They also push polls based on 20th century technology while ignoring the Los Angeles Times poll, which is based on a different approach developed by RAND, which provided the most accurate 2012 forecast. I wrote about this at length on Tuesday.
The Los Angeles Times poll for six months calls the same people over and over again to see how the race is going. That is expensive. The other polls do it on the cheap, randomly call different voters each day, because that is what the textbook says you should do. Who got it right in 2012?
The Los Angeles Times poll has it tied. The rest of the polls have her up by more than six (on average). An incumbent tied this close to the election is in trouble, and make no mistake: Hillary is the incumbent.
Yet the establishment experts
Nate Silver, whose site literally gave Trump no chance last year of wining the nomination, pronounced the race over after Wednesday's debate:
There aren’t really any direct precedents for a candidate coming back from this far down to win an American presidential election, although you can make a few loose analogies. Harry Truman’s comeback over Thomas Dewey in 1948 almost works as a comparison, but Truman wasn’t coming from as far behind as Trump is, and there was much less polling in 1948. Ronald Reagan had a significant late surge against Jimmy Carter in 1980, but he was ahead beforehand — and the surge came in large part because of a debate that occurred just one week before the election, whose impact was too late to be fully reflected in the polls. If Trump was going to have a Reaganesque surge, in other words, it probably would have started with a commanding performance in last night’s debate — and not another loss.
Brexit? Even that comparison doesn’t really work. The final polls showed a toss-up between the United Kingdom leaving the European Union or remaining in it, and “leave” eventually won by 4 points. If the polls were biased against Trump by that much in this election, he’d still lose, by a margin approximating the one by which Mitt Romney lost to President Obama four years ago. The primaries? They’re a reminder that one ought to be humble when making predictions. But the polls pegged Trump just fine — in fact, slightly overestimating his performance in many early states such as Iowa.But of course Nate Silver's analysis is full of what you feed mushrooms. The Brexit polls three weeks before the vote showed Remain way ahead.
That is what matters, not the day before the election -- and even then they were off because it was not a tie on election day, but a four-point victory.
Now he sprinkled his prediction with "probably" and will use his night-before-the-election forecast as his final analysis. But when Trump wins, I will remind him of this column.
And Trump is winning. Hillary thinks she is well ahead, and is playing prevent defense. Trump is making The Drive. He took it to her at the Al Smith dinner, eschewing comity.
DONALD TRUMP: Even tonight with all of the heated back and forth between my opponent and me at the debate last night we have proven that we can actually be civil to each other.
In fact, just before taking the dais Hillary accidentally bumped into me and she very civilly said, 'Pardon me.'
[HILLARY CLINTON LAUGHS, CLAPS]
DONALD TRUMP: And I very politely replied, 'Let me talk to you about that after I get into office.'Bang.
You think Jebbio McCruzney would have said anything like that? If so, email me. I have money I need your help in moving from Nigeria.
Americans want to be great, and they want to back someone who will fight for them. They do not want to be with her. They want him to be with them.
The media are throwing the kitchen sink at him.
Just like they did during the primaries.
Speaking of the primaries, please read "Trump the Press," a fun romp through the Republican nomination that uses the deadliest weapon to skewer the media experts: their own words. "Trump the Press" is available as a paperback, and on Kindle.