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Sunday, August 07, 2016

Trump the polls

Polls are like the stock market averages because they separate the players from the amateurs. The players buy long. The amateurs are bipolar. The market or the polls go in their favor, and they are as high as kites. A downturn and it is the end of the world.

So what do we have?

From Maxwell Tani at Business Insider on Friday:
Republicans have a message for Donald Trump: If you're going to lose, don't drag down other Republicans with you.
In an interview with CNN on Thursday, Sen. Lindsey Graham chided Trump for his recent decision not to endorse House Speaker Paul Ryan and Sen. John McCain in their primary battles with Republican challengers, noting Trump's sinking poll numbers following the Democratic National Convention.
Graham? Seriously? Tani quoted a guy who could not poll 1% in his home state?

Tani said Republicans worried Trump would take down the ticket, and Tani noted: "But polling seems to be bearing out Republicans' worst fears."

At the Washington Post, which Jeff Bezos turned loose as an anti-Trump screed, Philip Bump wrote:
A difficult week for Donald Trump has gotten tougher with the release of several new polls in swing states showing him trailing Hillary Clinton by wide margins. The surveys come hot on the heels of polls from CNN/ORC and Fox News showing that Clinton's got a wide national lead (plus-9 in CNN's, and plus-10 in Fox's). And the bad numbers have been coupled with day after day of negative press for Trump, including his poorly received fight with the family of a soldier killed in Iraq, his declaration at a rally that he "always wanted a Purple Heart" and reports that his campaign staff is becoming demoralized.
It's not hard to see why they would be. Keeping your hopes up on a losing political campaign is a bit like playing Jenga. As more and more pieces get knocked out, it's harder and harder to keep upright. Those pieces can be varied: poor fundraising numbers, gaffes, hard-hitting ads from opponents. They can also be poll numbers -- like these new state polls that knock some significant blocks out of Trump's tower.
So according to Jeff Bezos and company, everyone on Trump's staff is on a suicide watch, eh?

Now from Reuters:
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's lead over Republican rival Donald Trump narrowed to less than 3 percentage points, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Friday, down from nearly eight points on Monday.
About 42 percent of likely voters favored Clinton, to Trump's 39 percent, according to the July 31-Aug. 4 online poll of 1,154 likely voters. The poll had a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning that the results suggest the race is roughly even.
Among registered voters over the same period, Clinton held a lead of five percentage points, down from eight percentage points on Monday, according to the poll.
The reasons behind the shift were unclear.
I remember halftime of Game Seven of this year's NBA finals. Cleveland was down 49-42. I attended that 34-0 shellacking at home in the 1968 NFL championship game. I watched Lester Hayes's interception in a 14-12 AFC championship loss. The Drive. The Fumble. The Two Outs Away From A World Series Win. In each case, I sensed the impending loss. But that Cavs game was different. They had nothing to lose -- hey, their opponent set a record for regular season wins and wining percentage.

There will be ups. And there will be downs. But on November 9, Hillary will wake up and realize once again she will never be president.

Maybe in 2024.


"Trump the Press: Don Surber's take on how the pundits blew the 2016 Republican race" is available as a paperback. Please order here.

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  1. The lying continues to expand both quantitatively and qualitatively on an exponential scale. Keeping track will require logarithmic calculations and a new sort of political scientific notation. We are in the age of post-Newtonian politics, but the notational shorthand to cut through the BS is available in twitter parody accounts. Witness AsianAmericanMan being retweeted by Coulter.

  2. Business Insider has been an anti-Trump rag, and I do mean rag, from the start.

    The Lefty polls are being anchored by an 8 point skew that seems to their base, they can add if needed, but the fact Hillary needs something like that tells you how phony it is. She's down most of the time if you factor in that skew and it's looking once again like the Demos will have to crank up the vote fraud machine to save her.

    Unless enough Trump supporters come out so it can't be done without starting a war.

