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Friday, October 21, 2016

They think we're mushrooms

The media thinks the American people are mushrooms. They try to keep us in the dark and feed us bullshit. Instead of reporting the news in this presidential campaign, they report a string of nontroversies.

They also push polls based on 20th century technology while ignoring the Los Angeles Times poll, which is based on a different approach developed by RAND, which provided the most accurate 2012 forecast. I wrote about this at length on Tuesday.

The Los Angeles Times poll for six months calls the same people over and over again to see how the race is going. That is expensive. The other polls do it on the cheap, randomly call different voters each day, because that is what the textbook says you should do. Who got it right in 2012?

The Los Angeles Times poll has it tied. The rest of the polls have her up by more than six (on average). An incumbent tied this close to the election is in trouble, and make no mistake: Hillary is the incumbent.

Yet the establishment experts

Nate Silver, whose site literally gave Trump no chance last year of wining the nomination, pronounced the race over after Wednesday's debate:
There aren’t really any direct precedents for a candidate coming back from this far down to win an American presidential election, although you can make a few loose analogies. Harry Truman’s comeback over Thomas Dewey in 1948 almost works as a comparison, but Truman wasn’t coming from as far behind as Trump is, and there was much less polling in 1948. Ronald Reagan had a significant late surge against Jimmy Carter in 1980, but he was ahead beforehand — and the surge came in large part because of a debate that occurred just one week before the election, whose impact was too late to be fully reflected in the polls. If Trump was going to have a Reaganesque surge, in other words, it probably would have started with a commanding performance in last night’s debate — and not another loss.
Brexit? Even that comparison doesn’t really work. The final polls showed a toss-up between the United Kingdom leaving the European Union or remaining in it, and “leave” eventually won by 4 points. If the polls were biased against Trump by that much in this election, he’d still lose, by a margin approximating the one by which Mitt Romney lost to President Obama four years ago. The primaries? They’re a reminder that one ought to be humble when making predictions. But the polls pegged Trump just fine — in fact, slightly overestimating his performance in many early states such as Iowa.
But of course Nate Silver's analysis is full of what you feed mushrooms. The Brexit polls three weeks before the vote showed Remain way ahead.

That is what matters, not the day before the election -- and even then they were off because it was not a tie on election day, but a four-point victory.

Now he sprinkled his prediction with "probably" and will use his night-before-the-election forecast as his final analysis. But when Trump wins, I will remind him of this column.

And Trump is winning. Hillary thinks she is well ahead, and is playing prevent defense. Trump is making The Drive. He took it to her at the Al Smith dinner, eschewing comity.
DONALD TRUMP: Even tonight with all of the heated back and forth between my opponent and me at the debate last night we have proven that we can actually be civil to each other.
In fact, just before taking the dais Hillary accidentally bumped into me and she very civilly said, 'Pardon me.'
[LAUGHTER]
[HILLARY CLINTON LAUGHS, CLAPS]
DONALD TRUMP: And I very politely replied, 'Let me talk to you about that after I get into office.'
Bang.

You think Jebbio McCruzney would have said anything like that? If so, email me. I have money I need your help in moving from Nigeria.

Americans want to be great, and they want to back someone who will fight for them. They do not want to be with her. They want him to be with them.

The media are throwing the kitchen sink at him.

Just like they did during the primaries.

@@@

Speaking of the primaries, please read "Trump the Press," a fun romp through the Republican nomination that uses the deadliest weapon to skewer the media experts: their own words. "Trump the Press" is available as a paperback, and on Kindle.

32 comments:

  1. I was called last night by Gallup. After a couple of unimportant questions she asked, "What is your age?" After I said I was 77 she said that they were only interested in the opinions of younger people and that ended the call. Is that true of all polls? Old folks like me are the most likely to vote. I told a number of friends about this and they all said basically the same thing. After rejecting me because of my age I should have immediately told her to "kiss my ...."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You might find the pollsters have a requirement of equal numbers of all age groups. Older folks, once they start a poll, generally figure they may as well finish it, whereas a lot of youngsters are keen to start, but soon begin going "This is like soooo fifteen minutes ago", and hang up before the poll questions are finished.

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    2. Why would you answer any pollster's questions?

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    3. A few years back, there was a period of time when I was getting as many calls from poll takers as from "Dave" at the fake "Windows Service Center" in Bangalore. I would tell the pollsters my price for a random telephone survey was $250. Click. That's as fast as saying "I don't do no polls."

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    4. Toby, to LIE to them, outrageously, as an LGBTQRSTUV for Hillary in SPITE of her decrepitude because you just HATE those cis-gender Secret Service guys.

