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Sunday, September 18, 2016

Experts look at the wrong electoral map

So far the Electoral College analysis of the Trump-Clinton race consists of taking the results of 2008, subtracting a few Republican states and saying voilĂ , Hillary is clobbering The Donald.

That is dumb. The pursuit of ignorance by political scientists this year is worthy of a book (which of course I just happen to have written.)

I also offer another Electoral College map that reflects the historic shift not seen since 1930, when Hoover crashed and burned his Republican Party in the mid-term election and subsequently in the next presidential election gave FDR the first of his four consecutive landslide victories.

Republicans took 84 years to recover, and they have under the feckless leadership of Obama, which turned most of the nation red at the state level. These self-anointed experts ignore Republican control of state legislatures to a degree that is mindless.

A real Electoral College map based on state legislative control (giving Republicans Nebraska, which is officially non-partisan but Republican nonetheless) shows Trump ahead 314-142 with 82 Electoral College votes in toss-up states.

I realize that things are not as simple as that. The South became a Republican presidential juggernaut under Reagan but remained solidly Democratic at the statehouse-level until the end of the 20th century when a few state legislatures began flipping Republican.

But the difference now is that Obama has Hoovered the Democratic Party by over-reaching and over-playing his hand. He surrendered Iraq and Afghanistan to the Islamic State, screwed up health care, kept the economy from growing, and bankrupted the national treasury.

Applying 2008's map to 2016 ignores the political sea-change outside of Washington. Trump is ahead of Hillary by 172 Electoral College votes according to my model. We shall see how this plays.


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  1. Two things:

    1) You need to start putting single quotes around terms like 'Expert' since they so often ain't.

    2) From your lips to God's ears, Don.

  2. New York is gonna go Trump. And once that happens, just watch the dominoes fall from there. Yes, Big D, this is gonna be a blowout. I'm kinda worried about West Virginia though. If Donald takes 92 percent of the vote, what will the country think of us?


  3. See if you can find anything in common between this Democrat, the KY House Speaker, and the national Democrats represented by Hillary. So when the God-fearing Democrats go to vote, will they vote the party line?

  4. The take-out from this election looks set to be: When Trump wins, he wins big, and when Clinton loses, she loses big.

    And as for her politically correct drones and rent seekers, well, the worthless servant with the single talent springs to mind. Outer darkness, weeping, gnashing of teeth, that sort of thing.

    1. Yeah man. Did you see Hill's little airplane presser today? That woman is completely out of gas. And the nearest filling station is miles away. This is a dead campaign.

  5. The recently re-emerged Mark Steyn had this to say:

    "I also addressed Hillary's "basket of deplorables" and tied it in to the demonization of pro-Brexit Britons in the United Kingdom:

    When you tell half the electorate that they're bigots, racists, sexists, homophobes, transphobes, Islamophobes (and don't worry, there'll be a new phobe along any minute) then something else sometimes happens. People go quiet or give dishonest answers to pollsters.

    Which is why the Remainers were stunned by the Brexit vote - and why November may bring a similar surprise."

    1. Heard that on Friday. As much as I love Rush, there are times I wish Mark had the show. Boy Howdy he is good when he gets on a roll!

    2. Would listen to Steyn over Rush any day of the week. Rush at heart is still an establishment Bushie and got dragged to the immigration issue kicking and screaming.

  6. I think that second map is closer to reality.

    And you may want to color NM and ME pink

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  8. Come D-Day (as in Deplorable), all Americans will realize that Hillary Clinton's campaigning resembles nothing so much as Charlie Brown's pitching.