So far the Electoral College analysis of the Trump-Clinton race consists of taking the results of 2008, subtracting a few Republican states and saying voilà, Hillary is clobbering The Donald.More states turning pink and red. Latest @FiveThirtyEight forecast is sobering for Dems. https://t.co/kb3SHekx2X pic.twitter.com/1TQumIoI8t— Jim Roberts (@nycjim) September 17, 2016
That is dumb. The pursuit of ignorance by political scientists this year is worthy of a book (which of course I just happen to have written.)
I also offer another Electoral College map that reflects the historic shift not seen since 1930, when Hoover crashed and burned his Republican Party in the mid-term election and subsequently in the next presidential election gave FDR the first of his four consecutive landslide victories.
Republicans took 84 years to recover, and they have under the feckless leadership of Obama, which turned most of the nation red at the state level. These self-anointed experts ignore Republican control of state legislatures to a degree that is mindless.
A real Electoral College map based on state legislative control (giving Republicans Nebraska, which is officially non-partisan but Republican nonetheless) shows Trump ahead 314-142 with 82 Electoral College votes in toss-up states.
I realize that things are not as simple as that. The South became a Republican presidential juggernaut under Reagan but remained solidly Democratic at the statehouse-level until the end of the 20th century when a few state legislatures began flipping Republican.
But the difference now is that Obama has Hoovered the Democratic Party by over-reaching and over-playing his hand. He surrendered Iraq and Afghanistan to the Islamic State, screwed up health care, kept the economy from growing, and bankrupted the national treasury.
Applying 2008's map to 2016 ignores the political sea-change outside of Washington. Trump is ahead of Hillary by 172 Electoral College votes according to my model. We shall see how this plays.
My new book, "Trump the Press," is a fun read that details how the experts missed the rise of Trump.
Please purchase "Trump the Press" through Create Space.
The book also available in Kindle and as a paperback on Amazon.
Autographed copies area available. Email me at DonSurber@GMail.com for details.