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Thursday, October 27, 2016

Clinton leads by 12, no 8, no 6

ABC News received much attention after its poll on Monday showed Clinton ahead by 12. Not so much attention when the next day's poll showed her ahead by 8. And now that she's ahead by 6, the headline at ABC is:
Slight Shifts in Intention Aid Trump, Amid Anxiety About Both Candidates (POLL)
Don't know what the story will be tomorrow. Maybe ABC just won't post its results. The polls aren't rigged. They're wrong. 


  1. Rigged? Maybe not. Objective? Not by a long shot.
    Can't help thinking about the observation effect in physics. The idea being that you may be able to see something but know nothing about where it's going or know where it's going but yet unable to see it.

  2. Rigged? Quite possibly: they have been inflating Clinton's numbers, but now with the "handwriting on the wall" as it becomes that Trump may well win, they are incrementally closing the gap to maintain their "Credibility".

  3. Trump rises as the Beast fades.

    At the right time, too.

  4. IMHO if the pollsters are using the 2012 election as a template for voter turn out and preferences by party or demographic then they are way off base. This will be a transformative election because the electorate is "as mad as hell and not gonna take anymore".

  5. The story will be different, with a new (and IMPROVED!!!!!!) narrative.

  6. Some polls I heard today are Trump has 20% of the black vote. If that is true, hillary IS toast. The dems NEED in excess of 90% of the black vote to win. I guess some blacks are beginning to see that the dems actually want them on the "plantation."

  7. The pollsters are oversampling Dimocrats. They are also doing push polling to try to discourage Trump supporters.

  8. One big problem with polling methodology that seems plainly obvious to me, is using turnout numbers from previous elections to arrange sampling numbers now. This ignores the fact that some politicians (Obama, Reagan, Trump) drive large turnout due to force of personality, especially considering that Hillary has such large "dislike" numbers and has for years. One cannot blithely assume that those D numbers are just going to stay up in that range, by default. Most people vote for candidates, not parties, I would suspect.