From Sean Trende:
The point here is not that Trump is guaranteed to win. Clinton maintains a large advertising and organizational advantage over Trump. But she has already dumped $50 million in unanswered advertising on his head, with little movement in the polls.She is in trouble. He neutralized her biggest advantage in this race: money. Negative ads bounce off Trump's chest. Any normal Republican candidate -- Jeb, Rubio, Cruz -- would be Dukakis Man Walking by now after such a barrage of ads.
Not Trump. What scandal can Clinton use to dissuade his voters from crawling over broken glass and going to the polls this fall? Divorce? He's had two. Bankruptcy? Four. DUI? He doesn't drink and besides, he has a chauffeur. He gave money to a crooked politician? Yes, and her name is Clinton.
There are two reasons for this invulnerability.
The first of course is leadership. Unlike Clinton, Trump is a leader. He was the captain of his class in military school, elected out of 99 guys. Hillary was valedictorian at Wellesley. That's not leadership but rather the mark of a good advisor. One of the reasons we want a general or a governor as president is they have proven leadership skills. His come from outside of politics.
The second is message. Make America Great Again.
Trump's voters are fed up with the system. It's rigged. She's one of the biggest riggers. Not indicted. And the emails show the skids were greased for her in the primaries.
Not so Trump. They threw the kitchen sink at him. He didn't duck it, but caught it, stood on it, and shouted, "What else do you have?"
Given the trainwreck in Philadelphia this week, the best Hillary can hope for is a dead cat bounce.
I expect Trump's lead to widen after this (check the Real Clear Politics Average the week after the convention ends).
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