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Monday, October 31, 2016

NYT: Trump up 4 in Florida

In a poll taken before FBI Friday, the New York Times found Trump up by four in Florida, a state Obama carried in 2008 and 2012.

How big is this for Trump?

The newspaper immediately disowned its own poll, reporting:
The survey is Mr. Trump’s best recent poll in Florida, and it should be interpreted with caution. In general, it is best to look at an average of polls. Mrs. Clinton still leads in an average of recent Florida surveys by nearly three points.
Florida is a must win for Trump. Given the throngs that show up at his rallies, I would say he is.

In reporting the poll, which it calls the Upshot/Siena University poll, the New York Times divided white people among men and women and by education credentials, something it failed to do among blacks or Hispanics. This is how the media denigrates Trump voters. It reported:
Mrs. Clinton has had nearly unanimous support among black voters in Upshot/Siena surveys, but not in this one: She had a lead of 81 percent to 11 percent. It might not seem like a big deal, but the difference between that support and the 90-1 we saw from black voters in Pennsylvania covers about half of Mr. Trump’s lead.
If Trump carries 11 or 12 percent of the black vote nationally, he will have doubled Romney's market share. That would spell trouble for Hillary.

And there was this:
Our first Upshot/Siena poll of Florida in September gave Mrs. Clinton a lead of 83 percent to 4 percent among black voters, which was her worst performance among black voters in any of the Upshot’s polls up until now.
The Hispanic vote in Florida tilts conservative Republican because of a large contingency of Cuban refugees. Trump has the endorsement of the Bay of Pigs veterans association, its first ever endorsement. Obama's unilateral end of the Cuban embargo likely triggered that. Trump also courted Haitians (a non-Hispanic community) whose homeland was ripped off by the Clinton Foundation.

I have told readers they are not alone in supporting Trump and that he has momentum. That was before FBI Friday.

There will be a November Surprise against Trump next week. Vote early. Stay the course. That November Surprise will be a load of crap because if it were any good, they would have released it by now. She held nothing back, and now must manufacture a Trump scandal.

Perhaps that is what drove her to drink Sunday morning.


Please read "Trump the Press," a fun romp through the Republican nomination that uses the deadliest weapon to skewer the media experts: their own words. "Trump the Press" is available as a paperback, and on Kindle.


  1. So, do you think she'll accuse Trump of being a Surf Nazi, or one of the variety from the Iron Sky moonbase?

  2. So far the Republicans have a 20,000 lead in early voting in Fla.

  3. Perhaps a fake genealogical chart back to Adolf himself!

  4. Now the real numbers will start coming out again so they can try (unsuccessfully) to salvage a little credibility.