  3. " Maybe in 2024 "...

    Hah Don, in 2024 should Hillary makes President then she will have broken two glass ceilings.

    One as the 1st woman,(that may be questionable!)to hold that office.

    Two, as the first embalmed President to take office.
    In other words, I don't imagine her highness will be alive in 2024.

    ...but being dead hasn't stopped being counted in the Democrat party in the past now has it !

    Sam C

  4. Polling.....I thought that was cutting the horns off of horned cattle. But I guess it can be used to describe a useless activity too. How do they account for all of us old goobers who won't answer the phone when an unknown number shows up? Accurate huh? Like a two dollar pistol.

  5. Let's all play the long game, which "ain't over til it's over". And, in truth, ain't never over.

  6. Meh.

    Polls: lies + damned lies + invisible hands + blender = whatever you want.

    Remember what Abe Lincoln said: "87.3% of what you see on the Internet isn't real!"

  7. Gateway Pundit flatters Don Surber by going full "Trump the Press" today, showing how wrong the pundits are when it comes to polling. I say, accept no imitation. Get the real thing, buy the original.

  8. With the Press in the Democrats' pocket, can the anti-Trump Pinkerton strikebreakers be far behind?

  9. Alls I need to know is, DJT is drawing 15-20K at his rallies, turning people away due to lack of seats, while Hillary needs to bus in staffers to sit behind her in a high school gym, total crowd estimated about 100. Hell, Kevin Pittsnogle could get a bigger crowd at Martinsburg HS. This race is over.

  10. Commentary Magazine is joining the pile-on, predicting aa Trump loss and describing the long-term political loss that will result from the Manhattan socialite's failure. Commentary hides behind a paywall, except for some freebies, but the article's url follows:

    Here are some snippets:

    It is not hard to see precisely what Trump’s appeal is to his core supporters. The real estate mogul has promised his often overlooked voters that their economic woes are the result of global forces that can be reversed. He has pledged to take a harder-line stance on immigration than any Republican—an issue that has both political and cultural resonance. Trump has unashamedly thrown off the shackles of political correctness that prevent honest dialogue and serve too often as a blunt instrument by which liberal elites shame conservatives into silence. He has gravely wounded the bloated political consultancy by ascending to lead a major party without an expensive, top-heavy infrastructure. To the American populist, Trump has told the right people he doesn’t need them.
    It’s a powerful message, but it’s being delivered by an awful messenger. As the convention season has ended and the general electorate tuned into this race, Trump’s support in the polls has reverted to roughly where it was in early May. [snip]

    There are still three months left in which Trump can turn this around, but there are no more free throws. If Trump is to have a “moment,” he will have to make it happen for himself. That will require a level of discipline he does not possess. [snip]

    Trump boldly cast aside the Republican Party’s 2012 postmortem, which focused on rebuilding the party’s appeal among minorities, women, and student-age voters. Instead, he sought to build a coalition that doubled down on the party’s traditional strength among suburban and exurban white voters. But he has alienated as many whites as he has won. Trump’s prohibitive strength among white working-class voters came at the cost of whites with college degrees—a subset of the electorate Democrats appear set to win for the first time in 60 years. A deep national loss will confirm to Trump skeptics that the voters to whom Trump appealed can be safely ignored. Indeed, to cater to their appetites is to imperil the majority coalition that all presidential aspirants are obsessed with building. Trump’s core constituency will be rendered politically radioactive. [snip]

    The Trump campaign that eschewed staffing, fundraising, advertising, polling, data analytics, and micro-targeting (to say nothing of the paid staff and infrastructure that makes up a traditional ground game) will become a cautionary tale. 2016 will be the control experiment demonstrating precisely why a national campaign cannot function without a billion dollar budget and an army of consultants who understand the craft of winning elections. Those who lent credence to the fantasy that celebrity and name-recognition were all that were required to win a national race will find themselves discredited. [the end]

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