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Sunday, September 25, 2016

Clinton: Goodbye Columbus

A month ago, Clinton road high in Ohio with an outside-the-margin-of-error lead over Trump in the Real Clear Politics average of polls. Nate Silver gave her a 77 percent chance of taking Ohio.

Today, CNN reported Clinton has ceded Ohio to Trump, even though Trump has only inched slightly higher than her in the polls to an average lead of 1.8 points. Silver now gives Trump a 61 percent chance.

Nevertheless, Jeff Zeleny of CNN said this morning:
“It’s been 20 days since Hillary Clinton stepped foot into this classic battleground state, and she’s not expected to visit it again in the month of September. That is a nod to the political reality they’re facing her campaign. She is struggling mightily among white voters.”
Uh-oh, Spaghetti-Os.

Ohio ain't exactly lily white. African-Americans make up 12 percent of its population, which is slightly under the national average of 12.6 percent.

However, Ohio is 83.2 percent white, which is above the national average of 77.7 percent.

If the white vote is enough to flip Ohio, then it may be enough to flip the nation. Big league.

But something else is going on. Republican Senator Rob Portman is so far ahead in his re-election race -- a double digit lead -- that the national Democratic Party has pulled stakes. This was a state they thought they would pick off just six months ago.

Let's go back to that last visit. Both Clinton and Trump campaigned there on Labor Day. She drew hundreds in Cleveland. He drew thousands in Canfield, which is an exit on Interstate 77 just south of Cleveland.

She is a terrible campaigner, and an expensive one. The Clinton Election Machine is sucking up donor dollars, and that hurts Senate campaigns -- although I think Strickland's career of failures and gubernatorial disaster sank him. Bob Evans campaigned against the guy 20 years ago. Bob Evans! His only politics were Buckeye football.

Meanwhile her Electoral College map is shrinking as her national poll numbers sink. I have said over and over again, the Electoral College map is for entertainment purposes only. Trump wins by 2 percent or more nationally, he is in.

She can win without Ohio.

But I doubt it.


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  1. What is the accepted wisdom about Ohio - you can't win the presidency without it?

    I wonder when the Dems are going to figure out that hitching your wagon to BLM cip-killing rhetoric is an electoral disaster.

    1. They don't like BLM in Cleveland for some reason. Having a large black middle class will do that

  2. I see McConnell is all happy about the bipartisan spending bill, which means we will give the dems everything they wanted including the internet and billions in dollars to keep the progressive government going over the cliff. Nice job republicans.

    1. What you mean, Republicans, Ke Mo Sabe.(sorry for the spelling)

  3. Conceding OH is pretty much like conceding everything.

    Love to see the internal polling.

  4. Hillary could take the West coast and most of East coast and win, leaving the great unwashed, I mean center of the country to Trump. You know the Fly Over Country.

  5. "Could" is not "a lock". A possibility, for sure.

  6. Maybe the democrats have the vote rigging system in place so they can spend their time somewhere else.

  7. And Kasich is saying, "How can Trump win this state without me?"