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Thursday, September 15, 2016

CNN Poll schlongs WSJ theory

A year ago, I would not have imagined using CNN to show up the Wall Street Journal. But the formerly conservative paper has turned into the Never Trump Street Journal, and I must tell the truth.

Two months ago, Daniel Henninger wrote:
I think, Donald Trump simply can’t win in Ohio [without] John Kasich. 
John Kasich is still steamed. 
As of this week, Gov. Kasich was not even going to appear at the Cleveland convention center. Speaking to a Cleveland TV station last week, he said he’s still waiting for Mr. Trump, like Saul on the road to Damascus, to undergo a political conversion: “If it doesn’t come, then I probably will not find my way towards endorsing.”
As these columns noted recently, among the perils of routinely insulting one’s political opponents in public is they never forget. That could be a problem for Donald Trump because Ohio is a turnout state. To win, you must flush out every possible voter.
In rebuttal, I wrote:
There is no doubt that Kasich is the most liked governor of Ohio in my lifetime, even exceeding Jim Rhodes.
But Trump can win without him. Trump kept Kasich below 50% in the Ohio primary. And Romney lost Ohio despite Kasich's support in 2012. He's a governor, not a magician.
Now CNN has a new poll out. Trump is up outside the margin of error in Ohio, by four points among registered voters, and by five among likely voters

That is in a four-way race. In a two-way, he is up by three among registered voters, four among likely voters.

The numbers can and will change between now and November 8. Of that there is no question. But the poll refutes -- not rebuts, but refutes -- the notion that Trump needs Kasich in order to take the Buckeye State.

Portman is up by 21 among likely voters in his re-election effort against former Governor Ted Strickland, which may help Trump. However, the real point is down ballot means nothing. The public sees them as two different races.

Oh, and Trump's favorables beat Hillary's.

The poll was taken September 7-12.

***

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8 comments:

  1. We are at the point now where the never-Trumpers need to start falling over themselves grasping for a piece of Trump's coattails.

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  2. I believe there is a strong but unapparent undercurrent for Trump in Ohio. It will continue to grow until Election Day. - Elric

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  3. Being late to the party puts one at the end of the reception line and then the scattered remains of the buffet.

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  4. As one living in NE OH, Kasich isn't as liked as he was before he jacked up the sales tax to balance the budget.

    That said, if he could deliver OH, he'd have done it in '12.

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    1. Kasich is the Black Night of Republican
      politcs,"tis only a flesh wound.."
      TG

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    2. Once a Knight, always a Knight,
      Twice a Knight, and ya doin' alright!

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  5. My impression (from far away) is that Trump and Kasich are fishing in different ponds. Kasich always struck me as a guy chasing the progressives, whereas Trump eschews the progressives to go after what we would call here the "Howard's battlers" - blue collar workers who would usually be rusted-on Democrats. The industrial left is departing from the elite left and Trump is pushing hard on that faultline. It certainly worked for John Howard as he won four terms as our PM.

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