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Thursday, October 06, 2016

UPI: Trump would win today

If the election were held today, Donald Trump would win, United Press International reported.

According to UPI's state-tracking poll would be a slim victory of 292 to 246 in the Electoral College, and by 2.5 points in the popular vote.

Overall, Trump is up 49.38 percent to 46.89 percent.

The Los Angeles Times poll meanwhile has it Trump 46.6 percent, Hillary 42.6 percent this morning.

From UPI's state-tracking poll story:
Without counting battleground states, where Trump or Clinton have less than a 5-point lead, the candidates are tied in the Electoral College at 191. Including Electoral College votes from swing states, Trump would win the election with 292 electoral college votes to Clinton's 246.
The biggest shifts favoring Republicans this week came in Idaho, where Trump picked up an additional 1.6 percent percent of the vote and Clinton lost 1.1 percent. Trump now leads there by 30.4 percent. In Mississippi, he gained 1.5 percent and Clinton lost 0.9 percent. Trump now leads there by 16.8 percent.
Among swing states, the margin between Trump and Clinton narrowed the most in Colorado, North Carolina and Pennsylvania. Trump now has a 4.5-point lead in North Carolina and a 3.1-point lead in Pennsylvania, while Clinton has a 1.6-point lead in Colorado.
Pennsylvania is a must win for Hillary because the last Democrat to win without Pennsylvania was Harry Truman.

UPI has Trump ahead in every state Romney took, plus Iowa, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Oh, and remember those reports of Utah flipping Democrat?

Utah has now taken West Virginia's place as the Trumpiest state in the union. He leads there 66.6 to 28.2, his highest share and his largest lead. Sigh.


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  1. Remember how Ned Silver had Trump up 54 to 45 in chances to win and then, after the debate, everything jumped 18 points?

    That was because he organized a Journolist-style polling offensive to make it look as it Hillary had suddenly run away with the thing because the Lefties were so despondent.

    Everything I've heard out of PA bears out what Don says. The Philly burbs are quite Conservative and they can offset the inner city vote.

    PS Al Reuters is saying Trump is up 2 in CO. May be the MOE.

    1. The Philly burbs are going to have to have 161% of registered voters show up to offset the rigged Philly vote.

  2. Here's hoping Trump does better this Sunday than he did in the last debate. You know Anderson Cooper will be really gunning for him.

  3. It seems to me that the two opposing political camps at this time are like two armies. Trump's is composed of the normal complement of officers, NCO's, and rank and file. In Clinton's army, however, everyone's an honorary officer, with the media and grievance industry as the camp-followers.