The abstract of his paper, "History and Primary: The Obama Re-Election":
President Barack Obama is going to defeat Republican challenger Mitt Romney by a comfortable margin. Obama has history on his side as well as the fact that he was unchallenged in the primaries. The PRIMARY MODEL, which formalizes these predictors, forecasts an Obama victory with 53.2 percent of the two-party popular vote. This forecast assures Obama’s re-election with 88-percent certainty. The forecast model relies on primary elections as well as an electoral cycle, using elections as far back as 1912, the first year of presidential primaries. The primary performance of the incumbent-party candidate and that of the opposition-party candidate enter as separate predictors. For elections since 1952, the primary-support measure relies solely on the New Hampshire primary. In the period since then, no other primary beats New Hampshire in predictive power. The Primary-Model forecast was posted January 12, 2012, on the Huffington Post.That was then, this is now, courtesy of the Daily Mail:
Norpoth's model, which has been correct since it was first used in 1996, has Donald Trump winning on Nov. 8 with an 87 percent degree of certainty.
Based on Trump's and Clinton's performances in their party primaries, The Primary Model projects that the Republican businessman will beat the former secretary of state with 52.5% to her 47.5% of the two-party vote.
His assertion flies in the face of FiveThirtyEight's election forecast, which is rooted in polling and says there's an 86.6 percent likelihood that Clinton will win. Trump has a 13.4 percent chance of pulling it off on the Nate Silver-helmed site.Ah yes, Nate Silver's site, which said on the day Trump announced:
Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another Home Alone movie with Macaulay Culkin—or playing in the NBA Finals—than winning the Republican nomination.I love that quote and used it as the epigraph of my book, "Trump the Press," although he could have had a better series than Stephen Curry.
More from Professor Norpoth in a column in the Hill:
Virtually all the opinion polls right now give Hillary Clinton a firm lead over Donald Trump in the race for the White House this November. The latest poll average compiled by RealClearPolitics puts her at least five points ahead of Trump, with or without Gary Johnson and Jill Stein included as choices; the Huffington Post Pollster projects a better than 99-percent chance that “Clinton is very likely leading;” and Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight gives her an 85 percent chance of winning.
It looks like the race is decided.
But that was the same sentiment that led the major pollsters 68 years ago to stop polling several weeks before the 1948 election. Tom Dewey’s lead was so firm and consistent that there was no way Harry Truman would be able to win. At least, so it seemed. The man from Missouri did win, of course, thrust to victory by a late surge of votes sparked by his whistle-stop campaign.Truman won.
Election-day exit polls quiz citizens who just turned out to vote, asking them to mark their vote one more time on a two-page questionnaire. This happens minutes after someone cast a vote, so there is no reason to worry that voters don’t remember how they voted; also, since they are filling out a form, voters need not directly express their decision to the poll-taker.
With a properly drawn random sample, such an exit poll should hit the result of the election like a hammer on the head of a nail. But that didn’t happen in the 2004 presidential election. At the end of a full day of exit-polling, the final tally of the national electorate showed Kerry beating Bush by 51 to 48. It was a safe lead, way beyond statistical shadows of doubt, given the large number of voters in the poll (over 10,000). But of course, Bush was re-elected that day.And this:
In the most recent presidential election, Gallup’s final estimate of likely voters, issued on the eve of Election Day in 2012, projected Mitt Romney as the winner. A day later, Obama was the winner by nearly 4 percentage points.
Soon after this debacle the Gallup Organization, the inventor of scientific polling in the 1930’s, fell on its sword and quit the election horse-race business altogether. Rasmussen got it wrong in 2012 as well, but they opted to stay in the business.
But in all fairness to those polling giants, they weren’t alone. Three pollsters wimped out, projecting a tied vote, and of the four remaining polls on the RealClearPolitics summary, only two predicted an Obama victory, and those two did so with minimal confidence.But we shall see, shan't we?
Another Home Alone movie is possible.
Like the Home Alone quote? Then you will love my new book, "Trump the Press." It is a fun romp through the Republican nomination that uses the deadliest weapon to skewer the media experts: their own words. "Trump the Press" is available as a paperback, and on Kindle.