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Friday, October 28, 2016

Breaking Trump

My rule about polls is simple: They are all wrong and you should cherry-pick the ones that agree with you. It is sort of like nutrition studies. If you like coffee, cite the studies that say coffee is good for you. If you don't, cite the studies that say coffee is bad for you.

And so I cite the Los Angeles Times poll (Trump up 2), Rasmussen (tied), and Gravis (Trump down 1).

That last one is particularly good because it is a Registered Voter poll, and RVs generally poll better for Democrats by three to six points.

The polls are breaking in Trump's favor because he is becoming safe. Many people who will vote for Trump parked their votes behind Gary Johnson (and Hillary voters sought cover with Jill Stein) because Trump (and Clinton) failed to be safe. It is like the 1980 election, in that people needed proof that a President Reagan would not blow up the world. He proved that in the final debate.

Trump has yet to close the deal. But he is closing.

From Breitbart, which commissioned the Gravis poll:
Doug Kaplan, managing partner at Gravis Marketing, joined SiriusXM host Alex Marlow on Friday’s Breitbart News Daily to break down the latest Breitbart News/Gravis presidential poll, which showed a statistical tie between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, brought about, in part, by Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson’s voters breaking for Trump.
Also there was this:
Kaplan attributed this movement to Trump picking up independents and Gary Johnson’s voters “going towards Trump. Also, he said he could see Trump “consolidating the Republican base more, where he’s getting 90 percent instead of 80 percent, so he’s closing the gap, for sure.”
“It’s been better news cycles for him over the last week, since the debate,” he added. “A lot of the bad news, with the women and tape and all that, it’s been out there for almost a month, which is probably good for him because now … the focus is more about WikiLeaks or Podesta’s emails, the Clinton Foundation, and those are all great issues for him. I think that that’s why the Republican base is now going from 80 percent for him to 90 percent for him, and that’s why you see the race much closer.”
Meanwhile, Nate Silver at 538 continues to give Hillary a better than four-in-five chance of winning.

He puts her lead at just under six points, and has her winning Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina. Yesterday he said Arizona was Clinton Country.

We shall see.

But on Election Day, I will grade Nate Silver not on what he predicted the night before -- which is easy money -- but when he predicted a Clinton Landslide on October 17, three weeks out. He gave her an 88 percent chance. 346 to 192 in the Electoral College.

If he hits, fine. If he misses, well he missed in the nomination process saying as late as April that Trump had a 10 percent chance of winning the nomination on the first ballot, after which delegates likely would back someone else.


Nate Silver gets a chapter all his own in "Trump the Press," a fun romp through the Republican nomination that uses the deadliest weapon to skewer the media experts: their own words. "Trump the Press" is available as a paperback, and on Kindle.


  1. Some R.V.s pack more of a wallop than others.

    The EM-50 Urban Assault Vehicle springs to mind.

    1. Ziskey and the girls became Armor legends in it.

  2. Nate Silver Tarnished: Another fine chapter!

  3. On the matter of Trump becoming safe, I reckon the Democrat-media conspiracy is desensitising the electorate to his supposed bimbo eruptions. A few solitary doozies right at the last moment might... MIGHT have shifted votes, but the media shills just couldn't help themselves. In order to impress their mistress, the Wicked Witch of the East, they've wasted all their ammunition against a target still too far away. Now, the public just yawns, and goes "yeah, but what's the bottom line FOR ME?"

    A Trump Presidency is going to leave a lot of media personalities looking cut-off and friendless, much like ISIS in Mosul.

  4. You know what would be a REAL interesting poll?

    To know how the members of the Trump and Clinton personal Secret Service details are going to vote.

    1. I suspect I already know. And it won't be any kind of split decision, either.

  5. I hope fervently that the latest FBI announcement about Hilary's email revelations will finish her campaign off.

  6. The Beast's obsession with Russia probably has something to do with it and her vision is warmed-over Lefty, but I think the big thing is people tired of the Ozark soap opera 16 years ago and they're that much more tired today.

  7. Don, your buddy, Nate Silver, has some advice.

    Aggregating mechanisms like polling averages and betting markets are powerful precisely because they reflect a diverse array of approaches and opinions, and they lose their power when they’re subject to herding or groupthink. You also shouldn’t cherry-pick the two or three polls that fit your narrative when there are dozens of them out there, of course. But ignoring or “debunking” the polls you don’t like is often almost as bad a sin as cherry-picking the ones you do like.

    As they say in Huntington, there is some "thunderous herding" going on out there.

  8. gadfly is in mourning over the sudden death of his candidate's campaign. When Nate Silver is quoted, obviously as a desperate last resort, you know the funeral procession is forming behind the hearse. Let the dirge commence.