trump win, and the bigger the better, so I hope you are right, but PA AND NY? That would be cool.

      Delete
    2. Dude, I worked regulating the securities industry. NYC is all about the cojones, politically. If ya got em, they will come.

      Delete
  8. "Content of their calendar" - Nice. (polite golf applause)

    ReplyDelete
  9. I doubt Trump takes NY, though my wife and I will doing our part to help tomorrow. Unless upstate has a record turnout...

    ReplyDelete
  10. Wikileaks Top Emails revealed...

    http://commoncts.blogspot.com/2016/11/top-100-wikileaks-emails.html

    ReplyDelete
  11. From a comment I dropped at AoSHQ:


    "Good Afternoon, you don't know me but I'm the chief assistant editor for National Topsider magazine. National Topsider is proud to carry on the great traditions of conservativism, namely tasteful clothing, silly east coast accents, Ivy league colleges, and being ethnically diverse. By that I mean some of our best friends are descended from the Dutch.

    This year conservativism has faced its greatest challenge yet, an upstart that has taken over the GOP. Now, we aren't sure which species of madness has infected the easily startled and stampeded herd, but we are putting forth an alternative of true conservativeness, namely Egg McMuffin - I mean, Evan McMullin - to counter the ogre Trump. If you do not wish to suffer our glaring disdain and our sniffs of despite you will go and vote McMuffin - McMullin - on November 7. If not we will kick you all out of our party and forbid you from voting for any of our stalwart candidates ever again - that'll show you who is boss, eh?

    Now go forth and do your duty, as publisher T. Coddington VanVorhees VII says "Never too early for a gin and tonic these days so get to mixing already or you're fired."

    -Mikey NTH

    ReplyDelete
  12. Kennedy won without Ohio, but massive corruption in Illinois and Texas.

    Clinton counting on the corruption.

    She will be schlonged!!!!

    ReplyDelete
  13. Talked with an Aussie yesterday in O'Hare. Discussed election, agreed Trump would win. He said it was the right thing to do but wasn't happy about the prospect of receiving the stephanopolises as new fellow citizens. Why don't those losers move to Mexico.

    ReplyDelete
  14. From your lips to God's ears, Don. I hope you're right. —Burnsie

    ReplyDelete
  15. Trump won the vote, 16 - 4, in Millsfield, New Hampshire. Bernie got a write in.

    ReplyDelete