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Saturday, October 22, 2016

Trump won't affect down ballot

The political experts continue their streak of misinforming the public by rolling out the Down Ballot Canard. The only connection between the Senate and House elections and the presidential election is that they are held on the same day.


I will prove my point, but first, let me trot out this bit of Washington Wisdom (known elsewhere as foolish) from Caitlin Huey-Burns and James Arkin of Real Clear Politics:
Trump's Troubles Inflict Pain Down Ballot
It’s a scenario weary Republican senators have grown accustomed to: On a given day, their 2016 presidential nominee stirs controversy, forcing them to interrupt their campaign schedules to respond. Donald Trump’s refusal on Wednesday night’s debate stage to say he would accept the results of the election presented yet another challenge to embattled incumbents focused on surviving the final three weeks of the campaign.
Many GOP Senate candidates have so far held steady against the weight of Trump. But their campaigns enter a new and difficult phase now that the final debate is in their rear view. With Clinton ahead by significant margins in the polls, Democrats have the knives out for down-ballot Republicans.

Complete rubbish.

While there are wave elections (1932, 1980 and 2008 come to mind), this ain't one.

Most people separate their vote for president from the rest of the ballot. Straight-ticket voters like me exist in large quantities, but if I voted for Hillary (oh hell no) I still would vote Republican down ticket -- because Democrats screwed up the state of West Virginia for 82 years ending in 2014, and I refuse to let them back in.

Did Democrat George McGovern kill his party down ticket in 1972 when he lost 49 states?


McGovern collected only 37.5% of the presidential vote, but Democrats collected 52.1% of the House vote. The party lost a net 13 seats in the House, true, but re-districting had much to do with that. Democrats enjoyed a 242-192 majority after the election.

In the Senate, Democrats gained two seats in the Senate.

Did Democrat Fritz Mondale kill his party down ticket in 1984 when he lost 49 states?


Mondale got 40.6% of the presidential vote, but Democrats collected 52.1% of the House vote. They lost 16 seats but still had a 253-182 majority.

In the Senate,  Democrats gained two seats.

Ancient history? In 2012, Republicans lost eight House seats but maintained a 234-201 majority. Democrats kept the Senate. Nothing changed.

McGovern's 23.2-point loss failed to cost his party control of Congress. Ditto Mondale's 18.2-point loss.

But hey, everyone in Washington says Trump will kill the party down ballot so it must be true.

Just like the Nationals winning the World Series this year.


Speaking of the primaries, please read "Trump the Press," a fun romp through the Republican nomination that uses the deadliest weapon to skewer the media experts: their own words. "Trump the Press" is available as a paperback, and on Kindle.


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  2. I think the opposite.
    If you want a straight ticket from the voter you have to be straight with him.
    Trump could win handily and the down ticket could perform poorly because we know that the party hasn't been straight with him or with us.

    1. Ding SIng Sng, give that man a CEEGAR! Lots od us peeved at the rinos. Hate the dims just as much and hope there is a third party candidate who can win.

  3. This year I vote the ticket. BUT, may be the last time I do. My US Repub. Senator endorsed then trashed Trump. Screw him when he comes up for reelection. As far as I can see, he has become a Democrat.

  4. I like Real Clear Politics, but their poll averages are a joke. Of course a bunch of left-wing news organizations will do anything to get Hillary elected, including over-sample Democrats in their stupid polls. Taking an "average" of that gives you a left-skewed result. They want us to just stay home and let the old bag win.

  5. I like Real Clear Politics, but their poll averages are a joke. Of course a bunch of left-wing news organizations will do anything to get Hillary elected, including over-sample Democrats in their stupid polls. Taking an "average" of that gives you a left-skewed result. They want us to just stay home and let the old bag win.

  6. The left just stacks lies on top of lies. The first one is that polls prove Trump doesn't stand a chance. If you swallow that one, then it follows that Democrats will do just great on Hillary's coattails down ballot. As if.

  7. Here in CA, there isn't a "down-ticket" for Senate, as this state has already been taken over by Democrats.

    Not only do they gerrymander the districts, they've passed a "top two primary" law that means that only the highest vote-getters in the primary will be on the final ballot. So here I get to "vote" for either a far-left traitorous corrupt jerk, or the other corrupt traitorous far-left jerk. I have no one to vote for that will represent me, so my vote doesn't matter at all.

    In this particular election, there isn't even a "worse" candidate; they're both abysmal, and neither one will be good for the country.

    This is how the Left wants the whole country to be.

    1. How is that "top two" primary even considered to be constitutional? For that matter, how can any political part consider "open" primaries? They both are in conflict with the ideas of having parties in the first place. And are really great methods for stealing elections. All in all bad things.

    2. Forget it, Jake, it's California. The Dems did it to the people, good and hard.

    3. Dan, here in Colorado there are two ballot amendments to the State Constitution to allow "open" primaries. Just hope that neither passes.

  8. Don,

    I would normally agree with this analysis, but there is a difference between today's race and those of 1972 and 1984- in those last two elections, the Democratic Party didn't openly abandon the top of the ticket.

  9. From what I've seen Trump will help the down ballot candidates. Most of them are embracing him - at least the smart ones. - Elric

  10. The smoke signals clearly say...support Trump or face the consequences. Likeliest outcome for those who don't is that people simply won't check a box in a particular race. Last I heard, that's still legal...

  11. Did you notice that Trump mentioned that Scalia's widow has a Trump sign in her yard during his Gettysburg speech?

  12. The Lefties have really gone over the edge on the issue of Trump and his "troubles", most of which are in the media's mind.

  13. From behind the paywall at Commentary, Noah Rothman writes that "'Rigged' Talk May Bury The GOP."

    Donald Trump’s new claim that the election will be “rigged” against him isn’t new at all, because Trump contends everything is rigged. From the economy, to the nation’s immigration system, to America’s trade deals with foreign powers, to political polling; all are beset by traitors colluding to rob him and his avid supporters of their due. It’s a seductive narrative for a subsection of voters who are inclined to believe a vast conspiracy is the cause of their lot, and it indicates that Donald Trump will be harping on his poisonous theme long after November 8. What will be the effects of Trump’s “rigged” talk over the next two weeks? The indications are that this purely self-destructive notion does Trump no immediate good, and may end up taking a lot of Republicans down with him.

    A new ABC News survey released on Sunday showed that the GOP is losing its interest in the election. Last week’s ABC News/Washington Post poll found a dramatic 12-point drop in enthusiasm to vote among Trump-backing Republicans who supported a different candidate in the primary. “Intended participation now has followed,” read Langer Research’s dispatch. “The share of registered Republicans who are likely to vote is down 7 points since mid-October.”