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Tuesday, September 13, 2016

What happened to her landslide?

On August 17, Real Clear Politics declared Hillary had clinched enough states to win the Electoral College vote 272-154 with 112 undecided. That was the day the political web site flipped Michigan from a tossup to "leans Clinton."

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight Politics pounced.

Trump is a significant underdog — he has a 13 percent chance of winning the election according to our polls-only model and a 23 percent chance according to polls-plus. But those probabilities aren’t that small. For comparison, you have a 17 percent chance of losing a “game” of Russian roulette.
But there’s another possibility staring us right in the face: A potential Hillary Clinton landslide. Our polls-only model projects Clinton to win the election by 7.7 percentage points, about the same margin by which Barack Obama beat John McCain in 2008. And it assigns a 35 percent chance to Clinton winning by double digits.
So Clinton had twice the chance of winning by a landslide than Trump had of winning.

As I write, Hillary Clinton enjoys a 5.8 percent lead over Trump in the Real Clear Politics average of polls. She has led in all 23 polls released since late July. Her head-to-head advantage this month ranges from one point to 10 points. Political scientists observe that since 1952 the “candidate in the lead two weeks after the conventions ended went on to win the popular vote every single time.” 
These national polls understate Trump’s problems. The Real Clear Politics Electoral College map shows a Clinton victory with 272 electoral votes at the time of writing. Clinton is ahead in Pennsylvania, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Ohio, and Florida. But she is also ahead in North Carolina, and she is tied in Georgia and Arizona (!). The only state Obama won in 2012 that is trending in Trump’s direction is Iowa, where he is eight-tenths of a percent behind Clinton in the Real Clear Politics average.
A turnaround operation costs money. As of June 30, Clinton had $44 million cash on hand. Outside groups supporting her had slightly less, about $40 million. Trump had about half as much — $20 million — on hand, and outside groups supporting him had a fraction of that. The new leadership at Trump Tower is heralding the campaign’s first television ads. But the buy is small, a pittance compared with pro-Clinton television spending ($93 million) and the value of Trump’s earned media, which has been worth billions, almost all of it negative.
Money? Jeb and Trump were tied in mid-July 2015. Jeb raised $100 million. Trump raised like $1.12 from recycling his soda cans. Jeb ended the year down by 30 points to Trump. Overlooked by Washington Wise Guys is Trump's trillion-dollar message: Make America Great Again.

This now is like 2008 when they told me Palin would save McCain, or 2012 when they told me Romney would win. I believed them.

Not this time.

Polls in August showed Trump behind and the people who call themselves experts felt vindicated. Continetti wrote:
On August 18, 2012, President Obama held a slightly more than 3-point advantage over Mitt Romney. When you add money spent by outside groups, the president and Romney were financially competitive.
If Mitt Romney, with all his intelligence, fluency, decency, drive, resources, and victory in the first presidential debate was unable to overcome President Obama’s convention bounce, why would a despised ignoramus with no money, no organization, no political experience, no party unity, and no clue be able to overcome Clinton’s? Does he believe more taco bowls will do the trick?
“It’s preseason, for heaven’s sake,” a frustrated and hapless Mike Pence told the Republican Governors Association earlier this week. “The gun starts on Labor Day.” So it does. But here’s the thing about the preseason: Most of the time it shows just how crappy a team you have.
And of course, there was the headline in the Washington Post:
With a comfortable lead, Clinton begins laying plans for her White House agenda.
But Trump had something Romney did not: a message.

He didn't go out and whine that gee, it is hard to win when 47 percent of the voters are on welfare and will automatically vote Democrat (that was the heart of the 47 percent comment).

Unencumbered by a large staff, and not needing to waste nights with fancy snoots to raise money, The Donald hit the trail like Harry Truman and gave them hell. He expanded the law-and-order message to include black people who live in hellholes run by Democrats, such as Chiraq. He pointed to his opponent's biggest failing: her health. While the talking heads who feign conservatism were nattering on about her latest scandals, Trump was hitting her Achilles heel. She is sick and tired.

(They are a rather stupid lot. They keep saying he will implode and that a scandal will bring her down -- despite all evidence to the contrary. Trump has said stuff for more than a year and has only grown. Clinton survived decades of scandals.)

So what has happened since August 17? Hillary states have fallen into the tossup file like leaves in autumn:

Wisconsin -- gone on August 31. Last Republican to win the state? Reagan in 1984.

Pennsylvania -- gone on September 2. Last Democrat to win without the state? Harry Truman in 1948.

Then Virginia, New Hampshire, and now, Michigan. All tossups. 

Trump has not added to his total. Yet. She still enjoys 209-154 advantage in the Electoral College. 

This reflects a national lead of three points, down from 7.9 on August 9.

The gun started on Labor Day. A week later, Clinton fell. She will get back up. She may even win by a landslide. 

But I doubt it today as much as I did a month ago, when I said Trump will win big.


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  1. What was it Yogi said? "It ain't over 'til it's over."

    1. It ain't over til the fat lady sings. Maybe she will choke on a Streisand tune

    2. "What was it Yogi said?"

      "Hey, Boo-Boo, let's go get us a picnic basket of deplorables."

  2. Illary may still prevail at the polls but at least Trump is waging a real campaign. That's way more than can be said of McCain and Roll-Over Romney.

  3. Too bad Colorado is not a Toss Up. Of course that makes me Toss Up.

  4. Any poll taken before The Fall is nonsense anyway.

    Right now, the LA Times has Trump up 3.

    I'd say the tide is turning.

  5. A week is a year in politics. Hillary's been holed below the waterline.

  6. Hillary's landslide has turned into a Trump tidal wave. On the Dem side, the warning has gone out to don their life vests and man the life boats of the listing ship Queen Clinton. And remember Democrat girly boys, gender preference doesn't count, it's women and children first!

  7. Hillary lost the wave; she didn't shout COWABUNGA soon enough. Or loud enoough.

  8. Winter is coming. So is the Trump avalanche. She'll snap like a tree being overrun by a ton of snow racing down the slopes of Mt. Washington. She'll never know what hit her.

  9. Nobody with a half a brain is buying her crap anymore.