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Saturday, November 26, 2016

Media missed President Trump stock rally

The Dow Jones, the NASDAQ, the S and P 500, and the Russell 2000 all reached all-time highs on Friday -- three weeks after the news media declared the election of President Trump would shove the economy of the cliff.

From CNBC on November 3:
This is what could happen to the stock market if Donald Trump wins
Wall Street's long-running view that Hillary Clinton would easily become the next president has been replaced by a new fear that Donald Trump could win, and it probably won't be a pretty picture for stocks if he does.
Bond yields have moved lower and so have stocks, as the markets have begun to react to the possibility of a Trump victory in the last several days. On Thursday, the S&P 500 was up slightly, after falling 13 points Wednesday, to close at the key support level of 2,097.
The work of two economics professors may provide a glimpse of how the stock market might react if Donald Trump were elected. They studied the predictions market, including PredictIt.org and the reaction in the financial markets to events around the election. One of the economists says their findings point to a sharp immediate sell-off if Trump wins and a slight rally if Clinton wins. The amount of the rally or sell-off depends on the predicted outcome.
"If we were to go in 70/30 [for Clinton], and we think the market is 10 percent higher under Clinton than Trump, if Clinton wins it should be up about 3 percent and if Trump wins, it should go down 7 percent," said Eric Zitzewitz, economics professor at Dartmouth College. He and Justin Wolfers of the University of Michigan studied the market effect of the first debate in a Brookings paper. Clinton's odds in the prediction markets had been closer to 80 percent, and at that level, a Trump victory would have triggered an 8 to 10 percent sell-off, he said.
Fake News.

Yes they lied. Of course they lied. They are paid to lie. CNBC is a subsidiary (pawn) of Comcast whose officials made contributions (paid bribes) to the Clinton Foundation and Hillary's campaign.

@@@

"Trump the Press" skewers media experts who wrongly predicted Trump would lose the Republican nomination. I use my deadliest weapon: their own words. "Trump the Press" is available as a paperback, and on Kindle.

17 comments:

  1. Of course the media missed it. It didn't fit their narrative. Reporting actual news is so passé. - Elric

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
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  2. "I hear you've been missing a lot of work lately, Bob."
    "Oh, I wouldn't say I was 'missing' it."
    From Office Space.
    They're phoning it in. Have been for years. You have to work at getting facts right and doing an honest job of prognosticating. It takes no effort whatsoever to lie.

    ReplyDelete
  3. They musta been reading Paullie "The Beard" Krugman's prediction that the market would tank. And believed him!

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    Replies
    1. And Paulie said the markets would not recover from their initial drop.

      Delete
  4. Don, let's give the media the benefit of the doubt. They are not paid to lie, it comes naturally to them. Getting paid for doing it is just a perk of the job.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Since the end of July (before the Republican Convention), my stock holdings have declined in value by over $17,000. That is a drop of 15.6% and I made no change in my holdings.

    So if the media missed the stock rally, a whole bunch of us have also found our holdings less valuable.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Not a good portfolio. Matches your mind.

      Delete
    2. I am in a stock index fund. Too old to place bets

      Delete
    3. I've stuck with mutual funds in slightly varying mixes for thirty years. Never out of the market during recessions. Patience pays off.

      Delete
    4. Frozen Concentrated Spleen & Gall not working out for gadfly, huh?

      Delete
    5. Making the unjustified assumption that he's telling the truth...

      Delete
  6. Viral Live Feed - The Cards Against Humanity Holiday Hole


    http://commoncts.blogspot.com/2016/11/viral-live-feed-cards-against-humanity.html

    ReplyDelete
  7. Proud to say that I called this back in July and announced it to my family, some of whom are Libs. The Trump Bump. Optimism returns. Went hard long on my portfolio re stocks and have made a nice little $45k since. Expect more gains next week now that Fidel has bit the schnitzel and Black Friday revenues are exceeding expectations. MAGA!

    ReplyDelete
  8. Markets go up and down. I can safely say it will go down. When I have no clue. Trump himself said during the campaign the market was in bubble formation. 2 hours before he went over the top in electoral votes the futures were down 1000 points. So congratulations to the winners but for the losers your time will come. About 20 years ago I spent an entire day on the floor of the NY Stock exchange as the guest of a trader. I saw some amazing things many of which convinced me that insiders are better off than outsiders but not by much. The place was really a casino madhouse in which some used loaded dice on a rare occasion for a quick buck but accumulating large sums quickly was unlikely. At the end of the day I asked my friend if he had any tips, wink wink. He laughed and said he never traded in stocks himself, too risky! Under Obama and the suppressive Fed the market has been badly assymetric, accounting for unheard of wealth for a few and many like Mr Gadfly, who actually has many in sympathy with him, although not here I guess. I hope Trump does not make bubbles. If he avoids them, he may not be as popular as Bill Clinton in the short run but more people will better off in he long haul even as Democrats deny they are.
    One thing that seems lacking in the leftist personality is generosity, what the Romans called magnitudo animi. It also seems to often be a weak trait in the corporate rich. When the two combine as in the media of today, the gene is definitely suppressed. Comcast will never say anything nice about the president to be. That quality of kindness and its greatness evident in David Brinkley so long ago at NBC vanished forever into the fetid corporate jungle that swallowed it.

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  9. The markets were going down at the thought of another 4 years of Democrats.

    Once they know Trump would win - Zip!

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  10. I'm surprised that they haven't given the credit to Obama.

    ReplyDelete