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Sunday, October 02, 2016

AP poll finds third party "supporters" aren't

Those pols that show Gary Johnson and Jill Stein combining for eleven percent of the vote need an asterisk more than Roger Maris's home run record (the 4th anniversary of No. 61 in 1961 was yesterday).

Two-thirds of those third-party supporters say they still may change their minds.

From the Associated Press:
A shift in their support toward either of the major party nominees — away from Libertarian Gary Johnson, Jill Stein of the Green Party or another third party candidate — could drastically change the shape of the race.
A recent Associated Press-GfK poll found that nearly 7 in 10 third-party supporters say they could still change their minds.
They are about evenly split between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump if forced to choose between just those two. Nearly one-third refused to pick or said they would just not vote if it came down to that.
Margaret Bonnem, a stay-at-home mother in Colliersville, Tennessee, had previously supported Stein. But now she says she'll vote for Clinton because she realizes that "a third party candidate can't really do anything but pull votes away" from the major parties.
"I can't vote for Trump, and I don't want him to benefit from me voting for someone else," said Bonnem, 54. "So I'll end up voting for someone I don't fully trust."
The poll, conducted before last Monday night's first presidential debate, also shows signs that many third party backers would rather vote for no one than throw their support either to Trump or Clinton.
My take is most Johnson supporters are waiting for Trump to convince them he is safe to vote for.

Trump has about a month to convince them.


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  1. Well, if the poll was taken before the debate and "most Johnson supporters really are waiting for Trump to convince them he is safe to vote for", The Donald may have already accomplished that.

    The people scoring for points may have given it to Frumpty, but the people looking for who came off best in the what-they-need-to-show-the-home-folks department don't think she made it. She had to make people like her.

    All Trump had to do was show up and keep his cool.

    In any case, Johnson has shot himself in the head so many times, his candidacy is done and anybody voting for Stein would never look at anybody with an R next to their name.

  2. I think it very, very likely that combined, Stein and Johnson get less than 3% of the vote. To my mind, that means the winner of the popular vote will need to reach 48.5% of the vote. My rule of thumb has always been this (and, no, I didn't originate it)- if the incumbent is consistently polling under the number needed to win, he/she will lose. To date, even if you gave Clinton all of Stein's support, she consistently polls under 48%.

    My prediction has been this: Trump 49%, Clinton 47%, Johnson 2%, Stein and others 2%

  3. And I will remind people- in 2012, Obama consistently polled over 48%, and usually was just over the 50% mark- a mark Romney never really crossed. In other words, Obama never needed the undecided vote to break his way, and it didn't according to the polls, but it wasn't enough for Romney to win.

  4. I think you're correct in your assessment. I'm a conservative Libertarian and, therefore, not thrilled with Johnson. Of course, I'm not thrilled with any of the candidates. However, there are many that still would swing Trump if it was what was necessary to keep Hillary out. Not a ringing endorsement, sure, but a reluctant vote counts the same as an enthusiastic vote.

    The #NeverTrump crowd worries me, though. A number of them are breaking for Clinton. Most of them are Bush Republicans. It would be worthwhile for Trump to reach out to the Bush family and make nice. If Cruz and Trump can stop fighting, so can the Bush clan and Trump.