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Monday, October 31, 2016

Charlie Cook predicts a Hillaryian landslide

Charlie Cook, proprietor of the Cook Political Report, learned nothing from the Republican nomination process. He and his staff wrote Trump off as a crank -- even after Trump won New Hampshire.

From my book, "Trump the Press":
“I still see Trump as more of a protest candidate, a vehicle for the angry, anti-establishment mood among many Republicans, rather than someone who many Republicans will see as a realistic president. It should be remembered that Trump’s 34 percent New Hampshire performance means that 66 percent of Republicans did not vote for him,” Cook wrote.
We all make mistakes. That does not make us fools. Not learning from those mistakes does.

On Friday, Cook published, "You’ll Likely Be Reading One Of These 5 Articles The Day After The Election."

The first four forecast Hillary wins. The last one was "Trump shocks the world," in which the billionaire barely nudged out a 294-244 win in the Electoral College.

My favorite prediction was the first one:
In a staggering rejection of GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump, voters last night elected Hillary Clinton as the nation’s first female president, 53 percent to 41 percent — the widest margin in a presidential race since 1984. Clinton swept 30 states totaling 413 electoral votes. In an exclamation point, Clinton carried Arizona, Georgia and even Texas. Repudiating Trump, Utah gave its six electoral votes to conservative independent Evan McMullin. 
Clinton’s landslide was fueled by record Democratic support among whites with a college degree, particularly women, as well as heightened turnout from Latino and Asian voters. Clinton won whites with a college degree by 10 percentage points, a huge turnaround from 2012, when Mitt Romney won them by 10 points. Black turnout and support remained steady from 2012, despite fears among Clinton backers that African-American enthusiasm would lag without President Obama on the ballot.
Turnout among Latinos surged from 47 percent to 57 percent, and Clinton won them by a massive 58 points, allowing Clinton to shock Trump in the Lone Star State. After plenty of hype, there was no uptick in turnout or support for Trump among whites without a college degree; he won them by about the same margin as Mitt Romney did. Moreover, support for third-party candidates was just 6 percent, lower than many pre-election polls had predicted. 
Down ballot, Democrats swept all seven Senate races rated as “toss-ups” by the Cook Political Report, earning a 54 to 46 majority and even defeating Marco Rubio in Florida. They came within five seats of retaking the House, throwing Paul Ryan’s future as speaker into doubt. The magnitude of Clinton’s victory forced Republicans to re-evaluate their long-term national viability: Calling Trump a “cancer on conservatism,” GOP leaders vowed to purge Trump from the party — though it’s unclear they can. 
Now for the punchline: The article originally was posted at Five Thirty Eight.

I devoted an entire chapter to Nate Silver in the book. Slow learner.

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Please read "Trump the Press," a fun romp through the Republican nomination that uses the deadliest weapon to skewer the media experts: their own words. "Trump the Press" is available as a paperback, and on Kindle.

9 comments:

  1. Nate Silver, Now With MORE Tarnish.

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  2. Well, you know, Democrats, having made common cause with their Wisconsin fellows a few years back, are known for not accepting the outcome of elections. Now, there is this new information with all those early voters already locked in, supposedly they are majority for Hillary. So, what are the odds, those disillusioned Democrats demand a recall if Hillary wins? if Trump wins?

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  3. Mr. Cook is striving for relevancy - and failing. - Elric

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  4. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  5. A little bird seems to be telling me that someone is bucking for star billing in Don's next book.

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  6. The same Nate that buckled to the far left over global warming after he allowed Pielke Jr to do a post (it was supposed to be a weekly column)?

    What a twerp!

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  7. At this point, he has less relevancy than the chipmunk, Chipper, on my deck. Look, Dude, the world has changed fast and hard (and bad) the last eight years. If your view of things has still not changed, then drive out and get yourself a pizza. Oh shit. That place closed?! Sorry Charlie...

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  8. Must work on the double-blind polling system.

    That's where both pollster and polled are three sheets to the wind.

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