From the Washington Post on October 16:
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton faces a striking choice in the final three weeks of the campaign: to expand her efforts to states that Democrats haven’t won in a generation, or to stay a current course that, if conditions hold, would deliver her a resounding electoral college victory.
After two tumultuous weeks focused on Donald Trump’s behavior toward women, Clinton is ahead in nearly all of the key battleground states where her campaign has directed the most resources, according to many recent polls. But some once-solidly Republican states — notably Arizona, Georgia and Utah — now also appear to be in play.
Clinton aides said they see advantages to running up the score in the electoral college, where 270 votes wins the White House. Victories in unexpected places could boost that total, handing her more of a mandate come January and decreasing the potency of Trump’s complaints of a “rigged” election.
But victories in core battleground states such as Pennsylvania and New Hampshire would almost assuredly cut off Trump’s path as well. Those states are also home to key down-ballot races that will determine control of the Senate, an important factor in how much support Clinton would have while launching an agenda in January.
“It’s true more and more states are emerging as truly competitive,” Clinton spokesman Brian Fallon said. “We are closely following the situations in those states even as we refuse to take anything for granted in the core battlegrounds, which also happen to be the sites of some of the biggest Senate races.”And there was this report:
No candidate in recorded history has overcome Trump’s poll deficit this late
The polls are coming fast and furious right now, and they're increasingly bad for Donald Trump. In fact, we can now say this: Were Trump to actually win, it would represent the biggest late comeback in the history of presidential polls.Polling history goes back 80 years. More from the same story:
If there's any ray of hope in all of this for Trump, it's that presidential candidates have swung races by double digits between their worst October poll and Election Day. And Reagan wound up winning by 10 points, so he swung the race by 16 points from mid-October.
But even those swings are from a candidate's worst poll — not the average of polling. Five Thirty Eight's Harry Enten a few days back came at this question a different way, comparing polling averages to the final results. He found the biggest shift was actually in 1992, when mid-October polling averaged an 8.5-point bigger Bill Clinton lead than the final result showed. But that's still not as big as Trump's current 8.9-point deficit, and it wasn't enough to swing that race.
It all suggests a Trump recovery is at least theoretically possible. But these examples all happened during a time when our country was much less polarized. And they involved Truman — an incumbent, with all the advantages of the office — and Reagan, who was Reagan.Visions danced in their heads of the restoration of the House of Clinton to the throne. After all, the Washington Post was merely repeating what Team Clinton told them.
And on October 20, Jennifer Rubin wrote: "Trump’s inner circle knows he has lost."
Not that Jennifer Rubin actually talked to anyone in the inner circle. She just knew because she knows everything.
And on Monday, there was this:
Hillary Clinton has a 12-point advantage over Donald Trump, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll.
The poll, released Sunday, shows Clinton in the lead with 50 percent, compared to Trump's 38.She should be going to prison instead of the White House. But the system is rigged. The FBI gave Clinton a pass on numerous counts of violating national security laws.
However, that pass expired on Friday afternoon. Anthony Weiner facing 15 years in prison for texting a 15-year-old is spilling his guts. The fat lady ain't singing, but the skinny horndog is.
Jake Novak at CNBC wrote:
In any other election, the horrible things Trump said on that "Access Hollywood" tape would indeed result in a 20-point lead or more for Clinton. But they didn't, and that tells you so much about how much more vulnerable Clinton is to bad publicity than Trump ever is. This email probe news provides a lot of Americans very uneasy about voting for Trump, and saying so publicly, the perfect "surprise" excuse for voting for a guy so many of their friends and family personally detest.
Of course, this still doesn't mean this election is over. I received dozens of emails and messages from Trump supporters in the minutes after the investigation news broke telling me that Trump had the race "in the bag" now. Not quite. There are still those eleven days to go, for one thing. And there's also the chance that Trump or Clinton could somehow be dealt a new public perception card that's worse or better than what they have now.
But Trump's apparent vulgarity is now no longer even close to the biggest story in this election, and Clinton's perceived-by-many criminal image is. That's not the hand Clinton wants to be holding now that the chips are down and the voters are about to call.I will take vulgar over criminal any day of the week.
I trust I am in the majority. The Los Angeles Times poll this morning had Trump up 2.4 percent, his biggest lead in three weeks. The American people may serve her the justice the Department of Justice refused to serve.
Or as Alexandra Petri of the Washington Post wrote last night:
This. Cannot. Be. Happening.
Please read "Trump the Press," a fun romp through the Republican nomination that uses the deadliest weapon to skewer the media experts: their own words. "Trump the Press" is available as a paperback, and on Kindle.