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    5. Yes, lie throw them off."29" year old,
      Democrat, metrosexual .
      Not Eastern Oregon redneck- 60+ both
      Hatfield and McCoy...
      TG McCoy
      I don't wear pajamas either...

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    6. When I studied politics in college about a hundred years ago, we learned that older voters are much more apt to vote than younger ones. I suspect that is still true most of the time. This would be another way of oversampling Democrats.

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  2. It would do those clowns who think they're journalists a world of good to crank up Tina's contralto on the stereo and actually consider how the words might apply to Mr and Ms America's perception of their product. Then their newspaper's revenues, the ones that pay their wages, might pull out of the flat spiral dive they're locked into.

    "So let me see your cards on the table
    Before I buy
    I always read the writing on the label
    So give me reason to believe there's more to you than meets the eye"

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  3. How quickly Hillary's Drang Nach Osten is going to peter out when the voters go all Operation Uranus on her on Election Day.

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  4. On one of the suveymonkey polls after the debate I described myself as a woman in her twenties with a postgraduate degree who was voting for Trump.

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    1. For all that it might increase your ingenuity in answering the poll questions, I trust that you don't assume the yuppie pantsuit outfit while filling out the form.

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  5. Silver's been spending most of his time since Frumpty swooned on 9/11 telling pollsters how they need to skew their surveys to keep all the hipsters from losing heart.

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  6. https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/10/21/dinesh-dsouza-discusses-morality-intentions-and-consequences-for-the-presidential-election/

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  7. Big D, that lead off made me leap to my feet and yell YEAH!!!

    The Libs are in full panic mode. We need to stay calm, keep walkin the swag, and just be like, heck yeah, Trump's gonna be our next President.

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  8. Video: D'Souza Has A Word For Christians Not Voting This November

    http://commoncts.blogspot.com/2016/10/video-dsouza-has-word-for-christians.html

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  9. It's a conspiracy,that is for sure. Donald spits out bull and the MSM report it. Donald, the misogynist, hits on women and the media reports it.

    Please - FiveThirtyEight is entitled to an opinion just as the biased Surber Blog is entitled and the fact is that all the polls in the country add up to Hillary being in the lead. Nobody knows anything for sure but the LA Times poll, which puts everything in the hands a small number of people, has no winner projected and Nate Silver, who also called the last election correctly shows the odds to be astronomically long against Trump, as do the Vegas odds.

    Do Trump Supporters really beleive that accusations will change facts?

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    Replies
    1. The biggest fact is that you are deluding yourself into thinking that you are doing a service to the country by supporting the lesbian hag.

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    2. Nope. Considering what The Donald's been accused of.

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    3. Why did two of Hillary's minions resign when caught by O'Keffe on film promoting
      violence? Wikileaks has shown that they are screwing the electorate big time.
      Oh I forgot I should not mention that because according to CNN -my eyesballs might grow hair or something...
      Screw'em back..
      TG

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    4. Do you really think that ignoring Hillary's lies & felonies plus the MSM's lies, will change reality? Hillary ain't winnin' nothin'. The MSM are trying their best to help her steal the election.

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  10. And on a more serious note, let me introduce y'all to your alt-right buddies. Read this.

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    Replies
    1. Sorry. We non-alcoholics don't go slumming around at NR any more.

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    2. Hell, troll, your lefty buddies hold marches chanting for the murder of cops. I wouldn't be surprised if you were one of them.

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    3. The "alt-right" is a new favorite boogey-man for the left. And, I have the say, NR is no longer a trusted source for me.

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    4. what about the KKK of the left? BLM
      encourages violence to Police? Up 55%
      this year..
      Soros funds all of this,-Europe is being flooded with "Children" that are young military age males-jihadis. and Hillary wants to do that here...
      Helluva lot more important than a cartoon frog...

      Delete
  11. I really like your post. Thanks so lot for your convene. I’m very fired up to show it to anyone. Thanks so much with this fantastic this post.

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  12. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    1. When pollsters call they always, & immediately, announce that the call may be recorded. When they shut up long enough for me to speak, I tell them I am recording the call. I'm also going to begin incorporating the idea above that my charge for polls is $250.

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  13. The Atlanta Urinal And Constipation wrote in this morning's paper that according to their poll the race is A DEAD HEAT IN GEORGIA! This is the same poll that had Michelle Nunn and Jason Carter tied in their respective races two years ago. Both got clobbered. The last Dimocrat to win Georgia's electoral votes was BJ in 1992. Four years later Georgians wised up to the molester. The AJC has been all in for Crooked Cankles since she announced. They have been printing anti-Trump articles all year.

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