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Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Negative ads bounce off Trump's chest

Sean Trende, one of the brains over at Real Clear Politics, wrote the most insightful paragraphs into where the presidential race is.

From Sean Trende:
The point here is not that Trump is guaranteed to win. Clinton maintains a large advertising and organizational advantage over Trump. But she has already dumped $50 million in unanswered advertising on his head, with little movement in the polls.
She is in trouble. He neutralized her biggest advantage in this race: money. Negative ads bounce off Trump's chest. Any normal Republican candidate -- Jeb, Rubio, Cruz -- would be Dukakis Man Walking by now after such a barrage of ads.

Not Trump. What scandal can Clinton use to dissuade his voters from crawling over broken glass and going to the polls this fall? Divorce? He's had two. Bankruptcy? Four. DUI? He doesn't drink and besides, he has a chauffeur. He gave money to a crooked politician? Yes, and her name is Clinton.

There are two reasons for this invulnerability.

The first of course is leadership. Unlike Clinton, Trump is a leader. He was the captain of his class in military school, elected out of 99 guys. Hillary was valedictorian at Wellesley. That's not leadership but rather the mark of a good advisor. One of the reasons we want a general or a governor as president is they have proven leadership skills. His come from outside of politics.

The second is message. Make America Great Again.

Trump's voters are fed up with the system. It's rigged. She's one of the biggest riggers. Not indicted. And the emails show the skids were greased for her in the primaries.

Not so Trump. They threw the kitchen sink at him. He didn't duck it, but caught it, stood on it, and shouted, "What else do you have?"

Given the trainwreck in Philadelphia this week, the best Hillary can hope for is a dead cat bounce.

I expect Trump's lead to widen after this (check the Real Clear Politics Average the week after the convention ends).

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  1. Please, lets retire the "dead cats bounce" phrase. It pisses off cat lovers. And, by using it in conjunction with Hillary it maligns Cats.

    1. Technically, there is no such thing as a dead cat bounce. It's a dead cat splat.

    2. Let's don't.

      After this week, we'll need some background for the Hillary Bounce.

    3. Wasn't there a "Baghdad Bounce" phrase kicking around in George Bush Snr.'s day?

    4. The expression "dead cat bounce" is NOT about a dead cat literally bouncing -- it is about something insignificant -- such as a politician's cat dying -- that creates short-lived sympathy from the public towards the politician, causing his approval ratings to go up a bit.

    5. What's the big deal? It doesn't hurt any cats' feelings.

  2. Teflon Trump.

    1. Superman versus Pee Wee Herman.

    2. Andy Kaufman:


    3. I got that dead cat bounce phrase from friends working in stock and options trading. The market goes into free fall and then makes a piddly little rebound -- "dead cat bounce." So that's where I go the dead cat bounce phrase.

  3. It looks like the Democrat Convention is going to become more divided rather than unify. Trump is certainly going to seem more Presidential after this week's bloodletting. - Elric

  4. I don't know any cat lovers.

  5. I think that Obama is behind the DNC email release. He wants a horrific convention that results in Hillary pulling out, and then being replaced by Michelle Obama.

    1. You may well be right.

      Barry's been waiting 8 years to get even with Willie.

      And, as that old Kenyan proverb says, revenge is a dish best served cold.

    2. My bet is Jarrett is behind the release.
      Nothing's uglier or nastier than two women trying to out-power each other.

  6. Paul Baker has a good point.

    It's hard to believe that such a flawed candidate, who is reviled not just by the right but by both sides, could be TPTB's choice to continue filling the iron rice bowls of the Globalist establishment.

    There's something happening here and I don't know what it is... do you, Mrs. Jones? All I know is, it smells "off."

    Keep your powder dry.

  7. Hillary has passed apogee, and begun the long, long fall back to Earth. Re-entry is scheduled for early November. Oh fudge, there goes the heat shield.

  8. "Given the trainwreck in Philadelphia this week, the best Hillary can hope for is a dead cat bounce.

    I expect Trump's lead to widen after this (check the Real Clear Politics Average the week after the convention ends)."

    I've been thinking that for some time.

  9. The only bounce hilLIARy will get will be something invented and sold by the far left lying psychotic democrat party apparatchiks who pretend to be journalists. Little George Step, F Chuck, Mad Dog Matthews (apologies to dog lovers), maybe George Will can come out and pompously throw around some polysyllabic words and scold all Trumpsters. The whole show looks like a bunch of lunatics who have gone off the rails (and their medications), but good.

  10. Hey, Don, I have to ask: what is a "god advisor"?

  11. Answer: A typo. This new laptop (I burn through one every three years) has problems with double letters. I apologize. I do spell check, but I do miss.

  12. Couldn't help thinking you were about to praise Trump as following Frankie and doing it "his way".

    Just about every negative against Trump can be turned and used against Clinton, with the added media hypocrisy of big anti-Rep coverage, mostly minimal anti-Dem coverage.

    The BIG point is that a huge amount of Rep anti-Trump feeling is the idea that he will lose -- if he "can" win / lead in the polls, the mild-anti-Trump Reps will get on board.

    "America loves a winner, and will not tolerate a loser..." (no longer quite as true as when GC Scott acted as Patton); those who support Clinton will be supporting both a crook AND a loser.

    [God / Good ... both are spelled correctly, but there's not yet a good "meaning checker". Maybe Watson in a few years.]

  13. You miss the biggest reason he is immune to their negative ads, a critical mass of the electorate have realized it's all B.S.

    Trump is Hitler? Hell, they said the same about GWB so much the charge has no power. Plus, his supporters know they aren't Nazis, so the accusation gets dismissed.

    Trump is a racist? Hell, that's been so overplayed over the last seven years that it seems you can be accused of being racist for ordering black coffee.

    Trump is sexist? So what if Trump said nasty things about a woman he doesn't like; he's also said plenty of nasty things about men he doesn't like. An equal opportunity insulter, if you ask me. If anything, claiming that a woman can't take the same verbal hard knocks a man can sounds sexist to me.