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Monday, October 31, 2016

Trump up 3 -- nationally

The Los Angeles Times tracking poll has it Trump 46.6, Hillary 43.2 as the polls finally track the fallout from FBI Friday. That 3.4-point lead is his largest in two weeks.

The Los Angeles Times poll is not like the others as it uses a system developed by RAND Corporation. RAND Corporation had the most accurate tracking poll in 2012. It consistently showed Obama up and its final number was a 3.8-point win for Obama, who won by 3.9.

Its explanation:
The USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election "Daybreak" Poll is part of the ongoing Understanding America Study: (UAS) at the University of Southern California’s (USC) Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research, in partnership with the Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics and the Los Angeles Times. Every day, we invite one-seventh of the members of the UAS election panel to answer three predictive questions: What is the percent chance that… (1) you will vote in the presidential election? (2) you will vote for Clinton, Trump, or someone else? and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win? As their answers come in, we update the charts daily (just after midnight) with an average of all of the prior week’s responses. To find out more about what lies behind the vote, each week we also ask respondents one or two extra questions about their preferences and values. The team responsible for the USC Dornsife/LA Times Presidential Election Poll four years ago developed the successful RAND Continuous Presidential Election Poll, which was based on the same methodology.
The FBI investigation Hillary looks like only a small break for Trump. He was up 2.4 on Friday and a 3.4 lead this morning is not a huge increase in his lead.

However, this boosts confidence among Trump supporters, and sows doubt among Hillary's supporters. She is running out of time and avenues to catch up.

The October Surprise by the FBI is prophylactic in that it mutes any counter-surprise by the Clinton Camp. Plus, this is a legitimate surprise that comes from an agency of a government controlled by Clinton's own party.

At any rate, Trump's lead is solidifying in the most accurate poll we have. That is good news for his supporters, and great news for America.


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12 comments:

  1. You might even say that her path is narrowing......

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  2. She better hopes she looses... goo.gl/vwiII8

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  3. Presented for your amusement:
    http://www.nationalreview.com/slideshows/photoshop-day
    So True!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am sorry that I cannot see this. I refuse to give even a single click to the sellouts at National Review.

      Delete
  4. About effect of investigation for emails Hillary looks like only a small break for Trump. He was up 2.4 on Friday and a 3.4 lead this morning is not a huge increase in his lead.
    My comment is that the effect is mitigated cause only 1/7 of the sample has been interviewed. If 1/7 of the sample moved near 1% , 7/7 of the sample will move 7%, down for Hillary.

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  5. About effect of investigation for emails Hillary looks like only a small break for Trump. He was up 2.4 on Friday and a 3.4 lead this morning is not a huge increase in his lead.
    My comment is that the effect is mitigated cause only 1/7 of the sample has been interviewed. If 1/7 of the sample moved near 1% , 7/7 of the sample will move 7%, down for Hillary.

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  6. As Glenn Reynolds likes to say, Don't get cocky, kid. I do think our guy has it but we just need to get our asses out and vote and seal the deal and get America back on the right road...

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  7. It is great news for the polls that they run. Wikileaks is bragging about roadkill this morning in "Phase 3."

    It doesn't matter...we need to each run up the scoreboard in anticipation of the almost certain suicide vest hi jinks. Work harder than ever people. This week it's not MAGA3X...it's MAGA10X.

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  8. He was up 6.7 when the Lefties started whining to the LAT.

    I have a feeling he'll be back there by the weekend.

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  9. That big hand reaching for her ass ain't no groper, it's the long arm of the law.

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  10. Me, I'm waiting for the moment Hillary's eyes start to cross.

    Then we'll know that she's setting things up to cop an insanity plea.

    "And my days are kind of foggy and my nights are dreamy too:
    But they're taking good care of me: committed to Parkview."

    ReplyDelete