Readers may recall that on Wednesday I noticed a 4-point drop in Hillary's lead in the ABC tracking poll. The next day it dropped another two points. Then it dropped to 4 and now it is at a two-point lead for Hillary. That is a ten-point drop in four days -- before Friday's news.
The Baghdad Bobs at ABC said:
From a 50-38 percent Clinton lead over Donald Trump in the tracking poll’s first four days, Oct. 20-23, it’s a 47-45 percent contest in the latest results. The movement has been in Trump’s favor, +7, while the -3 in Clinton’s support is not significant, given the sample size.Of course, when ABC said she had a 12-point lead, the poll was significant. Now ABC News wants readers to believe it is paying for an insignificant poll
The ABC poll shows a volatility that should not be there this close to Election Day.
ABC's poll is a four-day tracking poll, which adds the latest daily poll and drops the oldest poll. This week's daily reports showed a movement for Trump that is either self-correcting, actual, or plainly non-existent.
On Sunday, which reported results on the four days ending last Saturday, she had a 12-point lead, which means on the four days ended Sunday, she had a cumulative daily lead of 12 (48). Ditto Monday.
But on Tuesday, her lead was cut to eight points (32 cumulative), which means the difference between the new day (Monday) and the dropped day in the survey was 16. For simplicity's sake, let's make that dropped number 12, which would mean Trump had a four-point lead in the latest day (Monday).
The next report showed a six-point (24 cumulative). This meant -- and I am being simple here -- she had leads of 12, 12, -4, and 4.
The next report showed a four-point lead (16) which meant she did 12, -4, 4, 4.
The latest report covering Monday through Thursday, inclusive, showed a two-point lead (eight cumulative lead) which means after losing to Trump by four on Monday, she had runs of four-point leads for three days in a row.
Then came Comey.
So in a week you drop ten points in the polls.
And then the FBI re-opens a criminal investigation of your work as secretary of State. Donna Brazile, the chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee who leaked "debate" questions to Hillary, to the New York Times, “This is like an 18-wheeler smacking into us, and it just becomes a huge distraction at the worst possible time.”
Hillary henchman John Podesta told the same newspaper: “By providing selective information, he has allowed partisans to distort and exaggerate to inflict maximum political damage.”
Funny how Podesta did not complain in June when Comey inexplicably decided against prosecution.
At any rate, she is cratering in polls that showed her the big lead she wanted to project.
Please read "Trump the Press," a fun romp through the Republican nomination that uses the deadliest weapon to skewer the media experts: their own words. "Trump the Press" is available as a paperback, and on Kindle.