Real Clear Politics just moved it from "leans Clinton" to toss-up as her lead in the polls dropped to within the margin of error.
Obama carried ten of the fifteen states that Real Clear Politics now lists as a toss-up.
In all, the score is now Clinton 188 to 165 over Trump with 185 Electoral Votes up for grabs in those fifteen states.
Hillary was up 272 to 154 a month ago. You need 270 to win.
With no toss-ups, that lead was 362 to 176 in early August.
Now it is down to 292 to 246. A flip of Florida would win it for Trump.
Meanwhile, Larry Sabato has it 272 to 215 with 51 toss-up. He had it 348 to 190 just a month ago with no toss-ups. Sabato said in August Trump's only hope of winning was a tie which would send the election into the House.
Let’s suppose Trump gains steam in the fall, maybe after some entertaining or overpowering debate performances. (This is a hypothetical, not a prediction.) Where could he grab states currently in our Democratic column? Three big states that are perfectly capable of voting Republican stand out: Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio.
To this let’s add Iowa. So far Trump is faring better in the Hawkeye State than in other competitive swing states. It’s not difficult to see why. Almost half of Iowa’s electorate will likely consist of non-college whites, while minority voters will probably comprise less than 10%. Clinton has never been a favorite at Iowa’s caucus time, though she secured a paper-thin victory in February 2016 after a third-place finish in 2008. Democrats will have to work hard to gain these six EVs in November.
Returning to ground level, however, suppose Trump wins all the Romney states (206 EVs, which includes North Carolina and NE-2) and he adds Florida, Ohio, and Iowa. Trump will be at 259, still short 11 EVs. It isn’t at all obvious where the extra 11 would come from, though the easiest path might be Nevada (six EVs) and New Hampshire (four) to produce a 269-269 tie. Presumably, the House of Representatives will remain Republican and at least 26 states will have a unit vote in favor of the GOP and Trump. Presumably. Or will there be defections in a few strategically placed states?
And wait — didn’t we just change New Hampshire to Likely Democratic? Daydreams and nightmares don’t last long in the August hothouse of 2016.He was wrong throughout the nomination season.
They keep forgetting the VRP factor.
Voters R Pissed.
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