That is my final, take-it-to-the-bank, money-back guaranteed prediction: Donald John Trump will take Ohio. This is big because such a victory should mean that with Ohio, Trump takes the 45th presidency.
My prediction is based on several factors that go well beyond my contrarian inclinations.
First and foremost are the crowds. Trump packs them in. She does not.
In Cleveland, Hilary offered both Beyonce and Jay Z in concert for free on Friday night. Only 10,000 people took up the offer despite 13,000 seats being available. Why? Because they would have had to listen to Hillary.
Second is John Kasich.
In 2014, Kasich became the first governor to win 86 of Ohio's 88 counties, including the most populous and Democratic county, Cuyahoga. And his opponent was a Cuyahoga County commissioner. Kasich has done a good job, which has turned Ohio ruby red. He refused to vote for Trump? So what? People know that was Kasich pouting.
The Kasich effect is felt across the nation as Republican own most of the state legislatures and most of the governorships.
Third are the polls. They are crap, of course, but they favor Trump in Ohio by three points or so right now.
Fourth is Obamacare. Hospitalization insurance premiums in Ohio rise another 25 percent in January. Way to go, Democrats.
So Trump wins Ohio.
Democrats blow this off because the population of Ohio is above the national average in whiteness (16th place) and age (17th place).
So what? Vermont is the whitest and second-oldest state in the country. Hillary will stomp Trump in Vermont.
People judge candidates with something other than the color of their skin or the content of their calendar.
Readers know by now that no Republican has won the presidency without Ohio.
Guess what? The same applies to Democrats. Only one Democrat has won the presidency without Ohio since 1860. That would be Jack Kennedy in 1960. But Hillary is no Jack Kennedy.
Now my one misgiving is that James Buchanan won the presidency in 1856 without Ohio. And definitely, Hillary is a James Buchanan.
But that was the first Republican-Democratic race, as the Republican Party formed in 1854.
I am positively sure Trump wins Ohio.
I am almost as sure that will win him the presidency as well because Ohio has determined the winner in 39 of the last 40 presidential elections. Therefore, the odds of Ohio determining this one are 39 in 40, which is 97.5 percent.
Evidently, the Clinton campaign agrees.
From the Daily Mail:
Hillary Clinton's campaign has called off its planned election night firework display, it emerged Monday, the day before America goes to the polls.
Staffers were going to put on a two-minute show over the Hudson River after the results come in on Tuesday, but the proposal has been canned, TMZ reported on Monday.
The campaign called the Coast Guard last week to tell them the event was off, three days after the New York Post reported it was planning the bash, although the cancellation was secret until Monday.
Odds are "Trump the Press" is the book for you. It skewers media experts who wrongly predicted Trump would lose the Republican nomination. I use my deadliest weapon: their own words. "Trump the Press" is available as a paperback, and on Kindle.