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Wednesday, August 24, 2016

What happened to Hillary's 18-point lead, Mister Bloomberg?

A Fox News poll released on Wednesday showed Clinton with an 11-point lead over Trump, while a CBS/New York Times poll published earlier this week found Clinton with a 10-point lead over Trump. A Bloomberg survey on Wednesday put the gap even wider, with Clinton leading Trump by 18 points.
-- Maxwell Tani, March 24, 2016

That was then. Her lead is melting like the Wicked Witch of the West encountered that bucket of water.

"Notably, in five months, Clinton’s lead over Trump in the Bloomberg poll has shrunk from 18-points to within the margin of error," Sharyl Attkinson (formerly of CBS News) reported.

There are a couple of things at work here. Many Republicans still held out hope that someone else would win the nomination. Trump wound up with 500 more delegate votes than the required 1,237 minimum. Now Republican's rank and file have rallied behind him. He gets 87 of the Republican vote in the latest Bloomberg poll.

But she went from an overwhelming majority of 54 percent to an underwhelming 47 percent, while he rose from 36 percent to 44 percent. He is winning independents.

From Attkinson:
In the most recent poll, the spread between Clinton and Trump in a two-person race was down to just 3 percentage points, Clinton at 45% and Trump at 42%. That’s within the margin of error. When Libertarian and Green Party candidates are put in the mix, it’s Clinton 42% and Trump 40% –again within the margin of error.
But this notable trend isn’t reflected in the Bloomberg write-up here. Instead, the reporter chose to use the poll numbers that look better for Clinton: ones that added in “leaners.” What are leaners? Respondents who were first asked who they’d vote for, then answered they didn’t plan to vote or didn’t know who they’d vote for, and then were pressed to pick a candidate they were leaning toward, anyway. This is how Bloomberg got to the 6-point spread cited in its headline…double the actual spread of 3%.
The media is in an all-out war on Trump.

Nixon couldn't survive one. Reagan's was not as bad. I would say that the conservative press is against Trump -- except the conservative press was just a fa├žade for lobbyist-paid hucksters at National Review, Fox News and other outlets. For example, Jonah Goldberg actually works for the American Enterprise Institute -- a tax-exempt group funded by bored millionaires and special interests. But Trump is made of sterner stuff. He will not just survive this; he will prevail. (My nod to Faulkner.)

And yes, I am making new friends this year. Mine eyes are opened wide. Those who deride America First are not patriots and they can go to hell -- and they can take Erick Erickson with them. I have no intention of making up after the election with those who hate America. You can be against Trump without being an -- well, it rhymes with glass bowl.

Anyway, the polls are not fixed. He's down and a three-point loss is still a loss. But the reporting is what is awful. Don't let the reporting bother you. Trailing by the margin of error in August is merely motivation -- especially when Trump was down 18 points in March.

Make no mistake, this election is on Trump. He can and is rallying the nation behind him.

***

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19 comments:

  1. The polls may not be fixed, but they all have some kind of skew. Trump has weathered a brutal media before and came out a winner. In fact, their hysteria is exposing them for the crap weasels they are. All the flying monkeys in the world can't keep Hillary from being Hillary, and I think eventually she will be hoisted by her own petard. - Elric

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  2. I see some articles today saying Hillary is just trying to run out the clock. As a sports nut and former athlete, I can tell you that tactic never works. You lose momentum, the players get apathetic, and then you lose. Can't wait for the first debate. Boy what a spanking that's going to be...

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    1. Agree, brother. I'd put the bathroom break over/under at 3.

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  3. I trust that glass bowl has a wuckfit fish swimming in it.

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  4. This is the reason she has scheduled a speech on the alt right tomorrow. Her advisors have decided that the way to win is to try and make people feel revulsion toward Trump if he refuses to repudiate them, and to make the alt right stick to him even if he does. They think they have a win-win on their hands. I don't know how Trump will respond, but I think he already has a strategy for handling this. I would bet that he doesn't even address any of the questions she raises, but ups the ante by challenging her to repudiate BLM and pushing her health issues further. The way to get the biggest audience for this would be to schedule a speech billed as a response to her charges and then do what liberals have done for the last hundred years. Change the subject. To Hillary.

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    1. And asking VERY pointed questions about her Foundation and all those foreign contributions.

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  5. My gut feel is that the polls tell us almost nothing about the actual vote percentages because the electorate responds to Trump in a different manner than it responded to a standard RINO (e.g. Romney or McCain).

    The electorate responds to Trump in a manner similar to the way it responded to Reagan (i.e. Reagan Democrats). This makes this election difficult to model accurately.

    But what the polls do tell us is the trend. And lately the trend has been Trump's friend.

    Steve in Greensboro

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  6. These fake polls are part of the Clinton psy-ops against Trump supporters, intended to discourage them from voting. From now to election day, we are going to hear Clinton is in the lead by 10, 20, 50, 110 points---whatever---none of which claims should be believed for a minute. She is so confident of victory in November, they tell us, Hillary is already setting up a transition team and picking her cabinet members and setting the schedule for her first 100 days in office. Trumpsters, why bother going to the polls? It's in the bag for H! So they claim. In your wet dreams, Progs.

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    1. That's exactly how I feel, IA. Fu-- the naysayers cause they don't mean a thing. 311. Righteous. We're gonna go out and vote and then sit back and laugh at these media tools...

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  7. Have to disagree on the polls.

    Consider the case of Monmouth where a 2 point lead by Trump was fudged to a 4 point lead by the Beast.

    When called on it, Monmouth had to refigure and suddenly it was a 1 point lead for Trump.

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  8. If I were in charge of the Trump campaign I would prefer to be trailing a bit. Imagine if you will how much more opposition he would face if he were leading.

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  9. Random data point here, from rural America: I was out driving around today. I saw a number of Trump signs. The number of Hillary signs was ZERO. Stopped for lunch, a woman came in with a T-shirt reading "BORDER WALL Construction Co."

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  10. I think many folks are being coy about supporting The Donald, the Left has taken up the ol' Abusing The Opposition shtick (Jim Crow, anyone?) and polite people will stay silent.

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  11. I don't know whether the polls are right or wrong. I don't know whether Hillary is ahead or behind. I don't know whether Trump is the best or the worst candidate the GOP could have offered. I don't care. All of this navel gazing is pointless. But, what I have written before, I will repeat: any pollster or pundit who is making a prediction on the outcome of the upcoming election at this stage and who turns out to have predicted wrong, he or she should have to give up a pinky---left hand or right hand, I don't care---as their atonement for being mistaken. If they want me to pay attention to them, they need to have some (real) skin in the game.

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  12. Polls aren't "fixed" but they are only as good as the sample. All pollsters have to predict turnout to get their samples-- usually they can use the previous GE turnout as a model, but models can be "tweaked" legitimately when other factors warrant it (for example, actual registration of Rs going up in FL, etc). Nonetheless, the turnout predictions *can* be wrong. So, yes, if the turnout reflects the models the polls use, then Trump losses by 3 points. I'm betting, however, that actual turnout will be different than the models the pollsters are using -- and it will be in Trump's favor.
    ~Angie (Dancing Queen)

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    1. The anger, resentment, and determination of the people WILL be expressed. Still, as expressed (reputably) by Stalin, it's not who votes, but who counts the votes.

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    2. Exactly. And George Soros funded the Secretary of States project for exactly that reason. They control the vote counting. - Elric

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  13. I'm just concerned that Hillary has the support of the group that can ultimately decide it all: the Diebold voting machine company

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