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Saturday, September 24, 2016

Remember when Trump would hurt down ticket?

The one consistency in this election is the eerily long string of wrong predictions from the experts in Washington.

From ABC on May 5:
Donald Trump's likely presidential nomination could have a trickle-down effect for other political races this cycle.
The impact of likely having Trump at the top of the ballot come November is already being used as a weapon in some races, and apparently has at least one senior Republican concerned about his re-election.
"Some Republicans will come back to the fold, hold their noses, and vote, but many won't," said James Campbell, a professor of political science at the University at Buffalo.
"I suspect that there will be a good number who will go to the polls and just skip the presidential contest, but there will be many who will just sit out the election completely and this will hurt every Republican candidate," he added.
The prediction was illustrated by a large photo of John McCain, whom the media portrayed as the Devil in 2008 but now embraces as a Martyr who is up for re-election.

Time passes and what do we have now?

From the Hill:
DSCC shifts dollars out of Florida and Ohio
The top group helping Democrats win Senate seats is canceling advertising in Florida and Ohio to invest more heavily in Missouri and North Carolina.
The financial re-jiggering by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee spells the latest disappointment for Ohio Democratic Senate hopeful Ted Strickland, who is being abandoned by the party as he plummets in the polls. It's also ominous for Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy, who's fighting incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio in Florida.  
By shifting cash, the Democrats are revealing two elements of their strategy that would have surprised anyone 18 months ago: They believe they can win in Missouri and North Carolina. 
A DSCC official confirmed the cancellation of Florida and Ohio buys for the period between Oct. 4 and 10. The source said the DSCC has put an additional $2 million into Missouri and $4.2 million into North Carolina, as well as $2.5 million into Indiana, where former Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh is looking to win back his seat.
Republicans must win 24 seats just to keep the status quo. To put that in perspective, both Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984 had 49-state sweeps and the best they did was take 22 Senate seats.

But Trump is aiding Republicans by eschewing large donations. Instead of the presidency, Republican donors are investing in the Senate. Meanwhile, Clinton is sucking every dollar from the Democratic donors. The DSCC money being shifted is less than $10 million, hardly enough to make a dent in three states.

Writing off Ohio and Florida make sense, where popular Republican senators right now are up well past the margin of error, and Trump holds slight leads. Missouri seems a stretch as Trump has a big lead, although the Republican incumbent's lead is in the margin of error. It is telling that Democrats seem to have written off Harry Reid's home state.


My new book, "Trump the Press," is a fun read that details how the experts missed the rise of Trump. Remember how they said Trump was just running to help Hillary? Read the reviews in the right column.

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  1. It's actually surprising how well the vulgarians are now planning in their living rooms across America. Floridians could have taken little Marco out in a second by going with Beruff (who heavily coat-tailed Trump as if he was a cuban clone), but instead, they strategically went with Rubio to present the party in the Senate after Trump takes the helm. That was no mistake, as dems suggest down here. Now, Rubio ads run non-stop against Murphy who is warm road kill in this race. Americans for Prosperity, a pac, is specifically targeting independents in direct mailings, not republicans on Murphy. The blue ticket is essentially over in FL. Forget about the Dade county double speak. When Monroe county (essentially Key West) completely crosses over in the primary for Trump, against the backdrop of a very long history of flakey moonbat liberal rule, you know somethings in the wind. The best will come from the upper left column of the ballot in November...write it down. And, folks in other states are operating the same way. It's a cage match.

    1. What are you talking about?

    2. It seemed pretty clear to me, but I live in Florida. Murphy is toast and the Democrat in his old district seems to think he is running against Allen West. Sad.

  2. Dems acting scared. Who woulda thunk it?

  3. Too bad the Republicans did not realize this earlier.

  4. This was realized 2 months ago by the RNC.

    The media and the NeverTrumpers weren't paying attention.

    1. I believe most of the Never Trumpers want to actually lose this election. Just because.

    2. "Just because" they would be happy as clams with a President Hillary.