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Sunday, November 13, 2016

"Clinton Probably Finished Off Trump Last Night"

Nate Silver on October 20, 2016, showed exactly why so many people consider him the gold standard in political forecasting.

From Nate Silver:
Clinton Probably Finished Off Trump Last Night
I’m not sure I need to tell you this, but Hillary Clinton is probably going to be the next president. It’s just a question of what “probably” means.
Clinton went into the final presidential debate on Wednesday with a lead of about 7 percentage points over Donald Trump. And according to the only two scientific polls we’ve seen, voters thought that Clinton won the debate. Occasionally, the initial reaction to a debate can differ from the way it’s perceived days later. But in this case, the morning headlines, which focused overwhelmingly on Trump’s refusal to say whether he’ll accept the election results, are potentially worse for Trump than the debate itself. In YouGov’s poll of debate watchers, 68 percent of voters said they think the candidates should pledge to accept the results of the election.
There are less than three weeks left in the campaign, and there are no more guaranteed opportunities for Trump or Clinton to command a huge public audience, as they do at the conventions and the debates (although, they’ll get plenty of attention, of course). Millions of people have already voted. Trump has had a significant advertising deficit, and an even more significant deficit in terms of his turnout operation. He’ll probably spend a significant chunk of the remaining news cycles quarreling over his contention that the election is rigged, and with the numerous women who have accused him of sexual assault. He doesn’t have an obvious — or even a not-so-obvious — path to the presidency.
Did I say gold standard?

I meant pinchbeck.

A year earlier, N8 Ag gave Trump less than a two percent chance of winning the nomination.

Should have read my book.

"Trump the Press" skewers N8 Ag and the rest of the political experts who blew the Republican nomination. I use the deadliest of weapons -- their own words.

"Trump the Press" is available as a paperback, and on Kindle. Autographed copies are $20 (includes shipping). Write me at DonSurber@GMail.com

The sequel is coming, thanks to readers and Nate Pewter.

17 comments:

  1. I'll have you know that Hillary won the fight on points despite the knockout

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  2. https://www.google.com/amp/www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/13/north-carolina-lawmaker-rebuked-over-fake-newspaper-article-about-election.amp.html
    "A North Carolina state lawmaker is under fire from his fellow Republican legislators after emailing them a fake newspaper headline that said “Trump forces black family from home” and showed a picture of the White House." Lol not just their home; public housing!

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    Replies
    1. Got that one. Funny stuff, but I still have a sense of humor.

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  3. One of my worries during the campaign that I never voiced at the time was that I was pleased that so many people had learned to distrust the major media early on, but as the conventions and debates approached I was worried that because almost all of the coverage and coordination was in the hands of the major media, that they would resume being able to dominate not only the process, but the decision-making done by the voters. I think that they succeeded to a point, but it was not enough to get them over the top. They have big worries coming up in the next few years. Talk about waning influence. Pretty flaccid already.

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    1. LOL! Yep, gotta keep an eye on TPdoc, he can slip 'em right in there!

      Besides, it isn't like there's any hard news around, is there?

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  4. As I said this summer...so looking forward to the sequel.

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  5. He was told ahead of time how many fake votes were needed in '12.

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  6. If it came down to Michigan, they would have recounted until they found 13,000 vote for hillary. Let's let oregon and california secede. The dems won't win the popular vote without california and nobody will notice oregon is missing.

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    Replies
    1. Can California and Oregon be required by the Supreme Court to secede? I am positive the same civil right used to force Christian bakers to bake cakes for homosexual weddings also applies to forcing out deep-blue states. Fair is fair!

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  7. "But in this case, the morning headlines, which focused overwhelmingly on Trump’s refusal to say whether he’ll accept the election results, are potentially worse for Trump than the debate itself."

    Like Silver, most pundits missed that Trump supporters understood him to mean that, if the Clinton campaign cheats, we're going to do our best to not let them get away with it. Because that's what he meant.

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  8. Nate is too tarnished to reflect any light.

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  9. Nate Silver? Is he kin of Hi Ho Silver?

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