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Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Apply the lessons of 2016 to 2018

Great historic victory. President Trump took 30 states, the most since 1988 for a Republican. Republicans were 22-12 in the Senate races, the best showing in a presidential race for a Republican since 1984. Looks like a 30- to 40-seat majority in the House, and control of most state legislatures and Governor's Mansions.

Great. That just means Republicans are behind as the 2018 race begins. Republicans need to learn the real lessons of 2016, and fast.

History shows a president's party gets creamed in the mid-term election if he takes voters for granted (Clinton in 1994, Bush in 2006, and Obama in 2010 and 2014) but he wins if he does not take voters for granted (Clinton in 1998, and Bush in 2002).

What we learned:

1. Reaching out to voters as Americans works. Not as blacks. Not as whites. Not as Hispanics. Not as men. Not as women. Not as LGBT. As Americans.

2. Name-calling backfires. Trump not only took six states that Obama won twice, but he took 22 that voted against Obama twice. Plus the two that he took in 2008 but lost in 2012. By playing the sex card, Hillary added no states and lost eight that Obama carried in 2008.

3. A message beats money. Even a rookie can beat a well-oiled, well-financed, experienced team.

4. Never Trump does not matter. I told readers in March that Trump can win without them. I am not Joe Genius. I looked at the map and saw most Never Trumpers lived in places Trump did not need to win: California, D.C., Maryland, New York, and Virginia.

5. BLM does not matter. We know that because Obama switched that machine off.

So far, sounds great for Republicans. Except it is not.

The 2016 race was closer than it needed to be because of Trump's mistakes.

1. He failed to court the media. Kellyanne Conway mitigated the damage by being a good fire extinguisher. Republicans need more reporters, editors, and pundits. This is a long-term problem.

2. Republicans failed to work together. Arizona and Utah were closer than they should have been. Don't know if Colorado could have been won but the state party seemed unenthusiastic. John Kasich beclowned himself in Ohio, but ironically because he did such a good job as governor, the Republican brand is high and Trump won.

3. Not staying on message hurts. Three words of advice for President Trump:
Let it go.
But that works two ways. Harry Reid may have cost his state Nevada by trying to play attack dog.

4. A Republican Congress has no accimolishments to show the public. The party has run out of excuses. With their pistols of 2018 raised, the voters say: "Stand and deliver."

Republicans will have to give the people -- not the lobbyists -- something.

I would build a wall, but that is just me.

Oh and indict the witch.

 @@@

"Trump the Press" skewers media experts who wrongly predicted Trump would lose the Republican nomination. I use my deadliest weapon: their own words. "Trump the Press" is available as a paperback, and on Kindle.

16 comments:

  1. Building a wall is a must. Another good place to make a mark is to balance the budget. Reduce spending. Rebuild the military. I'm not worried about Trump. I'm worried about the lackluster Congress. - Elric

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  2. Court the media strategically, but to hell with a White House Press Pool.

    Trump has better things to do each day than feed the chickens and slop out the pigs.

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    Replies
    1. A beeyooteeful sentiment. As one who has fed chickens and slopped hogs I can appreciate the uncanny similarity to the White House Press Pool. - Elric

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    2. I read that as White House Cesspool.
      Which it has been.

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  3. Trump must focus congress and get them to do something productive. Something the people want not what big business. Ryan is the wild card, don't trust him.
    Things to do in the next 18 months before the election:
    Supreme court pick
    Build the Wall
    Reverse Obama's EO's or send them to congress to vote on them
    Obamacare
    Stop the environmental movement from killing jobs and growth.
    And right before the election present a solution to deal with all the illegals in the country
    In 16 months get the economy booming



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  4. Re: 2. Republicans failed to work together

    It was worse than that. I'll never forgive Romney for his incredibly vicious attacks on Trump.

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  5. Disagree on courting the media. Trump won because he ran in opposition to the media. As POTUS he has a bully pulpit that will allow him to go around the media and speak directly to the voters.

    Additionally, history shows that the press poodles lick the boot that kicks them.

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  6. The Congress of '14 was worse than do-nothing.

    They collaborated with the enemy. If Ryan tries anything cute, his head should be on a pole posthaste.

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  7. Three Republicans have already introduced an amendment to restore earmarks. That's the kind of stuff that cost Republicans Congress in 2006 by allowing the Dimocrats, yes the Dimocrats, to run as fiscal conservatives. If the Republicans want to lose Congress, all they have to do is revert back to their big spending ways when Bush 43 was president. That gave us Horrible Harry, Speaker Blinky, and Obumbler. Watch your back President Trump. Paul Ryan and Bitch McConnell (along with John McRINO and Lindsey Graham) are waiting to stab you in the back.

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  8. The music I'm listening to tonight is, ironically, The Clash. Yeah, they were leftist, but they brang it with an attitude. That's what Congress needs to do. Sack up and let's get this done!

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  9. Trump can court the press all he wants, but the likes of communist infested CNN, (p)MSNBC, SeeBS etc will have nothing to do with it. Instead, it is up to us to find new sources of news worthy of our attention and sponsors advertising dollars.

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  10. The European allies made a point of punishing the Germans with the Treaty of Versailles after WW I. It gave them WW II. There is a path to pardon. It would require full disclosure and coming clean. Hey, stop laughing. It could happen

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    Replies
    1. You really sure America is ready for Bill Clinton goin' the full disclosure on national television?

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  11. "Harry Reid may have cost his state Nevada by trying to play attack dog." ??? Nevada went for Hillary. D's won the Senate race there too - which R's had been expected to flip.

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  12. And GOP won 22 of 34 Senate Races. OR GOP 22 Dem 12. We have extensive maps posted on CC here:

    http://commoncts.blogspot.com/2016/11/2016-presidential-election-maps.html

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  13. CO GOP members were dispirited by the Trumpians false claims of abuse following the state convention...dozens of PCPs (precint chair persons) failed to work for the GOP after that, yet CO state senators managed to retain control of Senate and not gain anything in the House. What does that mean? Not sure, but Trump might have won CO if he and his team hadn't been d*cks. He didn't need the CO delegates to win the nomination but he slandered an entire state of Republicans.

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